The Australian Electoral Commission conducts a two-party-preferred vote in every seat, which is a count between Labor and the leading Liberal or Nationals candidate. In seats where the two-candidate-preferred vote is not Labor vs Coalition, they do the count later. With 35 seats now “non-classic”, the AEC needs to conduct those notional 2PP counts in more and more seats.
This means that it is possible to calculate the national 2PP. It also means that it is easier to make comparisons over time that cover the whole country. 2CP counts vary from seat to seat so can’t easily be compared, and 2CP pairings often change in a seat. Not so for 2PP.
The national 2PP count has been stalled for some time now, with 149 seats finished their count. But the Bradfield count has barely started. I asked the AEC about this, and it appears that the count remains on hold while they wait to find out if there will be a court case. So it is possible it could be quite some time before Bradfield’s 2PP is determined. So for this post, I wanted to look at the data to come up with some estimates of the likely 2PP, and come up with a number I can use for some other analysis I’d like to do.
The first thing worth noting is that there is very clearly a relationship between the 2PP and the 2CP in these sorts of seats. For this analysis, I’m going to look at data from the urban seats where teals have beaten Liberals in 2022 or 2025: Bradfield, Curtin, Goldstein, Kooyong, North Sydney, Mackellar, Warringah and Wentworth.
This chart shows every polling place in these seats in 2022 and 2025, excluding Bradfield 2025. While there is a high correlation (about 0.85), the independent 2CP is usually higher than the Labor 2PP. The black diagonal line shows the point where the two are identical. Very few booths have a higher 2PP. But that gap is not always the same.
This next chart compares the 2CP and 2PP in each contest.
Warringah, Mackellar and Wentworth had a 2CP 10-12% higher than the Labor 2PP in 2022. On the other hand, the gap was just 2.3% in Bradfield in 2022, 4.2% in North Sydney in 2022, and gaps of 3-4% in Goldstein and Kooyong in 2025.
This could imply a Labor 2PP of 40%, or a 2PP of 47-48%. So what is more likely? And what explains the differences.
I think a big part of the story is the make-up of that 2CP and 2PP. Votes cast for the independent will all flow to the independent in the 2CP, but some of them won’t flow to Labor on the 2PP. Conversely, votes for Labor will partially leak on the 2CP, but not on the 2PP.
This does seem to be part of the story. Bradfield and North Sydney have tended to have higher Labor primary votes compared to other teal seats, and lower primary votes for the teal independents.
So I wanted to come up with a metric to measure this dynamic, and how it might relate to the difference between 2PP and 2CP. I came up with two that seem to both work: the ratio of teal to Labor primary votes, and the proportion of the teal 2CP that started as a teal primary vote. I’ve gone with the second one but they seem to produce similar results.
If you plot out the independent primary share of the 2CP, and compare it to the 2CP-2PP gap, there seems to be a strong relationship. Such a chart implies that Bradfield in 2025 would have a gap of about 4.8%.
The other measure worth considering is the proportion of preferences that flow to the ALP on the 2PP.
In all of these contests, Labor has never polled less than 65% of the 2PP preference flows, and have gotten as high as 79.4% in Kooyong this year.
If the Labor 2PP was to be 45.2% as the previous chart suggested, that would be a Labor preference flow of 59.8%, well below other seats.
If Labor gained a 65% preference flow, that would give them a 2PP of 47.4%. A 70% preference flow would give them 49.5%, almost as good as the independent 2CP.
So I think we should go somewhere between these numbers:
- Judging by the independent primary vote share of the 2CP – 45.2%
- Judging by 65% Labor 2PP preference flow – 47.4%.
So I’m going to go with a figure of 46.3%. I don’t have a great deal of certainty on this – it’s entirely possible the number will be even higher, but this will do.
This would bring Labor’s national 2PP down from the current AEC figure of 55.28% to 55.23%. This is consistent with the ABC projection of 55.2%.
It would also mean that Bradfield would have a swing to Labor of 2.43%, compared to 4.2% in Mackellar and 5.3% in Warringah. So perhaps that is a sign that I’ve estimated the Labor 2PP a bit low, but I’ll stick with it.
It may be a few days before I get around to continuing this analysis – I will be travelling to Canberra tonight for a conference on the federal election book tomorrow, and at some point I’d like to do a podcast about Tasmania – but I will be coming back to this topic to look at how 2PP in each seat has shifted over the last two decades.
Ben
Good research. I particularly liked the chart of ALP 2PP over Teal 2CP.
The conclusion I came to after 2022 is that Labor will win some of these Teal seats in future, unless and until the Liberal Party regains some measure of support from professional women, which has been in long term decline for years, in particular since the demise of Malcolm Turnbull.
I had 47.4 for my purposes, by the way.
