Welcome to the Tally Room’s guide to the 2024 Queensland state election. This guide includes comprehensive coverage of each seat’s history, geography, political situation and results of the 2020 election, as well as maps and tables showing those results.
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Legislative Assembly seat profiles
Seat profiles have been produced for all 93 Legislative Assembly electoral districts. You can use the following navigation to click through to each seat’s profile.
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I just got the polling from the 9 News video clip. It has a 2PP breakdown by age group and region. Check Kos Samaras or 9 News Queensland on Twitter.
How much worse can it get? I could see it getting to 59-41 but I doubt the LNP crack 60%
Even a good election campaign from Labor and a few screw ups from the LNP may narrow it by 3% at most. and even that will still be around 54-46/53-47 which still would be enough for an LNP majority even if it is a smaller one.
@Votante, I hope they release the full report because I want the primary vote cross-tabs, not the TPP cross-tabs. Also would be good to get an indication of where the Green and ONP primary votes are at.
Only half of Redbridge’s data is from May, the other half is from February. Therefore I believe the poll should only be taken with 50% credibility at most. Outdated data is not useful for the present time.
Miles’ path to hanging on:
* Labor loses votes and seats in Brisbane, but to Greens, the dial barely shifts on 2PP. It depends on the Greens having enough prominence and volunteers in seats like Aspley and Mansfield for the anti ALP vote not to go blue.
* Local MPs are able to sandbag enough of the seats outside SEQ despite a disastrous overall swing.
* LNP don’t hang on to all their seats. For example: Stoker gets rejected in Oodgeroo; KAP grab a seat like Burdekin or Whitsunday picking up the collapsing ALP vote and a preference snowball; Greens actually make inroads to Clayfield, Moggill, Glass House. Maybe Labor finally breaks through in another Gold Coast seat on a coalition of suburban battlers and young renters despite losing the COVID votes.
Having said all that it seems like Miles is doing a bunch of policies that seem purpose built to attack the LNP on for repealing them or letting them lapse (e.g. 50 cent bus fares). Of course that also looks like an actual 4th term agenda – which isn’t something you see from a government just trying to save the furniture.
@votatne link
miles is done he couldnt rig the election
@votante 50c fares does seem like damage control, although transport will be at least 5/6x cheaper
@caleb i think capping it at $2.50 is more sensible. but this govt is desperate
@John (uppercase username) define “serious inroads”. The Greens will finish second in Moggill and probably Clayfield too. But Glass House is a bit of a stretch since the Greens have only ever got 17.6% of the primary vote there, which is high but they still finished third and even then there were only three candidates (LNP, Labor, Greens). That was back in 2009. Nevertheless it’s very possible that in the future the Greens will overtake Labor in Burleigh and Glass House.
The interesting thing is though that federal Queensland Labor is on the verge of becoming a non-major party in a state in terms of seat totals for the first time in history. If the LNP wins Blair in 2025 which is very possible then Labor is reduced to just four seats. If the Greens win Moreton then Labor goes down to just three seats which would give the Greens four seats to the LNP’s 22 (Bob Katter would obviously win Kennedy without much difficulty), which would make the Greens the second-largest party in Queensland on the federal level. So there’s a very real chance that federal Labor could become a minor federal party in Queensland.
@NP i reckon the lnp will give the greens a run in Ryan and Brisbane but i think MCM is gonna be around for a while in griffith unless labor preference liberals.
@John I think it’s much more likely for Labor to win Brisbane than the LNP. But I still think the Greens will retain both seats as Greens incumbents basically never lose with preferential voting because they concentrate their vote well and their voters stay lefties instead of moving to the right or even the centre.
Nevertheless though I think Ryan and probably Brisbane too will be seats that the LNP will finish first in with the Greens second but winning on Labor preferences.
@np given how labor just stood up to the greens publicly preferencing would just make them hypocrites
Labor will always put The Greens above the LNP. It’s just how things work
@AA the only seats where that currently matters are in QLD still i think the libs can win both ryan and brisbane but cant win griffith without labor preferences
Found the report @Votante
https://redbridgegroup.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/RedBridge-Report-Qld-State-political-analysis.pdf
@SEQ Observer, cheers. It looks like a bloodbath in the outer suburbs and provincial areas. Labor’s 2PP in rural areas isn’t as bad as I’d thought. It shows a strong Greens vote interestingly and it could hint a strong KAP or ONP presence that will split votes and send some preferences to Labor.
