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I’ll admit I’m not as familiar with QLD state politics but with the YouGov poll has the LNP 51/49 there way with polling consistently improving for the LNP which would suggest Labor is in trouble here. However, its still about a year so it will be interesting to see if this trend continues or if Labor can turn it back in their favour.
@ Bob I think you may have this electorate confused with Labor-held Gaven?
Currumbin is held by the LNP on a margin of 0.5%. I’m sure Labor will be looking to seats such as this one to offset any potential (and in my opinion, likely) losses in regional Queensland, but in the event the LNP wins government, this seat will remain comfortably under their control.
@Laine
My apologies, I mean the entire state, I wrote on here as I couldn’t find a thread to write on that referred to QLD as a whole. I think state Labor wide is in trouble is likely to be defeated in 2024 due to the current polling. I agree that this seat either way who wins office will stay with the LNP.
@Bob @Laine agreed. The LNP is ahead in the polls, improving in the polls and tipped to win by Sportsbet, Tab and Ladbrokes. It’s been a while since a poll has been released though. Hopefully they start doing polls every two weeks, then in 2024 weekly. Same goes for the NT and the ACT; I hope we get some regular polls there too. Should the LNP win the election, their win will probably come from regional Queensland (e.g seats like Bundaberg, Cairns, Hervey Bay, Mackay, Rockhampton, Townsville, etc). I’m expecting a big swing in Cook and Gladstone too.
Portal… qld is a unique place… and there is a huge amount of cross voting. All things being equal a alp govt is more likely
Mick, I see Queensland as the inverse of NSW. Just like the Coalition being fairly popular but also having been in office for 10+ consecutive years at the time of the last election, Queensland Labor has the same ‘it’s time’ factor working against them. Thus, Labor is almost certain to lose seats and the best they can hope for is to be returned in minority.
I would tend to agree at this stage via the polling and election cycle that the LNP retain is the most likely outcome. Gold Coast itself has been generally a let down in terms of seats for Labor in comparison to the golden years of the previous Beattie governments. It was reported recently that LNP MP for Currumbin Laura Gerber has been promoted to shadow cabinet. Gerber is seen as a ‘rising star’ in the LNP ranks it was reported.
Currumbin or Coomera is Labor’s best shot at another Gold Coast seat. But yes as Nightwatchman mentioned, the LNP have invested a lot of energy in building Gerber’s profile to sandbag this division and it might just work.
Regarding Coomera, it is has seen a lot of population increase and is terribly over quota. This drastic change in population does make it a bit of enigma worth investing campaign energy into for both parties. The issue for Labor though in Coomera is that booth results in the Voice referendum were also remarkably disappointing for Labor in Coomera.
Also Fadden by-election results also would have fell below their expectations. Low turn-out can be partly to blame but cannot fully dismiss their low votes.
I think Labor in looking at the division of Theodore might see the anomalously close margin as an opportunity. I would caution thought that Theodore also had similarly poor results for Labor in the Fadden by-election and the referendum. I would also say that its demographics don’t seem particularly favourable either. Very high proportion of mortgage holders. A combination of acreage dwellings and affluent canal properties.
I used to live In Currumbin for 12 years. The reason Labor got close in 2020 besides the Covid response boost was that Jann Stuckey fell out with The LNP and her husband ran as a spoiler and gave Labor his preferences. The LNP will hold this seat very easily in 24.
I thought that the LNP would score a swing to them in 2020. It’s probably because I watched too much media reporting of how the hard border during Covid made life difficult for those wanting to cross it for work or to see family and that it would also destroy tourism jobs. I actually believed that Currumbin residents were against the hard border and would punish Labor.
The issues around former MP, Jann Stuckey causing trouble has now been resolved and I think Gerber has built herself a good reputation locally. She’ll be the beneficiary of a good swing this time after a couple of close calls.
She’ll be a Minister by the end of the year.
This, Coomera, Everton and maybe Chatsworth are Must wins for Labor in future state elections to win a majority (2028-onwards) if Labor cannot recover the half a dozen seats or more in the regions in future elections.
The seats I mentioned are held by the LNP, you also have to factor the Greens will have a few current Labor held seats in future so for Labor to win a majority without sweeping Townsville, Cairns, and a few other seats like Hervey Bay, Bundaberg, Keppel, etc. They would need to win seats like the ones I mentioned that are held by the LNP for majority.
Perhaps I’d also add Theodore and Burleigh, but at that stage Labor would have a majority of Gold Coast seats which would be symbolic considering its history.
What other seats would you add as must Labor wins for majority in future elections? (That they didn’t win in 2020)
Daniel I would add Clayfield, but I believe the demographics there appear to be favouring the Greens rather than Labor.
@Daniel T I reckon that Coomera, Everton, Chatsworth, Theodore, Burleigh, Ninderry, Oodgeroo and Glass House would be LNP seats that Labor would need to win if the LNP has a landslide victory in the regions.
@ Daniel T, Yoh An and AA
I honestly, think it will be very hard for Labor to win a majority without winning the majority of the seats in Townsville, Cairns etc. We should look at 1998 and 2015 election when Labor won most of the Regional seats they hold now (in 1998 they did not hold Mulgrave, Thuringowa and Maryborough and they fell 1 seat short. Assuming they perform better in future in Everton, Aspley Chatsworth, The other seats i see are Coomera and Theodore. I feel Cleveland/Oodeergeo probably will not improve for Labor longer term. Even by Brisbane standards it is very Anglo , fewer renters no unionized workers. I feel waterfront parts of the Gold Coast such as Southport, Burleigh and Currumbin may trend conservative as SEQ continues to grow and beachside real estate becomes scarce, so i do think Glasshouse is another possibility as well. The best hope for Labor is population growth in South West Greater Brisbane will create new seats in the Ripley Valley, Greater Flagstone etc.
Yes I think Bundamba and Logan will be split in the future to create more seats. So too will Morayfield.
historically qld and vic have
Had a bias in favour of electing alp governments. But there does not seem to
Be alp landslides in qld. The lnp seemed ready to stuff up from the time of the GOSS government which was really an electoral earthquake. ” can do Campbell ” was the last failed attempt. It is like a man who comes into his inheritance only to find it is counterfeit money.
@Nimalan I think in the future Labor would be able to win a majority without a majority in Townsville by winning a majority in Brisbane and having more ground on the Gold Coast than they did between 2015 and now. As for Cairns, I think Barron River will be a safe LNP seat and Cairns will be a bellwether seat.
*Oh shit, I just realised you said you also see them not winning a majority in Townsville. I thought you said they needed Townsville. My bad.
@Daniel T I would add Clayfield. But in saying that I don’t think Labor will ever win every single seat in Brisbane especially since they’ve never come that close to cracking Moggill.
@ Nether Portal
I honestly think that it will be hard for the Labor to make up more ground with the exception of Coomera, Theodore to offset regional losses. SEQ is forecasted to have a population greater than Scotland in the next decade and a half so this will drive up property values along the waterfront. Despite a long coast line. SEQ only has limited surf beaches due to the Barrier reef (pretty much only Gold Coast, Sunshine coast and the islands. Superannuation has caused more inequality so wealthier retirees etc will settle in places like Currumbin, Bureligh etc and i believe it will trend more conservative with time. In Clayfield you have wealthy property investors who vote LNP and increasingly young renters who vote Green so Labor just gets squeezed out.