Burdekin – Queensland 2024

With towns like Collinsville going from one of the most Labor booths in the country a couple of decades ago to a swing booth and even leaning conservative, this will never go Labor again.

The town of Collinsville and those like it are hugely dependent on the mining industry, I used to have a friend who is related to the former ALP candidate here, they are extremely pro-coal. And even Labor supporters up here support coal. But they cannot distance themselves from national Labor.

You only need to look at Collinsville booths federal and state level in the last several elections to see the trends I am talking about. Look at federal 2016 in Capricornia and compare it to federal 2019/2022 and state 2020.

Easy LNP hold with the margin around 12-13%

The end of coal is coming for these folks whether they like it or not. The earlier they start diversifying their industries, the better off they’ll be. Simply voting for whichever party tells them what they want to hear the most will guarantee that they will experience an awfully hard landing 10-15 years down the track.

I seem to remember reading not long ago that Collinsville was one of the most rapidly shrinking places in Australia, so perhaps the wolf has already been to their door.

@wilson if they end coal what do they plan on exporting? air? the only reason qld has a surplus is because of coal. notice how the two resources states are the only ones with a surplus? and the federal government for that fact. without coal they wont have any money for services and the state will go further into debt like the rest and it will be deficit after deficit after deficit.

Labor’s candidate is Anne Baker, a former Mayor of the Isaac Shire who is described by the party as ‘one of Queensland’s most respected local government leaders’.

https://www.townsvillebulletin.com.au/news/former-isaac-region-mayor-anne-baker-announced-as-alp-candidate-for-burdekin/news-story/ba46bdd7f8f93f27c3c5403377c1351c

@Cooper despite the high-profile candidate I think the LNP will still win this easily, with a big swing to them (matching the statewide trend).

Predictions:

Primaries:
LNP: 53.4% (+13.7%)
Labor: 17.3% (–14.4%)
KAP: 12.3% (–1.9%)
One Nation: 7.5% (+0.5%)
Greens: 2.5% (+0.5%)

TPP:
LNP: 70.9% (+13.8%)
Labor: 29.1% (–13.8%)

The swing is big but smaller than in neighbouring seats since Labor’s running a former Mayor who is apparently popular.

Nether, It isn’t blowing out to 70%. That is biased. The seat is already LNP held on a decent margin so I suspect it will be a 6-7% swing. so around the mid 60’s for the LNP on the TPP. It will be ”Very safe” but not THAT safe.

I predict LNP will still be under 50% primary. Katter will do a bit better. Labor tiny bit better, One Nation better, and Greens a bit worse.

64-36 TPP for LNP.

@Daniel T that actually makes a bit more sense but I did a big prediction in Keppel too.

I’ve been doing a few predictions lately and they may be a bit bold and pro-LNP but I have stated that they won’t be exact and some may be a fair bit off, but it gives an idea as for what the swing will look like.

So far I’ve done Burdekin, Cooper, Gladstone, Keppel, Maiwar, Maryborough, Mirani, South Brisbane and Thuringowa.

Interesting to imagine where this seat would be now if Labor did slightly better in 2015 or 2017. You could imagine all incumbents hanging on vs LNP in 2020 and then Labor wondering if they could still hang in there in a seat that by all accounts had completely drifted away from Labor politically (this being the state seat with Clermont in it after all). There may be a story about other North Queensland seats in there.

As it stands the area has moved right more rapidly in the last decade than anywhere else in the country as far as I can tell. With Labor having no incentive to even try here I agree with speculation this will end up well in the 60s 2PP for the LNP.

I can see KAP/ONP gaining ground or at least campaigning heavily against the 75% emissions reduction target. This seat is dependent on coal and cattle and sugar cane. All three industries are big but declining. I don’t think their primary votes will stay put.

John,
You appear to be a little confused about Burdekin.
Burdekin is a traditional safe Country / National / LNP seat. The bulk of the population live in the farming areas on the coastal plain. Giru, Ayr, Home Hill is sugar cane while Bowen is vegetable growing.
Labor has only won Burdekin once in the 74 years it has existed.

The LNP hold just 3 of the 17 seats that are all, or partly, north of the Tropic of Capricorn. Labor hold 10 of the 17 seats.
Do you have any theories on why North Queensland voters have deserted the LNP?

Easy LNP retain, even with the strong Labor candidate. 10+% margin after the election.

