GRN 2.6% vs LNP
Incumbent MP
Elizabeth Watson-Brown, since 2022.
Geography
Ryan covers the western suburbs of Brisbane. The seat covers the north side of the Brisbane river from Auchenflower through Toowong, Indooroopilly, Chapel Hill and Kenmore. It also covers suburbs further north including The Gap and Ferny Grove.
History
Ryan was first created in 1949. The seat was first won by Nigel Drury in 1949 for the Liberal Party. Drury held the seat until 1975, mainly serving as a backbencher. He was succeeded by John Moore in 1975. Moore served as a minister in Malcolm Fraser’s final term and served in the shadow cabinet during the Hawke/Keating governments.
Moore served as Minister for Industry, Science and Tourism in John Howard’s first government and become Minister for Defence after the 1998 election. He lost the portfolio in a reshuffle in December 2000 and proceeded to resign from Parliament early in 2001.
A swing of 9.7% gave the normally safe Liberal seat to Labor candidate Leonie Short by 255 votes. Liberal candidate Michael Johnson won back the seat at the 2001 general election. Johnson was reelected in 2004 and 2007. A 6.6% swing to the ALP in 2007 made the seat marginal, and the ensuing redistribution cut the margin further.
Michael Johnson was expelled from the Liberal National Party in May 2010 due to controversies surrounding his role as Chair of the Australia-China Business Forum.
The LNP preselected Brisbane city councillor Jane Prentice in 2010. Prentice won the seat comfortably. Michael Johnson ran as an independent, and came fourth with 8.5% of the vote. Prentice won two more terms in 2013 and 2016.
Prentice lost LNP preselection in 2019 to Brisbane City councillor Julian Simmonds, and he went on to win the seat with relative ease.
Simmonds lost his seat in 2022 to Greens candidate Elizabeth Watson-Brown. The LNP and Labor primary votes both dropped, with the Greens primary vote increasing to push Watson-Brown into second place on primary votes, and Labor preferences gave her a majority of votes after preferences.
Assessment
This seat is a complex race to watch. For Watson-Brown to win re-election, she not only needs to win the preferential count but she also needs to stay ahead of Labor.
Lower house Greens MPs usually increase their support with the benefit of incumbency, and that would be particularly helpful in seeing off the Labor threat.
The LNP’s chances of regaining the seat partly depend on the Coalition’s ability to rebuild its support amongst inner-city voters. They do not appear to have made much progress on that front yet, which should help Watson-Brown.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Julian Simmonds | Liberal National | 38,239 | 38.5 | -10.1 |
| Elizabeth Watson-Brown | Greens | 30,003 | 30.2 | +9.9 |
| Peter Cossar | Labor | 22,146 | 22.3 | -2.1 |
| Damian Coory | Liberal Democrats | 2,582 | 2.6 | +2.6 |
| Joel Love | One Nation | 2,237 | 2.3 | +0.1 |
| Kathryn Pollard | United Australia | 2,062 | 2.1 | +0.6 |
| Jina Lipman | Animal Justice | 1,088 | 1.1 | -0.8 |
| Janine Rees | Labor | 606 | 0.6 | +0.6 |
| Axel Dancoisne | Federation Party | 353 | 0.4 | +0.4 |
| Informal | 3,140 | 3.1 | +0.7 |
2022 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
| Elizabeth Watson-Brown | Greens | 52,286 | 52.6 |
| Julian Simmonds | Liberal National | 47,030 | 47.4 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Peter Cossar | Labor | 52,062 | 52.4 | +8.5 |
| Julian Simmonds | Liberal National | 47,254 | 47.6 | -8.5 |
Booths have been divided into four areas. Most of the population lies at the eastern end of the electorate, and these areas have been split into three areas. From north to south, these are Enoggera, The Gap and Indooroopilly. The remainder of the booths, most of which lie near the Brisbane River, have been grouped as “West”.
There are two different thresholds that decide who wins Ryan: firstly, who is leading in the race between Labor and the Greens? And then, after preferences, does the LNP have a majority against the main progressive opponent?