My highly confident guess is that the notional TPP in Bradfield will have the Liberals ahead especially given they barely lost it.
The Labor 2PP swings in the teal seats outside VIC are greater than the national 2PP swing. There were swings in Kooyong and Goldstein to a lesser extent. Labor got primary vote swings in all electorates (if you ignore booths that moved out of non-teal seats during the redistribution). The stronger preference flows to Labor was likely a function of a repudiation of Dutton and also not having a sitting Liberal MP who possibly had a personal vote (like they might’ve in 2022).
The low ALP 2PP in Mackeller is reflective of the low pre-existing Labor vote and that Labor wasn’t winning booths there before the teal wave of 2022. Kooyong is probably the most left-wing of the bunch. There was a growing Greens primary vote previously. The Greens made the 2CP in 2019 (thanks to a high-profile candidate as well as independent candidate Oliver Yates).
@John Black, Labor won’t win them. The teals will just stick around or moderate Liberals will win them back.
@ Votante
I think Wentworth is the most left wing Teal seat because it is most densley populated followed by Kooyong. Mackellar and Curtin the most rightwing for different reason. Mackellar has it least dense while Curtin in WA and the minin industry is powerful. Warringah is showing as left wing recently but i think that is not demographic but rather a due to brand damage of Abbott/Deves. i think in normal cricumstances Warringah would be more right wing almost like Goldstein
In Bradfield, the minor right-wing primary vote (Libertarian, One Nation, Trumpet of Patriots) fell. The HTV card of Andy Yin (who got 4.1%) recommended Labor second and Boele before Liberal.
meaning less at high watermark labor victories. labor will never win these seats in the same way liberals will never win grayndler or wills
@ John
I think it is still possible though very unlikely that Kooyong/Wentworth maybe won narrowly be Labor/Greens. I would not compare them to Grayndler or Wills they are Ultra Left seats both socially and economically. I would compare them to a reverse Gorton, Chifley, Spence etc (Economically Left, Socially more Centre). The opposite of Grayndler, Wills will be Maranoa, Groom, Barkly, Gippsland etc (Ultra Right both socially and economiclaly)
fair point. with the exception of wentworth i cant see any of the others being won on current boundaries. so you get what i mean. id expect the libs will throw everything at mackellar curtin kooyong and bradfield in 2028.theres rumors that frydenburg may be making a comeback in kooyong i hear
There’s some commenters here who are smart but could do with some humility. There are trends underway in these seats that haven’t reached their conclusion. I think it’s entirely possible they may some day be seats that can elect a Labor member. It’s not so much about the raw 2PP, but their rankings relative to the rest of the country will have moved a hell of a long way since 2016. Indeed that’s the topic of one of my next blog posts (and one of the reasons I wanted to get this done).
@ John
Wentworth if the most left wing because it has more density. I still think Warringah demographically is more right wing than Wentworth. The Old Higgins was able to won by Labor because it had middle class suburban areas like Murrumbeena, Carnegie plus inner city progressive Windsor and Prahran. If there is an expansion of parliament then Wentworth will become unwinnable again for Labor/Greens. I still dont think it is worth the effort for Labor to win Wentworth they dont want to get wedged between Bellvue Hill and Rooty Hill or Rose Bay and Rosemeadow.
@Nimalan, fair point. The old Kooyong (entirely north of Citylink) was more left-wing before it took in Toorak.
The Labor and Greens vote in Wentworth was suppressed for a long time thanks to Malcolm Turnbull’s personal vote and then Kerryn Phelps. The redistribution expanded to include booths that went strongly for Tanya Plibersek and Matt Thistlethwaite at previous elections. The voice referendum results showed a larger yes vote in Wentworth than in any of the other teal seats.
@nimalan which i why i told dave sharma that spender beating him may not have been a bad thing in the short term at very least she keeps it off labor
@ Votante
You are correct. Wentworth had a supressed Labor/Greens vote especially between 2010 until Turnbull left. On 20222 boundaries Wentworth had the highest Yes vote for the Voice. Higgins (demographically Tealish) had the second highest. North Sydney and Kooyong on 2022 boundaries were also more left wing for a Teal seat. Mackellar almost voted No to voice which is not suprising due to very low density.
@ John
Agree in the short term it will be good for Spender to hold on to Wentworth until expansion of parliament. Just like Sharkie holding Mayo is probably good at the moment for Libs until Libs are in a better position. Maybe having Zali Steggell in short term will be good as well until Libs in a better position.
So I just found a few minutes while packing for a trip to calculate the changes in 2PP rankings since 2004.
Ironically 2004 looked a bit more like today than 2007 – Labor did better in the teal seats that year – so the change is not as dramatic as 2007-2022 looked like. Wentworth for example was Labor’s 70th best seat in 2004, but then ended up ranked 132-133 from 2010-16, 90 in 2019-22, and now ranked #99.
