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Possible upset LNP gain if they are going for a 50-55 seat majority. This seat is not just Deception Bay, it also contains my suburb of North Lakes (although I am moving to Melbourne this Tuesday)
North Lakes is a mortgage belt area, allot of young families, an area that Labor was bloodletting recently in federal elections due to their unpopular stances on Negative gearing. Allot of property development around here, a demographic that has recently shifted more to the LNP
This is also the area that witnessed the tragic murder of Emma Lovell just a couple of kilometres from where I still live. Locals around here are demanding more action and the LNP could capitalise on this during the campaign. Labor would absolutely be foolish and selfish to ignore this seat because this would be around 50-50 on federal figures, and on 2019 federal figures, an LNP strong win.
This was around 6-7% margin in 2017 state election, and barely swung at that election. I suspect there will be a huge correction and this seat will just fit the marginal category, but you cannot rule out an LNP gain if they play the issues right, and Labor continues to neglect this community.
While this may be home turf for Miles (Murrumba used to contain NL and DB) The youth crime issue will definitely flip this seat. LNP will likely gain this. If the youth crime issue was the main factor for Ipswich West. that swing would be enough to flip this seat as well.
And if you factor in the murder of Emma Lovell which will still be on the mind of voters in North Lakes, this seat is a prime target for the youth crime issue. If the LNP make this a youth crime election then they can win a whole bunch of seats like this, however if things don’t improve in the 4 years they are in power then these seats will return back to Labor.
This is in the federal seat of Petrie and this seat would be about 50-50 if you replicated 2022 federal to this.
I had Labor retaining Bancroft but I do think the Greater Moreton Bay region is ripe for change this time. Bancroft and Murrumba are yet to have LNP candidates endorsed, which seems odd. I suspect Labor will retain Kurwongbah and Morayfield. But Redcliffe, Murrumba, Bancroft and Pine Rivers are all in play.
@PRP we did discuss the very real possibility of Steven Miles losing his own seat of Murrumba. My predictions have it in doubt still because the margin is only 11% (safe but the LNP are projected to win in a landslide) but of course it is indeed the Premier’s seat.
If things look grim for Labor in the last few weeks, they might see the need to sandbag Murrumba – that will take resources away from somewhere else leading to further losses somewhere else.