On a two-candidate-preferred basis, the Greens won a majority in three out of four areas, ranging from 56% in Enoggera to 57.2% in the Gap. The LNP won 52.9% in the west. The Greens also won 52.3% of the pre-poll votes and the LNP won 51.7% of the other vote.
On a primary vote basis, the Greens outpolled Labor in three out of four areas, with the Greens primary vote peaking at 36% in Indooroopilly. Labor polled 28% in Enoggera, outpolling the Greens in that area.
Generally the Labor vote was highest at the northern end of the seat, the Greens vote highest in the eastern end of the seat, and the LNP vote highest in the south.
| Voter group | GRN prim | ALP prim | GRN 2CP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Indooroopilly | 36.3 | 19.5 | 56.2 | 18,433 | 18.6 |
| The Gap | 34.1 | 22.9 | 57.2 | 11,435 | 11.5 |
| Enoggera | 26.9 | 28.4 | 56.0 | 8,569 | 8.6 |
| West | 28.6 | 18.1 | 47.1 | 5,271 | 5.3 |
| Pre-poll | 29.5 | 23.0 | 52.3 | 30,812 | 31.0 |
| Other votes | 26.3 | 22.0 | 48.3 | 24,796 | 25.0 |
Election results in Ryan at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Greens vs LNP), two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, the Greens and Labor.
Joeldipops
Climate200 is not an environmental movement as such. It is a political vehicle for the renewable energy industry. Some of its big donors are big investors in renewable energy projects – they are not investing out of altruism they are investing to make money. They are not fundamentally a business lobby group no different to the Business Counil, Mining Council or Gina Rinehardt except they are more disengenuous about the whole thing. They are big end of town but would like everybody to think they are not.
I would love to know if there was a deal made for there to be no Teals running in Brisbane. Ryan is a natural Teal seat possibly even Brisbane. Same with Higgins or Macnamara in 2022. Who made the decision not to run and why?
@Clarinet of Communists – I was on prepoll today too, from midday until 3pm! Most fun I’ve ever had on prepoll!
Cool! What booth were you on?
@redistributed I support renewables but do agree about the teals. I suspect they decided the greens support most of their main issues, so there’s not much point challenging them.
Easy answer Redistributed. Ryan, Higgins, Brisbane and MacNamara are marginals that are not Coalition seats, yet could be won by the Coalition, so why would the Teals run against their allies and cost them the seats.
The Teals depend on tactical voting from Labor/Greens so why would a Labor voter voted teal in Macnamara when they already had a Labor MP. In Brisbane, there is a recent history of it being Labor held so Labor voters did not need to tactically vote Teal to oust Libs.
@Clarinet of Communists – Indro booth! I handing out for labor near the entrance. What about yourself?
Bellbowrie, I sort of wandered around, we were sort of overloaded on people lmao!
Oh nice, I heard there were a lot of people there!
I was looking at suggestions for the 2018 Queensland redistribution. The Greens suggestion was very telling about their expectations and aspirations at the time.
They had Griffith move west into the north of Moreton (Annerley, Yeronga, etc.), and losing a slice of its east (the proposed boundary was hideous) to Bonner.
They wanted Brisbane to lose its eastern end (to Lilley) and extend west into Ryan. Then they had Ryan push north into the Pine Rivers.
Had this come to fruition, Brisbane and Griffith would be safer for The Greens – but they wouldn’t have won Ryan.
Is it crazy to say that I think this is the Greens’ safest Brisbane seat? The main threat to the Greens in their QLD electorates is the ALP, which has a serious chance of overtaking the LNP on 3CP in both Brisbane and Griffith. However, that possibility is more remote here, and I don’t see Ryan (or any of the three Brisbane seats, to be fair) swinging back to the LNP in any substantial way – young, educated inner-city voters and Peter Dutton do not seem to mix well. If the Greens lose out in Brisbane I feel like there’s a real chance Ryan will be the last to go, instead of Griffith as everyone is tipping (see: Maiwar vs. South Brisbane at the state election). Of course, all three seats are very close and I wouldn’t be surprised at results ranging anywhere from 3 Greens retains to even 3 Labor pickups. The only outcome that has been entertained in the media which I can’t see happening is the LNP winning Brisbane.
