Jordan – Queensland 2024

Labor hold. Charis Mullen is a great local MP who works that seat hard. But she’s also a strong performer with her recent elevation to Cabinet.

Will play a prominent role for Labor in Opposition.

I see this seat as part of Labor’s future strategy to offset loses to the Greens along the Riverside such as Cooper, McConnel fast growth in this areas is bringing more CALD residents.

How has this become one of the safest Labor seats in the state? Labor seat, I can see, but Jordan is very different demographically to other electorates in Greater Brisbane on similar margins.

There’s a strong Labor vote in Camira and Springfield, and a lot of new estates and subdivisions (young families) that are outnumbering One Nation/LNP voting acreage properties in Greenbank and Flagstone.

Labor seems to do really well in the western half of Jordan, while in the eastern half there is a relatively high One Nation vote. If you look at the booth results from 2017 you’ll see that One Nation marginally won all of the eastern booths (often courtesy of LNP preferences) and Labor comfortably won all of the western booths.

Springfield has a lot of new estates so this could be a key area for the LNP if they win booths in places like Springfield or if they win this seat.

I expect Labor to hold this seat though.

@Nether Portal have a look at the results from 2020 – the One Nation vote dropped significantly. Have a look on google earth at Greenbank and Flagstone, there are significant housing developments being built there, which brings in a lot of young families and people of CALD backgrounds. So the One Nation Vote will keep dropping at each election. In 2017, when the area was mostly acreages, the eastern side of the electorate was perfect One Nation voting territory. But not anymore.

The Covella estate in Greenbank didn’t exist at the time of the last election, and the ones in Flagstone have expanded since then. However, the census data for housing estates that did have significant population in 2021 seem to suggest that these housing estates (in the eastern part of Jordan and in neighbouring Logan) are not attracting many CALD residents. Perhaps that trend is gradually changing, as evidenced by Spring Mountain being much more CALD than Springfield Lakes.

Another interesting fact about the eastern part of this electorate is that many of the acreages in New Beith are themselves new housing estates! That is, new land was released, and acreages were built.

Looking at some of the SA1s of the newest of these, it looks like the typical household is a family with parents in their 30s and children under 10, relatively well-educated, very white, and majority irreligious.

Returning to my original question, I’ll refine it by asking why Greater Springfield specifically voted so overwhelmingly – 68% – for Labor in 2020. I find it hard to imagine a new suburban area voting that strongly for Labor in NSW.

@ AA, Nicholas
Agree with you analysis. I pointed out previously that Labor needs to ensure that hold Blair in 2025 if they did then it is more likely that it will slip out of the LNP’s reach going forward to a changing demographic which means Blair will be less of a white working class seat going forward and may loose the Somerset Region.

Re Greater Springfield, i think the LNP brand just appeals less to better educated middle class people than the Liberal brand in NSW. For example the Centenary Suburbs are affluent, desirable, ethnically diverse with McMansions i would compare it to Tangney parts of the Hills District or Manningham all of which are usually solid Liberal but in QLD it is quite marginal.

Interesting. I’m aware the area has got new estates but still.

Do you think Jordan could eventually become a seat like Riverstone where there are heaps of new housing estates in suburbs which are key areas for both major parties?

@Nicholas it is still a working-class area so the traditional base is Labor around Jordan. But in saying that the eastern side of Blacktown City Council is a top-priority target area for both major parties, it has been since 2011.

Still no LNP candidate here? Any predictions for the swing here?

If the LNP (or One Nation) were smart, they could run a strong campaign in Flagstone and Greenbank’s new estates, talking about the appalling lack of infrastructure (terrible roads, no rail, bus service doesn’t run on Sundays). I expect a swing to the LNP of around 5-15%, but it could be more if they ran a decent campaign.

@AA this won’t fall but it could swing a lot (like Inala).

A A, the problem with the LNP campaigning on the lack of infrastructure, particularly public transport, is they would be expected to actually deliver on it in government, and it is not something the LNP has a good track record in. Campbell Newman stopped any further investment into busways and stalled Cross River Rail for his entire term by trying to change the nature of the project. The delay to CRR had a direct impact on being able to implement railway extensions to places like Flagstone, because without a second river crossing there wasn’t enough track capacity available to run more services into the CBD.

I don’t think public transport investment is a huge part of Crisafulli’s plans going forward, either. He may put some money into highways but I’ve heard little else from him on that front. The only public transport related announcement I’ve heard from him is his virtue signalling to monarchists over renaming Cross River Rail as the Elizabeth line, which is silly because it isn’t a standalone line anyway, but extra track that multiple lines will use. I’ve certainly not heard anything from him about prioritising the railway line to Flagstone, or extra investment in bus services.