On the Redbridge poll. Where do the Gold and Sunshine Coasts sit in the definitions? Provincial or outer metropolitan?
The rural areas probably had a tiny number of respondents. No way Labor would ever get 45% TPP in rural areas and the Greens get 11% in rural areas; that literally never happens.
@Nether Portal – what I meant by inroads is that the Greens don’t just pick up former ALP voters but actually have enough local presence to flip LNP voters. People who have always voted LNP but are quite impressed with Bates and Watson Brown as their local MPs. Berkman seems to have won a genuine shift from right to left in his area.
Not sure what would do it in Glass House – trying to find an LNP held seat that might not swing the same way as the rest of the state. I doubt Greens will target it, or any of the Gold and Sunshine coast seats where they could overtake Labor.
Again, I think if Labor hangs on it will be through a mix of sandbagging and frustrated voters in Brisbane going Green instead of Blue.
There is a small chance there will be more Green than Labor federal politicians from Queensland (or even state if QLD Greens have a dream run and QLD Labor a 2012 wipeout). Perhaps QLD will end up like Alberta and Saskatchewan in Canada – still a 2 party system, but not the same 2 parties as other states. In Canada of course the NDPs in those states ended up much less progressive than the federal party.
Whatever the case, federally Chalmers is safe and he will be able to keep the Labor brand strong.
Of course Chalmers could become the Ralph Goodale of Australia – the last red MP in a state where they’re functionally dead. But the senate will keep Labor in the game
@John
Berkman is a good example of a local MP winning over LNP and ALP voters to the Greens. But as a constituent, Bates is the complete opposite. No presence in the community and quite out of touch. I expect a very close race at the next election.
Official predictions for seats Labor holds (as of June):
Labor seats:
* Ultra-marginal: Ipswich
* Marginal: Gladstone, Miller, Toohey, Sandgate
* Fairly safe: Algester, Inala, Jordan, Morayfield, Waterford
* Safe: Bundamba, Woodridge
I predict Labor will lose some safe seats in Brisbane, such as Greenslopes, Lytton, Nudgee and Stretton. They will only hold two coastal seats: Gladstone and Sandgate, both of which are marginal seats. Bundamba, Gladstone and Ipswich will also be the only Labor seats outside Brisbane.
Tonight I will make a map.
Steven Miles will also lose his own seat of Murrumba to the LNP.
(Responding to your comment on Mount Ommaney) NP, McGowan got 55% in 2017.
I think the high Greens vote will save Labor from dropping under 10 seats. I think Labor will get 15-20 seats.
Campbell Newman helped the LNP to win seats they should never win. His TPP in 2012 was around 63%, so hold up mate, It is not 2012 just YET.
https://ibb.co/RgFSwG0
That is my 20 seat Labor scenario, some are 50/50 calls. I didn’t show regional QLD but I have Thuringowa being an upset Katter gain.
Labor only win Gladstone outside SEQLD.
Lytton, Macalister, Ferny Grove and Ipswich were 50/50 calls but I had them narrowly going to Labor.
20 seats for Labor might seem generous but even Tony Barry from RedBridge (former Liberal advisor) thinks the worst Labor can do is lose 25-30 seats. (Kos Samaras is in agreement)
But we will see.
@Nether Portal Labor still has Incumbent advantage, cause in 2020 the difference between the last opinion poll and the state election was Labor (+2.6), LNP (-0.1), GRN (-1.5), ON (-2.9) & Other (+1.9).
the 9 most Marginal Labor seats are going to LNP no doubt. Cooper, McConnel & maybe Greenslopes would go to the Greens. Rockhampton could go to Margaret Strelow. I put the seats of Cairns, Cook, Ferny Grove, Mansfield, Oodgeroo, Redcliffe & Stafford as Tossups cause the LNP candidates there have varying degrees of baggage. as for Murrumba if Miles doesn’t lose his seat this election he’d probably resign before the next election.
as for every other seat that i didn’t list off are Labor Retain.
