The Tally Room

We're getting close to the end! In this update, I am calling two more seats for Labor, leaving only one seat up for grabs. This leaves a total of: 76 - Coalition 68 - Labor 5 - Others 1 - undecided Seat Absent Provisional Pre-poll Postal Current Labor lead Projected Labor lead Cowan 2219 0 2774 216 1030 728 Herbert 276 969 867 1098 -34 -196 Hindmarsh 2644 1571 489 791 617 889 Cowan There...

Following yesterday's post analysing the NSW, VIC and QLD Senate counts, here's my analysis of Western Australia, South Australia and an update of the Tasmanian race. Western Australia Full quotas: 5 Liberal, 3 Labor, 1 Greens Parties in the race: 0.7027 - Labor 0.5025 - One Nation 0.3378...

Up until now, I've largely ignored preferences when working out who are the leading contenders for Senate seats. While the new system will likely make it impossible for parties on a tiny vote to jump ahead of a number of contenders, preferences are still...

Sorry there was no update yesterday - I only have limited time each day and I devoted it to my takedown of electronic voting in the Guardian. In today's update I'm calling three more seats for the Coalition giving them 76 seats. Labor is leading...

I didn't get a chance to do an update yesterday morning as I headed over to Moorebank to observe the NSW Senate count - I'll come back to that topic soon with a post on the Senate race. Seat summary I'm calling Gilmore for the Coalition, as I...

We've made some more progress yesterday, and I believe we can narrow this list from nine to seven seats today. As a reminder, the first four columns of data in this spreadsheet represent the AEC's official data on how many votes are left to be processed...

The Senate data published on election night was very messy. For a start, it didn't make any effort to distinguish above-the-line and below-the-line votes, instead throwing all votes for each group into one pile. Secondly, a lot of votes that will turn out to be formal...

Quite a bit of counting took place yesterday. Yesterday we narrowed the list of seats to watch from 17 to 12, and today I think we can narrow that list to nine. Seat summary I'm ready to call Melbourne Ports for Labor and Grey and Dunkley for...

We saw a small amount of counting yesterday, but we should be able to narrow the list of undecided seats. When I last posted, I listed 17 seats as in some doubt. This included 13 conventional Labor-Coalition races, plus Grey and Cowper, where we were...

There's been a lot of arguments coming out suggesting that Pauline Hanson and the rest of her team are only contenders for seats thanks to the Senate voting reforms, and the double dissolution. Clearly a double dissolution made it easier for all small parties, including...