I agree, inari28 – I think Ryan is the safest Greens seat in QLD. Below Melbourne and Ryan it’s a lot harder to rank the other 5 in the Greens’ top defence / target seats because so much depends on the relative strength of the two majors, not just the Greens primary vote – or in Wills just whether the sheer juggernaut of Sam Ratnam campaigning in the seat is enough to shift the quantum of votes needed to win.
Would take a significant bleed for Labor to overtake the LNP on 3CP in Griffith once you account for the RW minor parties preference distribution.
I reckon there’s still under 5% in the LNP-ALP gap in Griffith (anyone have 3CP statistics?) and a swing that big from the LNP and/or Greens is possible given Labor has run a visible campaign and the LNP hasn’t. The GRN-ALP gap in Ryan is a bit bigger, and I don’t think the ALP is as well-placed to gain as big of a swing there. For what it’s worth, my prediction has Ryan and Griffith down as Greens retains at the moment but Brisbane as a Labor gain.
Labor aren’t targeting here and they won’t make the count
Melbourne is the greens safest seat by far
It would be a mistake to dismiss the prospects of the Labor candidate winning Ryan. Firstly, the Greens MP in Maiwar saw a 7.4% swing against him in the 2024 state election and the Labor candidate recieving a swing of 6.7%. This may suggest that the honeymoon period for the Greens has lapsed since Berkman is a pretty well liked State MP, to the advantage of the Labor Party rather than the LNP (who only recieved a primary vote swing of 0.5%).
Secondly, the Labor candidate has placed direct voter contact at the heart of her campaign (rather than flashy billboards) and has been focusing a great deal of time in the Gap (attempting to take advantage of Labor State MP Jonty Bush’s personal popularity). The commitment to open a Medicare Mental Health Clinic in the Gap demonstrates this fact.
Thirdly, the LNP and Greens candidates’ lackluster campaign needs to be mentioned. Dispite spending possibly over a MILLION dollars over the course of 6 months, the LNP’s performance in the polls show no meaningful gains (which can be attributed to the hardline conservative talking points of Forrest failing to win voters over). On the flipside, the Greens MP had won the seat in 2022 with a vigorous ground campaign with a large team of volunteers that is noticably missing from this year’s campaign. This is combined with her unpopularity with community groups due to a general sense of neglect (which the Labor candidate has taken full advantage of as seen on her social media).
Of course, this doesn’t mean that Labor is certainly going to win as their are plenty of elements in play that make everything unpredictable. What I do wish to stress is that this is a three way race between Labor, Greens, and LNP.
[For transparency, I have campaigned for the Labor Candidate for the last 6 months and have lived in Ryan since 2009. The Bellbowrie PrePoll Station is incredible btw lmao]
This seat is going to be very close, I lean towards the side of Greens retain but in terms of probabilities it’s probably 60/40 GRN/LNP. I am a greens voter in this seat so a bit biased, but I did correctly predict it as green gain in 2022 (and predicted that the GRN-LNP 2CP would be better than the 2PP because there are a few wealthy 1 GRN 2 LNP type voters).
I’m confused as to why the Liberals are still considered the favourites or 50-50 at worst in this seat. I would expect the Greens as the incumbent to solidify the left-wing vote behind them, or at least not be threatened by Labor in the 3CP considering the gap in 2022. Meanwhile, I don’t see this being a seat that is trending right – quite the opposite, even – and the Liberals don’t look to be improving on their numbers from 2022 in this election nationally. So I’m not sure why there seems to be a perception that this seat will buck the trend. Everything that I can observe from outside the electorate itself seems to point to a Greens retain.
