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With the Liberals ditching net zero – and probably less of a focus on Israel next time around – this is a seat where the Liberal primary vote is likely to drop back below 30% again in 2028.
Greens might get back up into the high 20s too and challenge the Liberals to make the 2CP, but Josh Burns is very safe here for the foreseeable future as neither party has a chance of knocking him off for a while. He’ll retain a 10%+ 2CP margin regardless of who the opponent is.
Agreed. This is a seat that the Greens will get competitive in but is just far too strong for Labor to lose. Josh Burns clearly has a decent personal vote despite the polarisation between the St Kildas and Caulfields on Gaza last election. Unless the Liberals preference the Greens or vice versa (which will happen after hell freezes over) then Labor will retain on either Greens or the Libs preferences.
@ Trent
I agree Liberal PV will fall but i think the anger among Jewish/Muslim communities will not heal easily even with a Gaza Ceasefire. Josh Burns was able to increase his vote in the Parks, South Melbourne and the Parks to offset loss of Jewish votes. I think Labor is less dependent on the Jewish community.ALso much of the population growth here is happening around Fishermens Bend etc which is diluting the Jewish community as they live in the lease dense and most suburban part of the seat. We neeed to remember that Gaza actually helped Labor in some areas like Holt, Bruce and Calwell (on notional 2PP). It will also likely help Labor in the state seat of Greenvale. In a way all parties probably benefited from the Gaza war but in different areas.
If the Liberals remain unpopular and uncommitted to net zero, there could be a Liberal to Labor swing.
I reckon the Greens will put more resources into Melbourne or Wills in 2028. Both seats have lower margins and include the Greens in the 2CP.
@ Votante
With Melbourne you may need to factor a sophomure surge for Sarah Witty