Morayfield – QLD 2020

ALP 8.7% vs ON

Incumbent MP
Mark Ryan, since 2015. Previously member for Morayfield 2009-2012.

Geography
South-East Queensland. The seat of Morayfield lies in Moreton Bay local government area between Brisbane and Caboolture. It covers Morayfield and parts of Caboolture, Burpengary and Narangba.

History
The seat of Morayfield was newly created at the 2009 election. It was won by Labor candidate Mark Ryan.

In 2012, Labor’s Mark Ryan was defeated by LNP candidate Darren Grimwade. Ryan returned in 2015, and won Morayfield back off Grimwade. Ryan was re-elected in 2017.

Candidates

Assessment
Morayfield is a reasonably safe Labor seat.

2017 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Mark Ryan Labor 13,10145.8-4.9
Rodney HansenOne Nation7,22325.2+25.2
Jason Snow Liberal National 5,74420.1-10.8
Gavin Behrens Greens 1,7276.0+0.4
Jamie JanulewiczIndependent8372.9+2.9
Informal1,3354.5

2017 two-candidate-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Mark Ryan Labor 16,81458.7-4.8
Rodney HansenOne Nation11,81841.3+41.3

Booth breakdown

Booths in Morayfield have been divided into three areas: central, north and south.

Labor won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 59.8% in the south to 61.7% in the north.

The LNP came third, with a primary vote ranging from 16.7% in the north to 19.5% in the south.

Voter groupLNP primALP 2CPTotal votes% of votes
North16.761.75,41818.9
Central17.561.14,56315.9
South19.559.84,17714.6
Pre-poll22.556.19,71033.9
Other votes21.957.54,76416.6

Election results in Morayfield at the 2017 QLD state election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Labor vs One Nation) and LNP primary votes.


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6 COMMENTS

  1. Well it looks like a 2017 rematch between ALP vs ONP. It might swing a little either way, but with the margin should be safe.

    Prediction (August 2020): ALP Retain

  2. Predicting a closing of the gap between PHON and ALP. Not sure if it will be enough to swing the seat. PHON candidate is a popular local activist and community volunteer. Crime and domestic violence is out of control despite this being the Police Ministers seat. Will be interesting to watch.

  3. Theresa is a solid performer, very smart. Would make an excellent member if she ever got the chance. CEO, business owner and researcher. However I kind of think this is a taking-one-for-the-team.

    Not that Mark Ryan is a ray of sunshine – his record isn’t the best (and his slow response to abusive volunteers at the last election was a bad look); But I don’t think the LNP are playing to win here.

    If anything it might make the ALP/PHON contest more interesting and might possibly knock Ryan out on preferences.

    Will be interesting to watch

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