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It was reported in the Australia the Greens are reportedly confident of adding Greenslopes to their existing haul of Maiwar and South Brisbane, while McConnel and Cooper were more listed as ‘promising’. I would be very surprised the Greens gained this seat, and still think there best chances are McConnel and Cooper. Especially McConnel if Grace Grace doesn’t recontest where there has been some speculation in the media.
The primary votes between Labor and the Greens are still too much apart to make up in one election. I will acknowledge the Greens gaining federal seat of Griffith will help with resources. And there success at a federal level may have a splash on effect in this seat as well.
Agree PN
This is more of a suburban seat. I feel McConnel is more likely given more apartments, a younger demographic and generally more of LIB/Green area especially around Teneriffe etc
I disagree with Political Nightwatchman, because the primary votes of the last state election mean very little when the underlying political reality has changed. The Greens winning Griffith was a game changer for this seat, but also, Labor are not doing well in the polls, which makes this seat the most vulnerable it’s been since the Labor resurgence in 2015. It’d still require a strong Greens campaign to win here, but they have to be regarded as a realistic chance, especially if they manage to win Coorparoo ward in the preceding council elections.
Interesting bit of trivia: If the Greens manage to win Greenslopes this year it will be only the second seat in any state or federal parliament in the country to have been won by both the Nationals and the Greens at some point (after Ballina of course.) If they miss out that spot could go to Richmond (federal) instead in 2025.
You could argue Maiwar by way of Toowong already achieved this as well but it’s been reconfigured and renamed several times in between the two.
Greenslopes could be close. I suspect Labor’s vote to drop by close to 10% but almost all of it will go to the Greens. I can see a scenario whereby the Greens and LNP are almost on the same primary vote (each polling around 33%) and Labor coming third with 30/31%. If that eventuates the Greens win with a strong TCP.
Where the three top candidates finish after the distribution of preferences will be critical – either ALP retain or Greens gain.