Bass – Tasmania 2025

The only real contest at this point I believe is between JLN and ex JLN.
If the ALP and Grn gain a fair bit with a Lib drop, a 3rd ALP is a remote chance.

Didnt jacqui say they werent running candidates in the next election?

Bridget archer could run here

Unless the old boys of the Tassie Libs are against the idea, you’d have to think a call to Bridget Archer would go a very long way for them keeping at least 3 seats here – or even challenging for the JLN seat against Labor / an indie.

(I can’t imagine many indies will get their campaigns together in time unless it’s an MLC taking a huge punt)

Bridget Archer should definitely run and I think she will.

Also, if anyone’s wondering, here’s a map of Launceston using booths, shaded by the percentage gap between the winner and second place (e.g Launceston Central was 32.2% Liberal and 27.5% Labor so the gap was 4.7%): https://jmp.sh/wkJgUYMj

I’m unfamiliar with TAS elections, but if Bridget Archer does run and wins a seat, which scenario would be the likeliest result for Bass?

1. Win it off the ex-JLN member (LIB 4, ALP 2, 1 GRN)
2. Win a seat, but LIB lose 1 seat to ALP (LIB 3, ALP 3, 1 GRN)
3. Another scenario not listed here

@Lurking Westie depends on the votes. She would probably take Rebekah Pentland’s seat.

If you judge by the Federal results and an expected anti-Liberal, most likely scenario 2. But there is a long way to go until the election.

There it is. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/jun/08/former-federal-liberal-mp-bridget-archer-recruited-by-rockliff-for-snap-tasmania-poll

Bridget Archer is confirmed to be running for Bass in the upcoming state election.

I am confident that she will be elected and probably will get the most votes.

Great pick too, local profile and similar moderate ideology to Jeremy Rockliff himself.

Could be future leadership potential too as she has plenty of experience now

Fro Josh’s Guardian link:
“Archer will stand in Bass – the same area she represented in federal parliament – attempting to win one of seven seats in the electorate, under Tasmania’s multi-member Hare-Clark system.”
7 member electorates were replaced by 5 member electorates years ago, but the news still hasn[‘t reached Guardian Australia.
On Bridget Archer, she was a dud who spent 6 years as MHR for Bass and never got around to learning the Standing Orders. She did grandstand by crossing the floor a few times. Bass voters worked her out, the Seat fell early and the Member for Braddon who retired over her preselection was vindicated.

Is it possible due to the no confidence that Rockliff will be replaced after this election?
If so is Archer or Abetz more likely?

The more I think about it, the more Labor might have boofed this. Going into this election with 1 incumbent in Bass and by far their biggest vote getter in O’Byrne retiring. Same in Lyons with Rebecca White retiring and only 2 lower profile incumbents recontesting. Only 2 incumbents in Franklin and Clark, too, though at least there they have crossbenchers who theoretically would support Labor (though Labor rejects them at every turn) and in Franklin they might get a leader’s bonus.

Where does Labor think it’s getting the extra seats to govern?

@david Rockliff is seeking a new mandate and if he has enough numbers to govern likely has the support of the new house. the lambie mps will probably be booted

Best wishes to Michelle O’Byrne. She’s had a long and fruitful career across federal and state parliament. I feel the role as Speaker was rewarding but especially last Thursday she was clearly quite emotional and it certainly took a toll on her.

If an election is called, I’d expect Janie Finlay will probably come first on primaries for Labor unless they have a star candidate in the waiting. I also agree Bridget Archer could poll quite well considering her profile and popularity. There’s a chance she might poll first of all candidates as Michael Ferguson is lower-profile now but he is a known entity.

Gympie, you could try reading the guide you are commenting under. Tasmania reverted to 7-member electorates in 2024.

David I’d say it’s highly unlikely Archer becomes premier immediately, she hasn’t been in state parliament long enough. Although I agree with others Rockliff’s likely to stay on. Josh I agree, as I’ve said elsewhere I really don’t get the strategy behind the decision from Labor here.

It’s moments like these that I’m grateful for no edit button.

Unless it’s all a grand Labor plan to Ginninderra themselves into office in every seat.

Don’t get the reference sorry, could you explain?

Sorry C of C – was referring to Ben and Gympie.

Yeah Real Talk I got that, was referring to Josh saying Labor’s gonna ‘Ginninderra’ themselves.

I can’t see the comment what happened?

Sorry, that was me being very niche. I used to live in the Hare-Clark paradise of the ACT, and it’s happened a few times there now that Labor has perfectly or almost perfectly distributed their votes between candidates to win 3 seats off quite a bit less than 3 quotas.

The first time it happened was in the electorate of Ginninderra, and Kevin Bonham has called it the Ginninderra effect since: https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2012/10/getting-gininderraed-another-for-hare.html?m=1

Labor could end up benefitting off having more low profile candidates in Bass and Lyons to keep them all in the running longer – or they could really miss O’Byrne and White and their personal votes.

Agree somewhat Josh, Lyons could be a good seat to get 3 low profile Labor MPs elected since it is diverse and all ALP candidates can focus on a unique local area to get votes. In fact, the previous election showed that trend because excluding Rebecca White, all the other candidates had their own pockets of support across the district.

Ah ok thanks. Could be a strategy I suppose, even with lots of 3s, doubt they could govern without the Greens.

Labor will easily get 15 seats and govern with 5 seats from the greens or with 3 independents @clarinet of communist yousuck

Tuba of Patriots I think you’re conflating the federal results with the state ones. There’s no reason to believe Labor will make such big gains, assuming they will win an extra seat in every electorate seems unfounded. Given they’ve said they won’t work with the Greens under any circumstances, they’d have to work with Garland, Johnston and O’Byrne even if they do, and this seems like it would be just as precarious as the current Liberal government, in particular over environmental concerns from Garland.