Bradfield was ranked in the top 10 Coalition seats from 2004-2019, then was 112th for Labor in 2022 and my best estimate of 2PP for 2025 has exactly the same ranking. I suspect it might be a bit better for Labor.
Mackellar has improved to Labor’s 111th best seat in 2025, from 143rd in 2013.
@nimalan sa is due for redistribution soon and mayo is over quota and it will probably loose some of its better lib voting areas te adelaide hills or the labor parts of mitcham. either tha or depending on the number i might look to redisgn the seats altogether. either way i think mayo is gonna tip over to one side or the other.
@Ben, in 2004, Wentworth had an independent who split the votes when Turnbull was a new candidate. The independent was a Liberal MP but lost preselection.
Labor sandbagged their seats in 2025 or scored big swings in various target seats e.g. Dickson, Leichhardt, Braddon, Bass. The momentum shift away from the Liberals benefitted Labor than the teals. Labor ran a better and more sophisticated anti-Dutton campaign than the winning teals did.
@Nimalan @John @Votante, not sure how one would define the most leftist teal seat as none would’ve likely ever been won by Labor.
However it’s safe to say that Wentworth includes both the most and least conservative parts of a teal seat: Vaucluse and surrounds for the former and Bondi Beach, Coogee and surrounds for the latter. Vaucluse and the surrounding suburbs (e.g Watsons Bay) are very affluent, some of the most elite suburbs in Australia. The median income for the state seat of Vaucluse (a state Liberal seat) is $3,045 a month.
However while the northern parts of Wentworth are conservative (when Turnbull was the member for Wentworth I think Vaucluse once voted 88% Liberal on TPP), the southern and far western parts are less so and even Turnbull only won them with 52-58% TPP when he was in Parliament despite getting the most votes there and Kellie Sloane either barely won or narrowly lost those booths in 2023 (same goes for Gabrielle Upton in 2019 though she did better due to the absence of a teal so it was Liberal vs Greens).
Bondi Beach and Bondi itself are quite progressive as is Coogee, but North Bondi and Bondi Junction are usually still Liberal. Maybe the large celebrity population in Bondi Beach influences this.
@ Nether Portal
i would look at some factors
1. Highest support for Voice
2. % of homes rented
3. Population density
3. Highest Support for SSM
4. Historical TPP maybe going back to 2004 when Turnbull ran for first time
5. % of Homes that are detached
6. Median Age
Maybe if these factors are weighted we can get a result
Bondi Beach has higher density than North Bondi which is more Single Family Hones. North Bondi is interestingly about 20% Jewish while Dover Heights is 50% Jewish. Agre Vauclause etc are probably the strongest Urban areas for the Libs even today. It is only rural booths and semi-rural booths that are potentially stronger
@Nether Portal as a rule of thumb – people who like to live in beachside locations tend to also have a higher tendency to have an interest in non-economic matters in politics such as the environment (since they would actually spend time in it) and to some extent social justice (since they are more likely to spend time in public spaces). These suburbs also tend to be higher density e.g. the average block for a house in Bondi might be around 300sqm while Vaucluse might be closer to 1000sqm
@Nimalan, sure (though SSM isn’t necessarily a left-wing policy):
Highest Yes vote:
* Same-sex marriage: Wentworth (80.9%)
* Voice: Wentworth (62.6%)
Lowest Yes vote:
* Same-sex marriage: Mackellar (68.0%)
* Voice: Mackellar (50.8%)
Other stats:
* Female population (highest): North Sydney (52.9%)
* Female population (lowest): Mackellar (51.1%)
* Median age (highest): Goldstein and Mackellar (both 43)
* Median age (lowest): North Sydney (38)
* Renting population (highest): North Sydney (51.9%)
* Renting population (lowest): Mackellar (22.6%)
Historical (notional) Liberal TPP (2004-2025; excluding by-elections):
* Bradfield: 68.5% (2004), 63.5% (2007), 68.2% (2010), 70.8% (2013), 71.0% (2016), 66.6% (2019), 56.6% (2022)
* Curtin: 64.6% (2004), 63.6% (2007), 66.2% (2010), 67.4% (2013), 70.7% (2016), 64.3% (2019), 55.6% (2022), 52.2% (2025)
* Goldstein: 60.0% (2004), 56.1% (2007), 56.5% (2010), 61.0% (2013), 62.7% (2016), 57.8% (2019), 54.8% (2022), 54.0% (2025)
* Kooyong: 59.6% (2004), 59.5% (2007), 57.6% (2010), 61.1% (2013), 63.3% (2016), 56.7% (2019), 54.2% (2022), 52.4% (2025)
* Mackellar: 65.8% (2004), 62.4% (2007), 65.4% (2010), 68.8% (2013), 65.7% (2016), 63.2% (2019), 58.6% (2022), 53.7% (2025)
* North Sydney: 60.0% (2004), 55.4% (2007), 64.1% (2010), 65.9% (2013), 63.6% (2016), 59.3% (2019), 51.3% (2022)
* Warringah: 60.5% (2004), 59.5% (2007), 63.1% (2010), 65.4% (2013), 61.1% (2016), 52.1% (2019), 51.4% (2022), 45.5% (2025)
* Wentworth: 55.5% (2004), 53.9% (2007), 64.9% (2010), 67.7% (2013), 67.8% (2016), 59.9% (2019), 55.9% (2022), 49.4% (2025)
So in every single teal seat, barring redistributions, the Liberal TPP peaked in either 2013 or 2016 and dipped to all time lows in 2025 (even in Goldstein despite the Liberals gaining it back and Kooyong where they almost did; I guess the teal voters became more likely to preference Labor).
