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Mackay narrowly stuck with Labor through the 2012 wipeout and has been Labor held for the past century barring a brief independent stint with Ed Casey. Yet it and Thuringowa were the only two regional city seats (besides the two in Toowoomba) to record a swing against Labor in 2020.
It may be on a path towards a situation like Bundaberg in the early 2000s? A historically safe regional city Labor seat that had its margin eaten away every election until it finally fell to the Nationals and remains with an LNP lean today (despite currently very marginally being held by Labor.)
Wondering if Crisafulli will put in an effort here. I’m skeptical it will flip now but it might be worth a try depending on whether or not the LNP take a truly decisive lead in the polls.
@Laine Crisafulli would probably at least try to win Mackay and Rockhampton.
You pointed out Bundaberg flipping from Labor to the LNP. I should note that one thing that contributed to Labor losing Bundaberg in 2006 was the “Dr. Death” scandal. Basically an Indian surgeon named Jayant Patel worked at Bundaberg Base Hospital and was deemed guilty of fraud and was responsible the deaths of 87 patients. According to Wikipedia:
“The city’s urban population has long made the seat a Labor stronghold. This changed in 2005 when the practices of rogue surgeon Jayant Patel at the Bundaberg Base Hospital were uncovered. The Beattie government was seriously embarrassed by the subsequent Commissions of Inquiry into the matter, and as a result the seat was considered winnable for the Nationals.”
The issue with Rockhampton/Mackay is that the LNP primary vote in generally low. The reemergence of One Nations in the second half of the 2010s has meant that Labor has not been able to rebuild its margin to the Beattie/Bligh years. CPV has also meant the the ONP votes dont just exhaust compared to the past. I would say this is true in Bundaberg as well where Labor has not been able to solidify their position since regaining the seat in 2015. While there may be a TPP swing against Labor in Mackay in 2020 they did in fact increase their primary vote at the expense of ONP but the LNP just did it by more hence the swing to LNP. For the LNP to win they need a strong flow of ONP preferences but ONP is less disciplined in its preference flows compared to Greens to Labor. It is what enabled the Labor to win Higgins with only 28% primary.
I think anything under the 6% margin is at risk of falling to the lnp. Under those circumstances they will get to 47 seats to form a majority.
In all honesty, I actually think the LNP can finally win Mackay and Rockhampton. It’s widely predicted that the LNP will win the next state election (that’s what I think will occur too) but the swing outside Brisbane will be larger than the swing in Brisbane. I predict that the LNP will have a swing to them of at least 8% outside South East Queensland (as a whole), which would be enough to narrowly win Rockhampton and enough to win Mackay with a 2% margin.
Mackay is one to watch throughout the election. The margin is not insurmountable for the LNP but it’s surprising how little effort they’re giving this seat. No candidate and only five months to go.
Labor MP, Julieanne Gilbert doesn’t seem to be working that hard to hold it. One Nation also polls relatively well here and the LNP could actually win this, with their preferences.
The thing about Rocky and Mackay is that there won’t be money to throw at them when LNP win, so why campaign there much?
If those electorates vote LNP anyway, well it’s on them, but at least Labor won’t be able to claim that LNP didn’t keep their promises.