@Daniel T thanks for the correction on WA. I was mixed up with Colin Barnett’s landslide for the Coalition in 2013 where he won 57% of the TPP vote (against Mark McGowan’s Labor Party which went on to win the next two elections in historic landslides).
However, I honestly doubt Labor will get to 20 seats. 15 is plausible, my prediction has for a while been 12 however. I don’t see the KAP gaining any seats.
I have Lytton as an LNP gain due to the recent results in Wynnum Manly on the council level and the general political landscape there at the moment. I’ve got Nudgee as a tossup and Sandgate as a marginal Labor seat.
@Caleb Labor would be extremely lucky to hold on to Cairns, Cook, Mansfield and Redcliffe. Also, Oodgeroo is an LNP seat. I’m writing off the possibility of Labor gaining any seats and I doubt they’ll even get a swing to them in any seat. Miles is performing worse than Palaszczuk and Bligh in terms of personal approval and Queensland Labor is performing as bad as they were in the lead-up to the 2012 state election but nevertheless I still expect them to hold on to a couple of seats they lost in 2012 like Waterford whilst losing Mackay and Rockhampton for the first time ever while having a narrow hold on Gladstone.
I have Murrumba as a narrow LNP gain too. Interestingly it largely overlaps with the federal LNP-held marginal seat of Dickson, which is Peter Dutton’s seat.
Reckon Labor will hold Maryborough..
When voters look more at the lnp and see what they stand for….they will expect
More from a likely government
I’d say in regional QLD, Labor can hold Gladstone and has a path to holding Maryborough. An independent might pick up Rockhampton. Mirani is a possible LNP gain.
@Nether Portal: Ipswich is generally regarded as part of Greater Brisbane, therefore I consider Bundamba and Ipswich to be Brisbane seats. Steven Miles’ personal vote as Premier should protect him from losing his own seat of Murrumba. What’s more, Murrumba has been won by Labor at every state election since 1977, with the exception of 2012. Since the 2024 state election won’t be a 2012 repeat and the seat was held by the Premier, Steven Miles’ should retain his seat of Murrumba, albeit likely narrowly. However, if Steven Miles resigns as the Member of Murrumba after being defeated as Premier, LNP should be able to pick up the seat at the ensuing by-election.
@MQ @Votante @Joseph I really don’t see them retaining Maryborough. It might be the Queensland version of the Bathurst moment in NSW in 2011: a regional Labor seat being lost to the Coalition with Labor never being able to get it again. But of course it won’t have an 80% TPP like Bathurst does.
NP, Wishful thinking. You do realize Gerard Martin (The last ALP member for Bathurst) retired and did not recontest in 2011. Bruce Saunders on the other hand is running again here.
This is leaning towards the LNP and likely will be marginal post election (LNP margin of 2-6%) is a more reasonable prediction. You are basically suggesting the margin here is inflated (there is no evidence that it is) then you basically say Leon Bignell and Peter Watson were flukes.
The truth is, the members I mentioned are popular and are more likely to resist the statewide swing. The swing here will be around statewide average. but it will not be one of the biggest swings.
I can see Labor winning this back in 2028 if they narrowly lose in 2024. and it is wishful thinking to automatically assume the LNP will easily win again in 2028. A week is a long time in politics mate, look at the UK, people said Labour was no chance of winning the next election after 2019, but my gosh, fortunes have changed.
People also said Labor was not going to lose it’s majority in 2010 federally (before the ETS failed and the leadership coups) and people said Newman would be a 3-term premier. The beauty with politics is you never know what will happen.
@Nether Portal Murrumba is mostly in Petrie (east of the M1) and Longman (west of the M1), There’s a tiny bit of it in Dickson.