I find it interesting that in some regions, KAP is the party of choice for those unimpressed with the majors, whereas in others, One Nation holds that status. KAPs sphere of influence is in North and Northwest Queensland, whereas One Nation’s is in the Mackay and Isaac local government areas. These two forces collide in Burdekin.

There was a significant boundary redistribution before the 2017 election, that cut out parts of Townsville and added in most of Isaac, changing the nature of the electorate. But for some reason KAP didn’t run in 2017, and One Nation surged in their absence. So the only election result that gives a useful guide to the KAP/ON vote in Burdekin is 2020, because it had the same boundaries and both parties were running.

That election showed that the support for each party is very split along LGA lines. The primary vote for KAP is around 20% in the booths within Townsville and Burdekin LGAs, but it dwindles in Isaac where the One Nation primary soars. In the middle is Whitsunday LGA, where KAP is the stronger of the two. Collinsville has a decent KAP primary, but the Bowen area still hasn’t fallen out of love with the Labor Party yet (or at least in 2020 they hadn’t). However, in the remainder of Whitsunday LGA in the electorate of that name, KAP do better in Proserpine but ON do better in Airlie Beach-Cannonvale.

What explains the varying preference between the two parties in different parts of the region? Is it based on the major industries in each area? (trades and white-collar industries in Townsville, cane farming in Burdekin and Proserpine, tourism in Airlie Beach and mining in Isaac)

@Wilson because Bob Katter is from North Queensland and he’s well-known up there.

@Watson Watch – Labor came close to winning Burdekin in 2015 and especially 2017. 2020 wasn’t close but government aligned incumbents did pretty well in the COVID election

Nether Portal, sure, but where does North Queensland end? How do we know this? What specifically makes some parts of Whitsunday prefer KAP and other parts prefer ON? I’m after answers that are a little less simplistic than “Bob Katter is from North Queensland”.

@Wilson North Queensland is generally defined as being north of Mackay I think. The different industries may have something to do with it too but neither party has a high vote in Townsville itself. Anyway KAP does better in rural areas anyway, like in the outback. KAP also has a high vote among Indigenous people.

@Nether Portal I think it’s not that simple. Pauline Hanson is from Ipswich but the highest ON vote is in Mirani. It’s almost like there’s an invisible line in the electorate of Burdekin that separates the KAP (from that point north) and ON (from that point south) vote.

@AA because of the appeal of the constituents. Many One Nation voters are ex-Labor voters who are working-class but more socially conservative than Labor and who work(ed) in the mining industry but then deserted Labor in recent years (I analysed this on another thread, it only really started in 2019). One Nation appeals to them by pro-mining and tough immigration policies as well as criticism of foreign investment/ownership and modern trade unionism. KAP appeals to socially conservative but economically nationalist rural voters who often work in the agricultural industry.

Nether Portal, I used to live in Mackay and my recollection is people there generally saw themselves as North Queenslanders.

In any case, I’m not content to just hand-wave KAPs support away as being what North Queenslanders do. Collinsville went from a 7% KAP primary in 2015 to 17% and 7% in 2020, and I’m interested in why that is, and why that type of gain didn’t go to ON in the same period. I don’t think it suddenly became part of North Queensland in such a short stretch of time.

KAP is obviously not an urban party, but neither is it non-existent in Townsville, it has a primary vote in the mid-high teens in a lot of booths.

That should read “to 17% in 2020”

@Wilson potentially campaigning and actual relevance of the party. Remember Bob only founded the party in 2011 so it took a while for him to expand his party outside Mount Isa and Cloncurry.

The Katter family has been well-known across a swathe of regional Queensland for nearly sixty years now, well beyond the Mount Isa-Cloncurry area, and well before the creation of the party in 2011.

It’s interesting to look at the maps of Kennedy over the years – https://handbook.aph.gov.au/Electorate/Kennedy/State/Queensland – When Robert Katter Snr was the member, the seat extended as far south as Murgon!

Labor almost won this 2017 when this was One Nation’s comeback election. Sam Cox, an ex-MP for Thuringowa, ran for ONP. I’m not sure if his high profile status boosted the party’s result. Labor came first on primaries but most ONP preferences went to LNP. He then ran for KAP in 2020 but didn’t get as much of the vote as in 2017. 2020 was when the combined major party vote increased overall (think the pandemic).