Bancroft – Queensland 2024

Possible upset LNP gain if they are going for a 50-55 seat majority. This seat is not just Deception Bay, it also contains my suburb of North Lakes (although I am moving to Melbourne this Tuesday)

North Lakes is a mortgage belt area, allot of young families, an area that Labor was bloodletting recently in federal elections due to their unpopular stances on Negative gearing. Allot of property development around here, a demographic that has recently shifted more to the LNP

This is also the area that witnessed the tragic murder of Emma Lovell just a couple of kilometres from where I still live. Locals around here are demanding more action and the LNP could capitalise on this during the campaign. Labor would absolutely be foolish and selfish to ignore this seat because this would be around 50-50 on federal figures, and on 2019 federal figures, an LNP strong win.

This was around 6-7% margin in 2017 state election, and barely swung at that election. I suspect there will be a huge correction and this seat will just fit the marginal category, but you cannot rule out an LNP gain if they play the issues right, and Labor continues to neglect this community.

While this may be home turf for Miles (Murrumba used to contain NL and DB) The youth crime issue will definitely flip this seat. LNP will likely gain this. If the youth crime issue was the main factor for Ipswich West. that swing would be enough to flip this seat as well.

And if you factor in the murder of Emma Lovell which will still be on the mind of voters in North Lakes, this seat is a prime target for the youth crime issue. If the LNP make this a youth crime election then they can win a whole bunch of seats like this, however if things don’t improve in the 4 years they are in power then these seats will return back to Labor.

This is in the federal seat of Petrie and this seat would be about 50-50 if you replicated 2022 federal to this.

I had Labor retaining Bancroft but I do think the Greater Moreton Bay region is ripe for change this time. Bancroft and Murrumba are yet to have LNP candidates endorsed, which seems odd. I suspect Labor will retain Kurwongbah and Morayfield. But Redcliffe, Murrumba, Bancroft and Pine Rivers are all in play.

@PRP we did discuss the very real possibility of Steven Miles losing his own seat of Murrumba. My predictions have it in doubt still because the margin is only 11% (safe but the LNP are projected to win in a landslide) but of course it is indeed the Premier’s seat.

If things look grim for Labor in the last few weeks, they might see the need to sandbag Murrumba – that will take resources away from somewhere else leading to further losses somewhere else.

My own electorate with a sitting ALP MLA. Chris Whiting has been MLA o\r Moreton Bay Regional Council (now City Council) Councillor since I moved to area from Redcliffe 20 years ago. HE has a strong local presence. He is well liked but whether he keeps the seat will depend upon the swing against the government. I expect the swing here to be less than the general swing.
Crime is an issue but Libs whilst being strong on crime when in opposition were just as bad as ALP when in government.
In 50 years, I have only voted for 1 ALP candidate and that was Chris Whiting last election. If he can get the vote of an old Grouper like me he shouldf not be written off.

AJ, Welcome back, it has been ages since we have seen you on here.

I agree this will be competitive, and one of the big unknowns is whether Miles can actually limit the swing in this part of SEQLD considering this is a neighbouring seat to his own.

But one of the most high profile youth crime incidents occurred in this seat and the LNP will hit hard here, especially in my former residence of North Lakes. If the swing is large enough in North Lakes alone, Deception Bay won’t be enough to save Labor.

Labor needs to remain competitive in North Lakes to have a shot of holding on. If early in the night the LNP are in the mid-late fifties on the TPP in North Lakes, then it’s over for them. I know this area well, Labor is not particularly liked federally here and on the state level they are starting to get their baseball bats out, but whether everyone is going first preference LNP is another question.

Tossup, possibly an LNP gain

Tonight I was hit with a telephone survey from a Polling organisation being conducted for an anonymous client. Sounded like LNP was client because they mentioned the name of LNP candidate.

ALP seems to be hitting petrol pricing reform measures fairly often.
Mark Ryan in adjoining seat of Morayfield is running a small business forum tomorrow. The photo that accompanies the advert purports to show a previous Small Business Network which appears have been very well attended with more than 60 attending.

My barber today told me that most of his customers think ALP will lose election and he is in a very strong ALP area just South of Morayfield and Bncroft.
I got my electricity bill today with a $1000 cost of living rebate from State Government on it resulting in a positive balance. This must have some impact on ALP vote.
50 cent train fares for those in outer suburbs are a big saving.
Burpengary Station reopens next Monday with lifts and wheel chair access. I have been on crutches for part of last year with a knee replacement and not having to climb the stairs will be a plus for State Government.
I am inclined to dissagree with my barber and think ALP will creep back in. If I was ALP I would be fifing photographs the Christafuli and Campbell Newman arm in arm a decade ago but of course some of us learnt our politics in close proximity to the good old days.

Andrew, although these positive benefits could also be spun as a ‘last ditch’ attempt by Labor to try and reconnect with voters which they could easily rebuff.