There is also seemingly no love lost between Dean Winter and David O’Byrne so that option for support might be ruled out.

I don’t think Labor will win the election. Voters will be sick of voting and they’ll know it’s Labor’s fault.

the other thing is the new boundaries will benefit the colaiotn in lyons and will probly hepl ind/greens after the redistribution

@tuba if labor wanted to govern with rhe greens they would have done so in this parliament. labor and the greens hate each other in tasmania and they wont be forming a govt together. winter onrecently refused confidence from the greens and is probly banking on the fact they wil win enough seats to govern with the inds. O’Byrne and labor seem to have it in for each other too.

The best the libs can hope for is that labor cannot govern without the greens and that the inds would be forced to side with them because of that grudge.

Rockliff is still the more popular choice for premier.

the fact that lambie wont be running candidates will probably benfit the liberals i wouldnt be surprised if the liberals recruit Pentland and Beswick.

while Johnston will easily be reelected in Clark. Garland being elected number 7 in Bass and Jenner on a Lambie ticket in 6th would struggle. Garlands seat could easily go to the Greens. in Lyons Jenner would need to rely on the lambie

i dont imagine the libs will lose any seats especially given that most of the lambie vote in bass and braddon shoud shift back to them. im gonna say based off the current parliament id say

11 Labor
5-6 Greens
14 Liberal
O’Byrne
Johnston
2-3 seats up in the air.

given the loss of rebecca whites personal vote. its likely that the last seat in lyons could revert to the libs or more likely Jenner or a minor party/ind

Labor is likely trying to get a more favourable parliament where they govern without the greens and with a couple inds. Labor will never be able to govern without the greens. the tasmanian lower house works the same as most states upper house. and given the state of politics they cna never dp that without the greens barring some extreme elcetoral aberation.

theres also the chance this could backfire on Labor forcing people back to the polls

I doubt that any other minors will be able to get Jenner’s seat, I’d suspect it’s either his or the libs.

Election confirmation Ed for July 19

Likely out 3 Lib 2 lab 1grn 1 oth

Liberal Ticket here:
– Michael Ferguson
– Rob Fairs
– Simon Wood
– Bridget Archer
– Chris Gatenby
– Sarah Quaile
– Julie Sladden

Thinking Ferguson, Fairs, Archer should be a lock for winning seats. I feel Labor could gain Rebekah Pentland’s seat but obviously too early to call.

Agreed James. Id say pentland would be a lock as she will get Labor preferences being an ind but don’t see her preferences going to Labor she will likely preference the libs 4th candidate last time lab finished 4th last to be eliminated. Either pentland gets rejected on lib preferences or labor preferences in my opinion

Some people here seem to be incredibly optimistic on the Liberals for no apparent reason. It’s almost certain that the Liberals will be losing seats in the current parliament. They’ve had a chaotic year of governing and are coming off their worst Federal performance in decades, which likely relates to the current state government.

Add a but people have already punished the federal liberals for that they’ve got that out of their system. Noone punished federal Labor for qld state labors problems or vic laborsproblems. There’s no way to know until polling day. Albo was heading for minority govt or defeat and then the tables turned qld lnp was heading for a landslide and then muted their swing. It will come down the campaign. DEAn winter had a plan to wreck the joint but what’s his plan for governing tasmania? He could have easily formed govt with the greens and the crossbench but instead he’s thinking he the best thing to happen to tasmania since sliced bread

Your narratives don’t align with the actual facts John. For one thing, Victoria’s swing clearly underperformed the national swing and that’s almost certainly because the state government was a negative influence. A few months ago for WA I remember you claiming Federal and state performance were linked so I don’t know why you have a different stance now. In QLD Labor had lost office 8 months beforehand so there’s no such backlash against a state government to be had. And Labor’s polling improved over the campaign but they were not heading for minority government or defeat a month away from the election, that’s just an exaggeration. The polling had been indicating a win for them since late February and then that polling turned out to actually be underrating them by 2-3 points, so most likely there was never a time the Liberals truly led.

Obviously the campaign will be important and things can change quickly but we have just had an election with a 9% 2PP swing in Tasmania, the biggest of all the states. It is clear the Liberals go in as heavy underdogs and they almost certainly are losing seats. The government didn’t strike gold in the last year and they are going to be hard-pressed to find any winning narrative. Blaming the opposition for an election won’t cut it if the public are ready to toss them out.

9% is probably underrating the swing actually because I don’t think that properly accounts for Clark/Franklin in the 2PP. It’s 15% in Braddon, 9% in Bass and 10% in Lyons.

With Archer coming in, any guesses on how well she will do?
Where will she come in the ticket? Will she hurt the Libs in Bass?

@David not sure why she’d hurt them?

I’d say she’ll be easily elected.

@Nether Portal June 14, 2025 at 11:24 am
I think this could be similar situation to Rebecca White in Lyons as described by Kevin Bonham. A popular candidate who gains most of the votes but risks decreasing the party’s chances of picking up seats within the electorate because the votes are not spread out/distributed across the rest of the party’s (lesser known) candidates. There could also be a scenario where the surplus votes for Bridget Archer could be subject to a leakage and other parties/independents gain them rather than the Liberals.

https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2024/11/rebecca-white-and-anne-urquhart-to-run.html

@Lurking Westie except unlike in White’s case the Liberals will probably get the most votes so there will be preferences that flow to other members hence probably at least three Liberals will be elected.

The Liberals suffered an 11% federal swing and got outpolled on the primary vote by over 8% by Labor. They can easily receive a similar backlash here.

@Adda federal and state politics are very different.

@David she will probably be 3rd on the ticket.