Aspley – Queensland 2015

LNP 21.75%

Incumbent MP
Tracy Davis, since 2009.

Geography
South-East Queensland. Aspley covers the northern Brisbane suburbs of Bridgeman Downs, Carseldine, Aspley and parts of Bald Hills, McDowall and Chermside West.

History
The seat of Aspley has existed since 1960. For most of that period the seat was contested between the Liberal Party and the National Party, apart from the period from 2001 to 2009 when it was held by the ALP.

Fred Campbell held the seat for the Liberal Party from 1960 to 1980. He was succeeded in 1980 by Beryce Nelson, who won the seat for the Liberal Party.

In 1983, Nelson lost to the National Party’s candidate, former newsreader Brian Cahill.

After losing the seat, Nelson switched to the National Party, and was elected again as Member for Aspley in 1986. In 1989, Nelson was again defeated, losing to the Liberal Party’s John Goss.

Goss helped the seat throughout the 1990s, twice serving as a shadow minister in National-Liberal coalitions.

In 2001, Goss was defeated by the ALP’s Bonny Barry. Barry won successive terms in 2004 and 2006, and in 2009 was defeated by the Liberal National Party’s Tracy Davis.

Davis was re-elected in 2012, and has served as Minister for Communities, Child Safety and Disability Services since the 2012 election.

Candidates

Assessment
Aspley is a reasonably safe LNP seat.

2012 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Tracy Davis Liberal National 17,923 65.43 +15.45
Oskar Bronowicki Labor 6,449 23.54 -17.27
David Forrest Greens 2,035 7.43 +0.58
Allan Vincent Family First 985 3.60 +1.24

2012 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Tracy Davis Liberal National 18,718 71.75 +17.29
Oskar Bronowicki Labor 7,370 28.25 -17.29
Polling places in Aspley at the 2012 Queensland state election. Central in blue, North in green, South in orange. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Aspley at the 2012 Queensland state election. Central in blue, North in green, South in orange. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Aspley have been divided into three parts: central, north and south.

The Liberal National Party’s primary vote ranged from 53.8% in the north to 67.3% in the south. The two-party-preferred vote for the LNP ranged from 62.1% in the north to 73.5% in the south.

Labor’s primary vote ranged from 21.9% in the south to 31% in the north.

The Electoral Commission does not publish two-party-preferred figures by polling place, so two-party-preferred figures in the following table and map are estimates.

Voter group LNP prim % ALP prim % LNP 2PP % Total % of votes
South 67.25 21.86 73.49 8,547 31.20
Central 67.11 22.51 73.15 8,273 30.20
North 53.79 31.00 62.06 2,781 10.15
Other votes 65.81 23.84 71.71 7,791 28.44
Estimated two-party-preferred votes in Aspley at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Estimated two-party-preferred votes in Aspley at the 2012 Queensland state election.

6 COMMENTS

  3. Yes this seat was held by Labor in 2006 on a 54.3 two party preferred and Bonny Barry was looking good. In 2009 under Bligh there was a massive campaign against her as she prepared to lodge abortion legislation similar to the Victorian legislation passed there in 2008. She had over a 7% swing against her as virtually every church group in the Northern Suburbs as well as many support groups worked together to unseat her. It shocked the Emily’s list group to take a step back until the 2012 election when Karen Struthers looked close to doing the same in Algester. Her two party preferred fell from 59.02 to 40.08 when she ran on lodging a similar bill

  4. Labor’s primary vote would have to be 39+ to have a real chance which would be hard but Davis had been a poor Minister. I recon this would be vulnerable at the 2018 election regardless of each parties standing

  5. There was an article in late 2013 saying this was labor ahead but would have come back a bit. Still see this as being a marginal LNP seat after the election now that Davis profile has gone down a lot

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