If the LNP were a forward thinking party they’d be trying to change their reputation on infrastructure investment, perhaps using Gladys Berejiklian’s government in NSW as a sort of blueprint. They could concentrate on winning the outer suburbs by offering upgraded transport services there, which would offer them some ammunition to claim the Labor Party is only interested in the city and inner suburbs. But I don’t expect to see that anytime soon. They’ll just continue the poor urban planning Labor has also engaged in, of creating vast estates on the edges of cities and having them make do with substandard infrastructure for decades on end.

@Wilson absolutely I agree with that. I’m still annoyed at the LNP every time I see those half-baked Eastern and Northern Busways that they cut funding for. Without Newman, we would’ve had full busways out to Bracken Ridge and Capalaba!!! Same with Cross River Rail, he was just playing politics with that BaT tunnel. It’s obvious that they won’t invest more into public transport this time around, and the situation for areas like Flagstone won’t change.

I’m just saying that people in those areas might be frustrated with a lack of public transport, and translate that into a frustration with the government. So they’ll vote LNP in protest (change factor).

I was also saying that it’s a missed opportunity for the LNP or One Nation to actually run a campaign on these issues.

I was also saying that it’s a missed opportunity for Labor, the LNP or One Nation to actually run a campaign on these issues.

A A, well they might vote LNP in protest, if they remain trapped in a two-party mindset. It always bemuses me when people don’t like the performance of the governing major party on an issue, but respond by voting for the opposition major party, whose position is either the same or worse. This was most obvious in 2012 when many people were annoyed at Anna Bligh privatising public assets, but they voted for the LNP who are even more enthusiastic about privatising public assets, and then seemed shocked when Campbell Newman wanted to continue the privatisation spree. It’d be similarly perplexing if anyone voted for Labor in the 2022 federal election because they didnt like how high immigration or welfare spending had been under the Liberals.

If voters are frustrated with the government over an issue, they ought to find out what the opposition will do differently. If the answer is not much, or the opposite of what the voters want, you’d think they’d be better off giving their first preference to a third party or independent candidate who is offering the change they want to see. Even if those candidates don’t get elected, it makes the major parties sit up and pay attention when they lose vote share.

@Wilson most people don’t think that way, because most people don’t do research into party policies. Also, there’s no party that is specifically offering better public transport for Flagstone and Greenbank areas.

A A, perhaps not specifically, but there are parties and independents that campaign for more public transport spending, which has a greater chance of getting lines built to places like Flagstone.

There are no independents running in Jordan. One Nation and The Greens have no transport policies yet.

The Greens are usually focused on elaborate public transport plans for the inner-city, which would probably take away funding for projects like the Salisbury to Beaudesert rail line. They also campaign strongly against densification in the inner-city, which encourages car-dependent urban sprawl like in Flagstone, Greenbank and Park Ridge.

Raue I believe you made an error in the history part

What’s the error?

 Bundamba and Inala were created in 1992 and were held by Labor continuously until at least 2017, even staying with Labor when they were badly defeated in 2017.

Given locker Ipswich and Ipswich West are all at quota it makes no sense to be transferring the 57% excess across Jordan bundamba Logan and scenic rim to them and Condamine can cover the deficits in Southern Downs then pour its and both Toowoomba excess into nanango.so what do with all that excess?my plan move parts of Logan and ipswich from scenic rimto and bundamba in Logan and Jordan respectivlpely. Bundumba along Oxley Creek and somehow in scenic rim. Then Jordan can move into the southern parts of Jordan making it a east west district.which can likely retreat to the Logan River. Then the parts north of the river combine with the southern parts of waterford woodrifpdge and the bits of Logan in algester with Woodbridge and waterford taking in the Logan parts of springwood. The new district would be called regents park. Springwood would also need to be renamed I’m think rochedale and lose parts of redlands to help out those other 3 districts to the tune of about another 10%.. Bulimba can top up what’s worth and Blyton remuneration unchanged. South Brisbane then tops up freenslopes which gives 3% to mansfield which gets another 50% from toohey which now being 62% under quota is abolished. Sending 12% to stretton to fix it up 14% to miller which sense 6% to mount ommaney and then fixes up algester with inal being left alone. There may still be a small number of voters left but this can be distributed to avoid a river crossing and that’s everything south of the Brisbane River done

I may rename Mansfield to wishart or mount gravatt/gravatt as well given the greater then 50% change