To provide the best experiences, we use technologies like cookies to store and/or access device information. Consenting to these technologies will allow us to process data such as browsing behavior or unique IDs on this site. Not consenting or withdrawing consent, may adversely affect certain features and functions.
The technical storage or access is strictly necessary for the legitimate purpose of enabling the use of a specific service explicitly requested by the subscriber or user, or for the sole purpose of carrying out the transmission of a communication over an electronic communications network.
The technical storage or access is necessary for the legitimate purpose of storing preferences that are not requested by the subscriber or user.
The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for statistical purposes.
The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for anonymous statistical purposes. Without a subpoena, voluntary compliance on the part of your Internet Service Provider, or additional records from a third party, information stored or retrieved for this purpose alone cannot usually be used to identify you.
The technical storage or access is required to create user profiles to send advertising, or to track the user on a website or across several websites for similar marketing purposes.
Unlock with Patreon
As of the most recent enrolment figures release, this division is at 18.62% deviation from
average district enrolment and growing. Or 46,601 total electors.
I’m sure this can be attributed to the growth of Yarrabilba in particular. With new large land releases anticipated to take place in neighbouring Kairabah over the next 5 years.
Coomera is at 53,093 electors.
The overlapping Federal division of Wright, could potentially be put into marginal territory within the next couple of election cycles given the increasing weight that Yarrabilba (a currently Labor leaning region) will have on the division results – as well as likely boundary adjustments due to the population increase.
@SEQ after the next federal election there’ll be another federal redistribution in Queensland (and there will also be another state redistribution after the next state election), and chances are Logan will be moved out of Wright and into another seat, maybe Forde or Rankin but possibly a new seat since it’s been a while since a new seat has been created or an old seat has been abolished in Queensland, in fact it’s been a while since a seat’s been renamed in Queensland too.
There should be a Sunshine Coast seat called Irwin, Blair’s win or lose for the majors (if it loses Ipswich to Oxley or a new seat then it’s a safe LNP seat but if it loses the Somerset Valley region (e.g Esk) to Maranoa then it’s a fairly safe or safe Labor seat), same as Ryan (if the inner-city suburbs west of Moggill are moved into another seat then Ryan would be notionally LNP but if it loses the outer suburbs west of (and including) Moggill then it’s still a Greens seat), etc.
@nether portal il second your call for a seat named logan
Irwin sry
There’s explosive population growth all across this district. Yarrabilba is the largest, but there’s also new housing estates in Greenbank, Jimboomba, Logan Reserve, Logan Village, Park Ridge, and South Maclean.
Brettlyn “Beaver” Neal has been announced as the ONP candidate for this seat. Former candidate for Cook I believe.
Labor retain – this seat is interesting given the massive population boom, which I suspect helps Labor.
At the next redistribution, I suspect a new seat around Jimboomba will be carved out and Logan will shrink considerably.
The LNP’s vote is usually in the 20s in this seat and I can’t see them winning it this time.
Yes Logan has rapidly climbed in its enrolment over the last 12 months to exceed the statewide average division enrolment by 20%. Much of this would be along the two Beaudesert corridors to Beenleigh and Browns Plains, including the periphery of Jimboomba as you identified.
At the Federal election, Yarrabilba had an interesting booth. Very fragmented with both Greens and ONP close to 20%. UAP exceeding 10%, LNP managing just under a quarter of the vote, and Labor close to 30% of the vote. One of ALPs best booths in Wright, ultimately delivering ALP the edge on TPP.
I wouldn’t be surprised if there is a swing of up to 10% in this division, still unlikely to overcome this large margin but possible. I would also posit that this division is vulnerable of being a non-classic contest on TPP if ALP and LNP are unable to command a half of the vote, like some of the booths in Wright in 2022. ONP the most likely to appear in the TPP if it is non-classic.