AJ, this seat or the state election?

As someone in Labor, I’m pretty sure we’re losing this election – however, I’ve been told that on the doors, voters in marginal Labor suburban seats in SEQ have actually been quite positive towards Labor. It’s just the media that paints the picture of a complete wipeout. Although it is important to note, voters in the regions are really turning against Labor.

Obviously, the signs are pointing to defeat in this election, however there looks to be a pathway for Labor back to victory in the next few election if they can hold their SEQ seats, and gain other marginals in SEQ (Glass House, Everton, Clayfield, Coomera, Burleigh, Theodore). There may even be a very slim chance that they could hold on at this election.

@A A I like your optimisim but unfortunately for the QLD ALP, given what’s happened in the NT over similar issues, I sense that the inner-city won’t be immune from a landslide either unless if Labor can miraculously do something amazing in the next 50 odd days or the LNP has a major scandal that plagues the entire party. Regions are finished, even Gladstone I reckon might be at risk given the swings in the NT in what was safe Labor seats like Nightcliff, Fannie Bay etc.

And I know that some people talk about how personal votes can play a role in keeping members elected. Again, the NT election spoke volumes of how wrong that could be. I reckon the likes of Miles, Grace Grace, Shannon Fentiman, Di Farmer, even Cameron Dick etc shouldn’t be cruising at the moment given that any of them have a chance of losing their seats whether they like it or not. Eva Lawler and Natasha Fyles both embarrassingly lost their seats to the CLP and Greens, even Michael Gunner might not have survived in Fannie Bay had he contested. I think no one in the ALP should take their incumbency for granted as there is genuine anger over the ALP in Queensland and the voters are ready with their baseball bats.

@AA Queensland will be worse than the NT because Albo won’t listen.

@Tommo9 from the very start I predicted massive swings in seats like Gladstone and Keppel, Gladstone I picked would be marginal and Keppel I picked would be quite safe. Everyone shut me down. Now I’m back predicting Gladstone will be more marginal than ever before.

I also think seats like Lytton and Sandgate are at risk, the former much more likely to fall than the latter though given the margin and the results in Wynnum Manly at the Brisbane City Council election earlier this year.

@Nether Portal you predicted a 27% primary swing against Labor in Keppel. I agree that Labor’s losing Keppel, but not to that extent. Gladstone will have a massive swing against Labor, and I’ve always believed that. But Labor will hang on.

Sandgate and Lytton are interesting, and could be wildcards on election night. However, the LNP don’t have a candidate in Lytton, and their candidate in Sandgate isn’t campaigning much.

Also, voters in Queensland can differentiate between Federal and State Labor. Just look at seats like Petrie, Longman, Capricornia, Bonner and Forde. Albo won’t really be a factor in how people vote at the state election. If anything, people in multicultural federal seats like Moreton, Oxley and Griffith will be turned off by Dutton.

@Tommo9 the LNP don’t have a candidate in Bulimba, which I find really odd. But any of those high profile MPs could easily be a surprise loss on election night, I agree. The Labor Left have been throwing all their volunteers and resources into campaigning for Fentiman – well before there was an LNP candidate – likely to sure up their preferred future leader’s safe seat.

Also, NT Labor lost a lot of votes to The Greens and independents for not being progressive enough, and backing the gas industry. However, in Queensland, the Labor government has had a lot of progressive policies and has been standing up to big coal companies through their coal royalties. Mostly because Steven Miles isn’t trying to move QLD Labor closer to the right, to compete with the LNP, like Eva Lawler did with NT Labor. Instead of racing with the LNP to be “tough on crime”, he’s running a progressive suite of policies focused on cost of living. So QLD Labor won’t see massive swings to The Greens.

Although I do disagree when you say that inner-city Brisbane won’t be immune to an LNP landslide. From my experience, people in the inner city (espeicially younger people) are happy with Miles’ policies, and there really isn’t a sense of change in the air. People in the inner-city also don’t by the LNP’s “tough on crime” approach, and know that the evidence says that locking up more kids won’t solve crime.

Lastly, the NT Election saw massive swings against Labor in the suburbs, and swings towards Labor in the regions. The Qld Election will be the opposite – massive swings against Labor in the regions and outer suburbs, and smaller swings against Labor as you get closer to the city.

”Redcliffe is a reasonably safe Labor seat and would likely only be in play if the LNP gained a big swing.”

Ben, I believe you mean Bancroft and that you accidentally copy and pasted the Redcliffe description here?

Daniel T
Survey was for Bancroft.

Sorry but I did not get name of Polling company, but they mentioned Carlson by name. I had not heard of him. Which does not say much for LNP local campaigning.

@Andrew jackson werent you the president

John
President of what?

@AJ, He is referring that you share the name with the 7th President of the United States Andrew Jackson.

But it seems irrelevant to the topic so I’ll just leave it at that.