This is a seat that voted Yes for the voice, so not a great fit for a Dutton lead LNP. I think its Green retain with a 0.5-1.5% lnp swing
Seems like I was right about Ryan being last to go, although I seriously did not anticipate this big of a Labor victory. It may be an election cycle or two before the Greens can start winning GRN/ALP contests in Queensland – after this result I see Griffith likely to stay naturally GRN/ALP apart from at elections where Labor is at a low ebb. Even if Watson-Brown retains, she is in danger at the next election as the demographics in Ryan are becoming more and more friendly to Labor.
@inari28, what are your thoughts on Watson-Brown retaining? The trend isnt favouring her, with the margin between ALP and GRN getting thinner.
Postals are about half-counted right now. It’s true that ALP is gaining on them but the current rate would only be just enough to close the 796 vote margin currently, and the gain rate probably weakens in later postals so that might be an overestimate. Then the absents will favour the Greens, and then after that the Greens should gain on the 3CP from the minor party preferences (right-wing minors were found to benefit GRN over ALP in 2022 in Brisbane count). So obviously more counting still required but it seems to me the Greens are just escaping danger.
Although Advance has run a very high profile campaign to put The Greens last, which would appeal to far right minor party voters. I think the minor party preferences would favour Labor over The Greens.
@inari28 how are Ryan’s demographics becoming more friendly to Labor? As a long-term local I reckon they’re becoming less friendly for Labor, as formerly working class suburbs like Mitchelton and Keperra continue to gentrify.
Trumpet of Patriots preferences for this seat are LAB – LNP – GRN for some reason, which would boost Labor. Adherence to this order is probably very low though, did anyone in Ryan see any TOP volunteers? I didn’t.
@The Banana Republic
That’s true, I didn’t even think about TOP’s obvious inability to distribute their cards. That’s not a great sign for Labor.
Did anyone else see The Poll Bludger classify this as a “Lean Labor Gain”?
Huh? I’ve been checking PB’s count closely and it’s never ticked to favouring Labor (aside from perhaps very early results). Right now it projects a 3CP of 31.7% GRN to 29.9% ALP.
Read his “Late Counting” thread. I’m confused on his Ryan section, but he does say Labor gain
It’s strange because his reasoning seems to be mostly in favour of the Greens. It’s not really clear why he favours Labor. Maybe he has access to scrutineering information which implies a different preference flow than last election but it doesn’t say.
“The primary vote currently has the Greens on 29.1% and Labor on 28.2%, which I am projecting to narrow to 28.6% to 28.2%. The question then becomes whether preferences out of 7.8% scattered among minor candidates, almost all of them right-wing, can close the gap for the Greens. Not quite, is the verdict of my preference estimates. But it can’t be ruled out entirely. Verdict: leaning Labor gain.”
Personally I don’t think it’s very likely that right-wing minor preferences switch to favouring Labor, as that goes against the common trend across all kinds of seats in recent elections where the tendency to “put the majors last” helps candidates that are ideologically opposed when up against a major. But without a preference throw we’ll be left speculating.
NineFax is also calling Ryan for the Greens. I’m similarly not sure of their reasoning for this call.
@Adda
What/who is Ninefax? and yes, the reasoning does seem quite odd, I was taken aback to see it.
To explain the above – Labor has to pick up more preferences from the right wing parties than the Greens. Labor will benefit from the donkey vote though that would seem small and ToP preferences (wouldn’t rely on them though). The big hope for Labor is they do better on the Absents than the Greens. Too close to call at this stage.
@Jim F Channel 9/Fairfax. They share the same projections across their media.
@The Banana Republic I was in Ryan for most of prepoll, didn’t see any TOP volunteers.
Assuming no other green wins. Elizabeth-watson brown will likely become the new leader. If she loses id expect someone like Sarah hanson-young. Expect the greens to come back in 2028 and target Wills, Cooper, Macnamara and Melbourne. They may try agaon in those qld seats too. Richmond the only way they can win is if the coalition come back and finish 2nd given in a greens vs labor race they cannot win.
They’ve gotten damn close in wills in lab vs gen, it’s not impossible. Although I agree it’s much harder, same in Griffith and Melbourne.
