Chatsworth – Queensland 2015

LNP 14.14%

Incumbent MP
Steve Minnikin, since 2012.

Geography
South-Eastern parts of the City of Brisbane. Chatsworth covers the Brisbane suburbs of Tingalpa, Belmont, Carindale, Carina Heights, Gumdale, Chandler and parts of Carina.

History
Chatsworth was first created at the 1960 election. The seat was dominated by the Liberal Party in its early years, with the Liberals holding the seat from 1960 to 1977.

In 1977 the Labor Party made a recovery against the governing National-Liberal coalition, gaining twelve seats. In Chatsworth the seat was won by the ALP’s Terry Mackenroth.

Mackenroth became a minister in the new Labor government in 1989, serving as a minister until Labor lost power in 1996. He returned to the ministry in the new Labor government in 1998.

In 2000, Mackenroth was elected Deputy Premier in the Beattie government. He became Treasurer in 2001 and served in both those roles until his retirement in 2005.

Mackenroth had held on to Chatsworth in 2004 with a 61.4% margin. This margin collapsed at the 2005 by-election, with the Liberal candidate, Brisbane City councillor Michael Caltabiano, winning the seat with a 13.9% swing.

Caltabiano was one of only seven Liberal MPs after his by-election win and he quickly rose through the ranks of the opposition. He was appointed Shadow Treasurer shortly before the 2006 state election.

At that election, Caltabiano lost Chatsworth to the Labor candidate, former sports presenter Chris Bombolas. The ALP won by barely 400 votes. Bombolas became a parliamentary secretary in the Labor government in 2007 and then retired due to poor health in 2009.

At the 2009 state election, the Liberal National Party ran Angela Caltabiano, wife of the former MP. The ALP ran firefighter Steve Kilburn.

The result was extremely close, with the ALP’s Kilburn eventually declared the winner. The case went to court and after six months the ALP was confirmed as the winner, winning by only 85 votes.

In 2012, Kilburn was defeated by LNP candidate Steve Minnikin.

Candidates

Assessment
Chatsworth was a very marginal seat in the late 2000s. The Liberal Party narrowly won the seat at a 2005 by-election, then Labor held on with margins of less than 1% in 2006 and 2009. In normal circumstances, you would expect to see the seat’s margin cut dramatically, even if the seat does not change hands.

2012 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Steve Minnikin Liberal National 16,390 55.82 +10.78
Steve Kilburn Labor 8,694 29.61 -14.26
Sarah Henry Katter’s Australian 1,856 6.32 +6.32
Jason Cooney Greens 1,836 6.25 -0.79
Axel Beard Family First 585 1.99 +1.99

2012 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Steve Minnikin Liberal National 17,464 63.94 +14.08
Steve Kilburn Labor 9,848 36.06 -14.08
Polling places in Chatsworth at the 2012 Queensland state election. East in blue, South in orange, West in green. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Chatsworth at the 2012 Queensland state election. East in blue, South in orange, West in green. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Chatsworth have been divided into three parts: east, south and west.

The Liberal National Party topped the primary vote in all three areas, and won a majority of the primary vote in two areas. The LNP vote ranges from 49.6% in the west to 59.8% in the south.

The Labor vote ranged from 27.9% in the east to 34.9% in the west.

On a two-party-preferred vote, the LNP won a majority in all three areas ranging from 57.6% in the west to 66.8% in the south.

The Electoral Commission does not publish two-party-preferred figures by polling place, so two-party-preferred figures in the following table and map are estimates.

Voter group LNP prim % ALP prim % LNP 2PP % Total % of votes
East 56.85 27.93 65.54 8,452 28.64
South 59.80 28.10 66.75 8,025 27.19
West 49.60 34.90 57.58 5,101 17.28
Other votes 55.55 28.96 64.19 7,934 26.88
Estimated two-party-preferred votes in Chatsworth at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Estimated two-party-preferred votes in Chatsworth at the 2012 Queensland state election.

8 COMMENTS

  1. Safe LNP retain, Minnikin has been one of the best first term LNP Members and a relatively unknown Labor candidate. This Electorate is quite well-off and becoming more conservative in recent times.

  2. I wouldn’t call any seat they gained in Brisbane safe retain.whilst I think this is a long shot for labor I wouldn’t call this more conservative in recent times. The reason it’s on the margin it is because there was no chance of it being retained

  3. Chatsworth is always a tough seat to hold and or win. Nominally labor the demographics are changing as more middle class homes are established in the Wakerley area and acreage in the Gumdale area are broken up. Minnikin would do well to hold this seat and is always one to watch. From the time I lived there from 1994 to 2013 the population grew drastically(around 15%) and bush areas are continuing to change into large two story homes. Steve should hold this one but has to be one of the ones to watch at any election.

  4. Isn’t this the most conservative part of the federal division of Bonner? Bonner’s been won by the Libs in three of its four contests.

    The fact that the ALP only barely won Chatsworth in 2006 & 2009 suggests it will be an uphill climb in 2015. True, Labor didn’t have an incumbent contesting in either of those years, but then neither will they this year.

  5. That comment really generalises the seat. 2009 margin before and after. No incumbent in 09 with a margin of less then 1%…

  6. Minnikin won’t answer my question posed to him about whether he would support broadening of the GST from a Queensland perspective. He has been useless in this electorate and seems to only care about doing Newman’s bidding.

Comments are closed.