@Caleb I think the swings will be very uneven, so areas like Cook may hold the line a lot better than seats like Pumicestone, Caloundra and Mansfield. Any Labor seats under 10 percent are in the firing line but I think that there are some seats well above that are interesting, such as Stafford. The seats of Toohey, Stretton and Algester are unlikely to shift much based on the Council results. Historically Sandgate is a difficult seat to pick up for the LNP despite the demographics – much like Mount Ommaney. I still think that maybe Gladstone and Cook are likely to be the only regional seats the ALP will hold – if they lose their third safest seat then the election will be a bloodbath. The one bright spot for them is the potential gain of South Brisbane from The Greens IF the LNP finish third. The problem is the same as the ALP in Maiwar. Two or three elections go by with it being Greens vs LNP and people forget the ALP is even an option. In the long term the ALP is losing the soy latte seats to The Greens and the tradie seats to the LNP.
Which brings us to McConnel. IF (and that’s a big IF) the LNP drop to third place behind The Greens and ALP, I think you’ll see a significant proportion of LNP voters preferencing The Greens even with the LNP HTV preferencing the ALP. So if The Greens finish first in the primary count they may pick up enough of a depleted LNP vote to roll Grace Grace. Given that this is one of the seats The Greens have a candidate for and the LNP don’t, the longer the LNP delay their campaign the better it is for The Greens.
One of the issues has been candidate preselections and the ALP is well behind despite having fewer seats to fill. The problem is basic economics 101 – people go where they think they have a chance of winning. According to generally accepted gossip 🙂 the problem Labor has is the number of potential candidates who are saying “No”.
The other problem Labor will have is the likely decimation of their Ministerial ranks after the election. My best guess is a Fentiman/Dick opposition with Leanne Linard and Mark Ryan bumped up a bit assuming there’s no immediate by-elections, such as Bulimba. The long-term problem for Labor is picking absolute numpties in safe seats based on who they’re related to or which union boss supports them and then having to find something for them to do.
Speaking of which, Bulimba is no certainty for the ALP to hold. And that’s solely based on the crime rates – the area is basically ground zero for stolen cars and having your car taken at 3 am or your house robbed does influence your vote. Probably not the best seat to hold the role of Minister for Youth Justice. And while it previously contained lower priced housing there’s not a single suburb in the Bulimba electorate now with a median house price under a million dollars.
To reiterate – redistributions shift seats in the short term, demographics shift seats in the long term.
@Mark Yore thanks for the correction. I must’ve got mixed up because Murrumba Downs itself is in Dickson.
Other points:
1. I agree that some areas will swing more than others. For example I expect seats like Bundaberg and Hervey Bay to become safe LNP seats in 2024 and I would also pick Barron River, Keppel, Mundingburra and Townsville plus likely Thuringowa to either become safe LNP seats or come close to being considered safe. But then seats like Greenslopes will swing less but still swing (I predict that the LNP will narrowly get Greenslopes this time and Labor might get it next time).
2. I’m predicting that Gladstone will be marginal. Working-class industrial people are sick and tired of Labor which is why you can see industrial working-class regional cities like Bathurst, Grafton and Lismore in NSW ditching Labor for the Nationals (to be fair, agricultural areas have always voted Nationals, see the NSW Mid North Coast and the NSW Northern Tablelands for example where they quite literally never elect Labor MPs). Page isn’t even a bellwether anymore and Calare has been a Nationals heartland for ages though it includes places that don’t have the same history as Bathurst such as Orange and Mudgee which are less industrial.
3. I agree that the LNP won’t win Cooper or McConnel. The Greens will win those.
4. I predict Bulimba to be an LNP vs Greens seat, with the LNP winning.
My maps for Queensland predictions as of June 2024 are coming soon.
@Daniel T:
1. I do understand that Gerard Martin retiring inflated the swing to the Nationals in Bathurst in 2011 but I mean even if he stayed he still would’ve lost badly. The swing was record-breaking with some booths swinging 40% to the Nationals. That’s not something one candidate could reverse. If Martin had stayed Paul Toole still would’ve won with 70% of the vote or perhaps even more.
2. Since Bruce Saunders is recontesting, I did say that the margin wouldn’t be close to 80%. I agree with a 3-6% LNP margin (my rough prediction would be 3-8% LNP margin, exact prediction maybe 55% LNP TPP).
3. The margin is kinda inflated by Saunders obviously being a popular local MP. Maryborough votes LNP federally and even though there’s a difference between federal and state politics, usually it’s not 55% federal LNP and 62% state Labor.
