Redlands – Queensland 2015

LNP 21.10%

Incumbent MP
Peter Dowling, since 2009.

Geography
Redlands is mostly in Redland LGA, along with part of Logan City. The seat covers Sheldon, Mount Cotton, Carbrook, Victoria Point and Redland Bay, as well as a number of Moreton Bay Islands.

History
Redlands has existed since the 1972 election. The seat has alternated between the ALP and the National Party, and is now held by the Liberal National Party.

The seat was won in 1972 by the ALP’s Edgar Baldwin. He lost in 1974 to the Country Party’s John Goleby. He held the seat until 1985, when he was succeeded by the National Party’s Paul Clauson.

Clauson lost in 1989 to the ALP’s Darryl Briskey. Briskey moved to the seat of Cleveland in 1992, holding it until his retirement in 2006.

Briskey was succeeded by Labor candidate John Budd. He held the seat for one term, losing in 1995 to National candidate John Hegarty.

Hegarty held the seat for two terms, and in the 2001 landslide election lost to the ALP’s John English.

English held the seat until 2009, when he lost to Liberal National candidate Peter Dowling. Dowling was re-elected in 2012.

Candidates
Sitting Liberal National MP Peter Dowling is not running for re-election, after being denied preselection in late 2014.

Assessment
Redlands is held by a hefty 21.1% margin, but this disguises how marginal the seat has been in the past. The seat was held by Labor from 2001 to 2009, and Dowling won in 2009 with a 0.1% margin. The current margin is due to a huge 21% swing in 2012.

Considering the pre-2012 history of the seat, and Dowling’s controversial tenure holding the seat, Redlands will likely see a large swing back to Labor, but it will still be hard for the LNP to lose the seat.

2012 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Peter Dowling Liberal National 17,849 65.80 +21.08
Peter Seage Labor 6,524 24.05 -18.97
David Keogh Greens 2,753 10.15 +4.91

2012 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Peter Dowling Liberal National 18,381 71.10 +21.03
Peter Seage Labor 7,471 28.90 -21.03
Polling places in Redlands at the 2012 Queensland state election. East in green, North in blue, West in yellow. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Redlands at the 2012 Queensland state election. East in green, North in blue, West in yellow. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Redlands have been divided into three parts: east, north and west.

The Liberal National Party’s primary vote ranged from 63.1% in the east to 66.5% in the west. The LNP two-party vote ranged from 68.9% in the east to 72.7% in the west.

The Labor vote ranged from 21.9% in the west to 25.6% in the east.

The Greens vote ranged from 9.5% in the north to 11.7% in the west.

The Electoral Commission does not publish two-party-preferred figures by polling place, so two-party-preferred figures in the following table and map are estimates.

Voter group LNP prim % ALP prim % GRN prim % LNP 2PP % Total % of votes
North 65.84 24.70 9.46 70.77 9,324 34.37
East 63.11 25.64 11.24 68.87 6,528 24.07
West 66.47 21.86 11.67 72.67 3,454 12.73
Other votes 67.70 22.92 9.39 72.67 7,820 28.83
Estimated two-party-preferred votes in Redlands at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Estimated two-party-preferred votes in Redlands at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Greens primary votes in Redlands at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Greens primary votes in Redlands at the 2012 Queensland state election.

6 COMMENTS

  1. Labor has a great candidate in Deb Kellie. But the 20% margin is hard to get in one election, LNP insiders said the seat would of been gone if incumbent Peter Dowling re-contested.

    But the election of LNP candidate Matt McEachan has caused a rift in the LNP branches with Peter Dowling sister Sheena Hewlett resigning and saying she will contest as an independent because her husband City Councillor Lance Hewlett didn’t win the nomination.

    Labor will blow a big hole in the margin, but a 20% swing in one election is unlikely. LNP to retain.

  2. We know the policy of LNP,ALP, and the crazy Greens. How do we contact Sheena Hewlett and Family first to find out what they are all about?

  4. Labor won’t pick this up anytime in the future if it doesn’t gain it this time, hard to see where labor would have another good op here

  5. The swing toward the LNP in 2012 was in response to what the populace saw as a bettrayal by the Bligh government by selling off some public assets. Consensus of the time, assisted by a notably biased media, indicated this outcome was as a result of voters seeking a change of representation. Voters are sick of politicians who place more emphasis on their own agendas than listening to the concerns of their constituents. Regardless of political allegiance, the Newman Government has been arrogant, dictatorial and ignorant of representing these concerns. The LNP don’t deserve respect and must be held accountable for their atrocious lies which many believed. Hopefully these citizens are now more aware of the ramifications this time aroind. The platform for Thid election should be about returning public services most of the populace expect and deserve from any Party given the honour of governing the good people of Queensland.

Comments are closed.