IND 2.7% vs ALP
Incumbent MP
Dai Le, since 2022.
Geography
South-western Sydney, in particular parts of Liverpool and Fairfield council areas. Fowler covers the Liverpool CBD and the suburbs of Cabramatta, Canley Vale, Lansvale, Bonnyrigg, Chipping Norton, Warwick Farm and Bossley Park.
History
Fowler was first created for the 1984 election as part of the expansion of the size of the House of Representatives. It had always been a very safe Labor seat until 2022.
The seat was first won in 1984 by the ALP’s Ted Grace. Grace held the seat for fourteen years, retiring in 1998. He was succeeded by Julia Irwin, also from the ALP. Irwin held the seat until 2010.
In 2010, Irwin retired and he was replaced as Labor candidate by Chris Hayes. Hayes had held the neighbouring seat of Werriwa for five years, but had been forced to change seats to make room for Laurie Ferguson, whose seat had effectively been abolished. Hayes had been re-elected in Fowler three times.
Hayes retired in 2022, and the ALP ended up preselecting former premier and sitting senator Kristina Keneally. Keneally was set to lose her Senate seat and was seen as a leading figure in the party. Hayes had instead supported Tu Le, but the party chose Keneally. Keneally ended up going on to lose to Fairfield deputy mayor Dai Le, running as an independent. Le was re-elected in 2025.
Assessment
This section will be filled in closer to the election.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Tu Le | Labor | 34,909 | 37.6 | +1.0 |
| Dai Le | Independent | 31,108 | 33.5 | +5.2 |
| Vivek Singha | Liberal | 11,404 | 12.3 | -5.3 |
| Avery Howard | Greens | 6,288 | 6.8 | +1.9 |
| Tony Margos | One Nation | 3,835 | 4.1 | +0.5 |
| Jared Athavle | Family First | 3,598 | 3.9 | +3.9 |
| Victor Tey | Libertarian | 1,796 | 1.9 | +1.9 |
| Informal | 15,079 | 14.0 | +3.4 |
2025 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Dai Le | Independent | 48,956 | 52.7 | +1.2 |
| Tu Le | Labor | 43,982 | 47.3 | -1.2 |
2025 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Tu Le | Labor | 63,371 | 68.2 | +12.3 |
| Vivek Singha | Liberal | 29,567 | 31.8 | -12.3 |
Booths have been divided into three parts: central, south and west. The “south” area covers all those booths in the Liverpool council area, while those in Fairfield council area have been split into “central” and “west”.
Dai Le won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote in the west (61.3%) while Labor won 52.3% in the centre and 52.8% in the south.
The Liberal Party came third, with a primary vote ranging from 6.7% in the centre to 16.1% in the south.
| Voter group | LIB prim | IND 2CP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 6.7 | 47.7 | 13,360 | 14.4 |
| West | 14.0 | 61.3 | 8,736 | 9.4 |
| South | 16.1 | 47.2 | 7,487 | 8.1 |
| Pre-poll | 12.1 | 53.5 | 51,705 | 55.6 |
| Other votes | 15.6 | 51.6 | 11,650 | 12.5 |
Election results in Fowler at the 2025 federal election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Independent vs Labor), two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, independent candidate Dai Le and the Liberal Party.
Despite Labor running Tu Le who is a good fit for the area, Dai Le managed to hold on and had a small swing in her favour. Dai could be like Cathy McGowan/Helen Haines in Indi, being a durable incumbent who will hold onto this seat until she chooses to retire.
One interesting thing is a big notional Swing back to Labor. Labor got 84% notional versus Lib in some of its heartland booths in Cabramatta, Yennora so this seat is not showing signs of realigning to Libs
If Labor couldn’t beat dai le in its best election since sliced bread with a superstar candidate its hard to see them winning against Dai Le ever.
Unless Dai Le backs a minority Coalition government.
Nimalan, would there be a significant impact if Dai Le chooses to back the Coalition under a minority government? I thought Dai was a former Liberal member herself and being seen as a community minded independent similar to the Teals, she shouldn’t have any problem winning re-election no matter which side she ends up supporting.
Unless she is like Rob Oakeshott and Tony Windsor, who were criticised harshly when they sided with Labor and Gillard instead of the Coalition due to holding a seat that naturally ‘leans’ in the other direction.
@ Yoh An
Maybe not to the extent as Rob Oakshott and tony Windsor their seats are both econimically and socially conservative. While Fowler is more like a reverse Teal seat (Economically left, Socially conservative on religious matters but not Nationalist etc)/ However, this seat would not take kindly to budget cuts etc or IR reform.
I dont think that’s gonna matter for at least 10 years. The libs aren’t gonna be in a position to govern in any form in 2028. Even if she backs them in 2031 she won’t face any repercussions until 2034.
The swings in different parts of the electorate tell an interesting story. Dai Le consolidated her primary vote in the western end of the electorate. In the eastern end (particularly Cabramatta), there were big primary vote swings to Labor. The two cancelled each other out, and the overall 2CP swing was small. This could also in part explain why the 2PP surged in Labor’s favour.