4. I do get that politics changes, and my predictions could very well change. But I’m looking at likely scenarios. NSW Labor couldn’t win in 2015 or 2019 because the NSW Coalition government was too popular and Labor only won a minority in 2023 despite the NSW Coalition being in power for 12 years because people still liked the government but they also liked the opposition (which they didn’t in 2015 or 2019). Similarly, the WA Coalition won’t win in 2025 because the WA Labor government is still too popular even after eight years. So if Crisafulli learns from Newman’s mistakes, he can win in 2028. But if he doesn’t, he still could win, but he still could lose.
5. I said (one of) the biggest swing would be in Keppel, not Maryborough (unless Saunders decides to retire, which he hasn’t and probably won’t given that it’s now June and the election’s in October).
Map showing the seat winners and who comes second: https://jmp.sh/k0ByOI0Q
Colours:
* LNP seats:
** Blue: LNP vs Labor
** Light blue: LNP vs Greens
* Labor seats:
** Red: Labor vs LNP
* Greens seats:
** Green: Greens vs Labor
** Lime green: Greens vs LNP
* Other seats:
** Maroon: KAP vs LNP (KAP seats)
** Teal: Noosa; Sandy Bolton (independent) vs Clare Stewart (LNP); (independent seat)
Note my accidental error for Mirani. I predict Mirani to be LNP vs One Nation with the LNP winning, but I accidentally put it as LNP vs Labor with the LNP winning. Just keep that in mind.
I have Labor winning 11 seats, down from 19 in my last prediction map (the partisan voting index one based on the Cook Partisan Voting Index (CPVI) in the US). What changed? I made the difficult decision to narrowly pick a few upset victories for the LNP in safe Labor seats:
* Bulimba (LNP vs Greens)
* Greenslopes
* Logan
* Miller
* Murrumba
* Stafford
* Stretton
* Toohey
Most of these were tough decisions and there’s a good chance I’ll be wrong with most of those upset victories. I haven’t lived in Queensland for a while but it is my home state by birth and I visit family there frequently.
One Nation preferences would help the LNP in Logan so I think Labor will finish first but the LNP will narrowly win on One Nation preferences which will be an upset victory because Logan is a Labor heartland seat.
@Nether Portal I don’t see the LNP winning in Miller or Greenslopes. Greens preferences will push Labor over the line there. They’re way too inner-city to go the LNP’s way, and voters in these seats aren’t buying their “tough on crime” stance.
Di Farmer’s personal vote in Bulimba will save her, even though it is a demographically LNP vs GRN seat.
Stretton is too strong of an ALP seat to fall to the LNP – it’s part of Labor’s heartland in south-west Brisbane. James Martin is a good MP with strong ties to the community.
Murrumba is a complete toss-up, the LNP haven’t announced a candidate yet.
Stafford is a toss-up too with a former BCC councillor running for the LNP, but I again think that Green preferences will save Labor here. The southern end of the electorate is somewhat Green-friendly and the centre of the electorate is very Labor-friendly.
Toohey is also not going the LNP’s way, because Peter Russo is well-known and has good connections with the Chinese community there. The only way anyone else would be competitive there would be with a Dai Le-style community candidate.
The LNP winning Logan is a possibility, but the area has experienced a lot of growth with young families moving into new developments. This helps Labor and reduces the One Nation vote, giving the LNP less of a chance of pulling through on preferences.
Big mistake. I haven’t lived in BRISBANE for over a year now. I live on the Gold Coast.
@AA:
1. Greenslopes and Miller will be close.
2. Di Farmer may have a personal vote in Bulimba but that may not be enough to save her.
3. The LNP won’t be targeting seats like Murrumba so they’ll be upsets. That’s why they don’t have a candidate yet: they’re better off focusing on seats like Townsville where they could get huge swings to them than seats like Murrumba that are safe and haven’t been competitive since 2012.
4. Logan would be a one-off win because it’s working-class, Labor heartland but crime is a massive issue in Logan. But Logan’s always been a shithole because crime’s always been a big problem there. Same goes for Inala but Labor will definitely hold that.