Watson Brown over Larissa or one of the Tasmanian senators?
They really are well placed to get 6+ seats at the next election with (1) slight modifications to their message and (2) a coalition swing.
As for Watson-Brown losing, it seems very ambiguous, and there just seems to be a lot of speculation surrounding where the preferences will flow etc. I’d give her a 70% chance of holding on, but the preference count still hasn’t been completed so it could really go either way.
Lnp leadership generally favours someone in the lower house. How bandt got it.
Which 6? I can see them winning wills melbourne maybe cooper. Possibly macnamara but i think burns will hold on now given the jewosh issue will have gone away. Once caufield is gone it will be a lab v grn battle that labor should win on lib preferences. Maybe Fraser
I can’t see Labor losing Cooper until Ged Kearney retires. She ideologically aligns well with the electorate and has successfully staved off the Greens contest, especially after they almost got the seat when Feeney held it.
However, the Greens definitely will make a concerted effort to take Wills in 2028, and obviously retake their bastion in Melbourne. However, considering that the Liberals learnt that their preferences can elect Greens (as seen through Adam Bandt getting elected in 2010), it’ll be more difficult.
I can see them coming back with their previous 4 and picking up Macnamara and Wills with Richmond a possibility. But that wouldn’t be the most likely scenario, just a possibility.
I made a very sizeable bet at 251 : 1 that The Greens would end up with 0 lower house seats, so I’ve been dysfunctional all day, jumping between Melbourne and Ryan on the AEC site. Very nervous to get some updates!
Good luck to you jim can u define sizebale
@Darth Vader
$200 at 251… paying out $50k. I’m sure you can see why I’m so nervous about these two seats. Odds are against me, but that won’t stop me from refreshing the AEC page every 5 seconds.
If Bandt loses his seat, leadership is going back to the Senate. Ben and William Bowe made the good point on the podcast that the Greens have struggled to turn seats into safe seats that they can hold for long periods of time.
They were always going to be on the defensive in these seats from dayb1.
Melbourne might have been this once upon a time but no longer with the redistribution and strong Labor vote.
Good luck Jim. I personally have bets on the Greens winning here. I’m happy with my logic, as the LNP were considered the main challengers and I thought they never stood a chance, and I didn’t hedge with Labor because the 3CP gap looked too big to bridge unlike Brisbane. This is looking a lot closer than expected but I think that’s just a reflection of a Labor win that no one saw coming.
I’ve had a good election payday overall so this would only be icing to the cake. In particular I placed a lot of bets on Sturt, which had >4 odds for a Labor win at the start, dropped to around 3 in the middle and then 2 in the last couple of days. I’m quite happy with identifying this from very early on.
Best of luck @Jim F
I voted Greens in Ryan but honestly the greens deserved a thumping after being obstructionist. Bandt losing his seat and the leadership would be a good thing.
Thanks everyone. It was never something that I thought would happen, but it was a clear statistical misalignment, and the odds were reduced within an hour, so I’m glad I found the opportunity.
@Adda
Yes there’s no doubt Greens in Ryan was a reasonable bet. I never expected to get this close to the bet landing, and besides, I had done hours of analysis in Melbourne and after concluding Bandt was at risk, I got all cocky assuming too much of a uniform result and didn’t consider the possibility of holdouts. The >1% gap in Ryan is killing me.
@The Banana Republic
Never forgiving you if it comes down to one vote.
Watson-Brown is not going to be Greens leader.
Bandt was leader because he was a prominent MP of long standing with a great deal of party support, not because he was in the House. The party elected two new leaders during Bandt’s tenure who were not him even though he was the only House member.
In fact I’d argue that having a leader in the House is an exception and while it may have been an expression of optimism about winning more houses, the vast majority of members are Senators.
My understanding is that if there is a vacancy for the leadership it will be Faruqi vs Hanson-Young.
@Ben
Agreed, especially considering Watson-Brown would be liable to losing her seat at the next election, which would be an utter embarrassment if she’s leader, assuming Bandt loses his seat this time around too.