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This was formally the safest seat conservative seat in the state, what happened? Why is it only around 8% as “Reasonably safe”? Is it because the strong performance from Labor in neighbouring Marybourough has had an effect here?
On a uniform swing, If Labor was going for a landslide of 61-39 statewide, this would be very close, the fact that this is less safe than Bonney says something, uninspiring MP?
@ Daniel T This seat had me confused on election night. This sort of margin is what you would expect to see if it were an LNP v ONP race, and I waited for the 2CP to be confirmed, but it just never was.
I imagine the COVID response had something to do with it. Gympie has also in recent decades found itself increasingly tied to SEQ, and whilst that hasn’t necessarily been reflected politically yet, I’m sure it’s a factor in some aspects.
All that aside though, if the LNP wins a slim majority or at very least largely recovers its position statewide, I expect this seat to swing maybe ~7% back in their favor.
Quite a low primary vote for the LNP here last time of 42.4% – however I suspect the vote was lower than normal, due to the COVID pandemic impacting lower socio-economic electorates with an elderly population (similar to the results in Maryborough and Hervey Bay).
I expect an above average swing to the LNP, directly from Labor to LNP this time in the greater Fraser Coast area.