@Nether Portal, what you’re describing as Logan sounds a lot more like Logan Central and its periphery suburbs. Not to be confused with the state division of Logan. Yes the division is within the Logan LGA, and includes a couple of localities with the word Logan in them, but this division mostly covers Logan’s rural and ex-rural localities. It does not include Logan Central. Furthermore, it’s only been since 2008 that most of these localities were incorporated into Logan LGA. Prior to that they were in the Shire of Beaudesert. There are still many part of this division that would align closer to Beaudesert and Scenic Rim than Logan Central or Woodridge. The dwelling composition for example incorporates lots of acreage properties, large blocks and large dwellings, like its neighbour Scenic Rim, but unlike its neighbour Woodridge.
I would contest your point about this being “Labor heartland” and I think you might be underestimating the historical precedent that there is for an LNP win in Logan. In fact the division was held by the LNP between 2012 and 2015. In the Federal context, many of these localities, for example Jimboomba (within the division of Wright), generally perform very well for the LNP.
I also think you might be overestimating the crime that goes on this division. You are invoking the popular perception of Logan as s***hole, but this perception again can be mostly attributed to Logan Central and Woodridge. This division is fairly removed from these suburbs as I highlighted earlier.
Yes I agree completely with @SEQ Observer, Logan electorate consists of the semi-rural outer suburbs where crime is less of an issue. It incorporates a lot of acreages and large blocks – traditionally strong for One Nation – but is starting to experience urban sprawl and subdivisions with lots of young families moving in.
@SEQ Observer I live on the Gold Coast.
@Nether Portal that’s all well and good, but have you actually been to (or looked at) the Logan electorate. I’m sure a lot of people on the Gold Coast have the same degrading stereotypes as you.
The LNP led BCC say they’ll use negotiations as a political issue to support individual LNP candidates in the state election
@AA yes I’ve been there. I went to preschool in Ipswich which is not far from Logan. I have family in Ipswich and West Brisbane.
The Gold Coast isn’t perfect either, no place is. Many years ago when I was like 19, I was out with friends in Southport and one of them (a female) was threatened by another male (probably aged about 20 and was drunk), so one of my other friends (a male) had to step in. More recently, my friend recently had his car and boat stolen (he eventually got it back) and he lives in Robina.
Ok, but I still think you don’t get the difference between suburban Woodridge and the semi-rural Logan electorate. Two very different demographics. I have family and friends who have grown up and live in the Logan electorate. And I know people from the Woodridge electorate. Two very different places.
Also, I really don’t understand why you claim know about the Logan electorate because you went to preschool in Ipswich and you have family living in West Brisbane and Ipswich?
I really think you don’t understand the difference between the ethnically diverse and high crime rate areas of Woodridge and Logan Central (electorate of Woodridge) and the semi-rural blocks and outer suburbia that make up the electorate of Logan. Very different demographics, and you seem to be lumping them together as one.
@Nether Portal, I can tell you’re from the Gold Coast 😀
It is quite common for Gold Coasters (and Brisbanites) to perceive all of Logan quite inaccurately as a monolith, equipped with its typical negative perceptions which can maybe only be attributed to a couple of pockets. This is very easy to do when viewed only through the lens of several highway exits or train stations when en-route to Brisbane or the Gold Coast.
It instead is a disparate collection of historic towns and communities that were long overshadowed by Gold Coast and Brisbane and unable to stand on their own. Communities which are becoming increasingly stitched together by rapidly expanding urban sprawl. The emerging LGA is now roughly the size of Canberra in population and area.
I do want to reiterate that the boundaries for Logan do not encompass the town/city that the general public popularly considers as Logan. This division instead encompasses parts of the Logan River catchment. Including rural, semi-rural and ex-rural localities that have been recently incorporated into the LGA.
Not a great name by ECQ honestly because of this confusion that it generates within the general public, often being mis-attributed to the Logan City (in Woodridge). It made more sense when there was a few other divisions that followed this convention of being named after its respective River catchment area. This included its deprecated sister division Albert, largely encompassing the Albert catchment region. Coomera and Nerang were others following this.
As I’ve said on here before, the ECQ should rename Logan as Goss, which would stop people conflating it with Woodridge, name the seat after its most popular former member, and commemorate a deceased former Premier.
@Wilson that’s actually a great idea. The Logan name is just confusing