@ nether portal
Great analysis maybe add Higgins and Ryan as they are demographically Teal
Also look at detached housing
A reason for the boost in the Labor 2PP is the effect of the rising tide. Labor reached a high watermark and got their best nationwide 2PP since 1943.
Generally speaking, teal MPs (at least the ones from Sydney) are right-wing economically and pro-business and favour lower taxation. Their electorates more broadly are centre to centre-right economically.
The Liberals are historically seen as the party of lower taxation. This election, the Liberals fumbled on this. Liberals like James Patterson and George Brandis conceded that they got it wrong by opposing Labor’s tax cuts and allowing Labor to win the economic argument. Taylor even admitted he would deliver bigger deficits, at least in the short term. In teal electorates, the number of public transport and EV users and WFH people is higher than average and so a fuel excise cut wasn’t going to win them over. The loss of the economic argument in economically right-leaning electorates made voters swing to Labor.
@votante
I think this time biggest swings actually occurred in Middle ring suburbs such Aston Bonner Parramatta Moreton Tangney Oxley and Lilley not the Ultra rich Teal seats
The libs s made the same mistake Labor made in 2019 they disclosed an unpopular agenda and asked people to just take their medicine
@Nimalan, the biggest swings happened in regional seats that they were targeting e.g. Braddon, Bass, Leichhardt as well as Lyons. The state capital city CBD seats had big swings to Labor as did Sturt.
https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseTppByStateByDemographic-31496.htm
The Liberals have no one to blame but themselves for the loss of Bradfield. The seat was already on the knife’s edge in 2022 with an incumbent candidate, and as an open seat, it was ripe to flip. Redistribution and the poor Liberal campaign nationwide did not help, but the fact that Kapterian lost 6% of the primary vote while Boele gained 10 % suggests that it came straight from the Liberals. The Labor primary vote hardly moved, looking like it benefited from some leakage from the Greens. That said, it tells me two things: 1) The Liberal party has a serious problem in urban areas, and it is only going to get worse as time goes on; 2) Labor probably won’t win many of these seats on their own. Labor, of course, will take it because a crossbench is always going to be better than a Coalition seat. The two things I am watching out for going forward are these: 1) What the Liberals do to make up this ground; 2) It may take 2-3 cycles, but the day will come when Labor loses their majority and we end up with a hung parliament. A hung parliament is probably a lot more likely than a straight Liberal majority anytime soon. We could very well end up in a situation where it is 68 Labor, 54 Liberal, and 28 Crossbench. Then things get interesting… That could be the new norm for a while. The Liberals did help themselves by nominating Kapterian, the moderate of the two, at preselection. Had they nominated the other person, this seat might not have gone into overtime.
The crossbench will never be that big not with the current size of parliament and certainly not at the sole expense of the libs. A more accurate prediction would be 68 labor 62 lib 20 crossbemchers.thats what I’m predicting for 2028
Kapterian hasn’t lost yet.
I can envision a scenario where the Nationals sit on the crossbench, and I am not talking about just for a week or so. The Liberals need to figure out how to secure 60 seats on their own, and it won’t be simply by waiting for Labor to fail. A natural pendulum swing might get them halfway there, but they will need a new offer to get them the rest. An offer that the Nats will find challenging to accept. So if the Liberals can get in range, the Nats would offer C&S to get them over the top. People assume that when Labor inevitably begins to decline, the Liberals would benefit on a one-to-one basis, as it has primarily been the case between the two parties for 100 years. I don’t see that, maybe 75-80% in seats where the 2PP is still historically high. That still leaves you with 8-10-12 seats that could be all over the place in terms of preferences. I am speaking from the perspective of an “elder millennial,” and I look around and see a lot of people in their 30s and 40s who see the Liberals arguing over Boomer problems, and I don’t mean the basketball team. And of course, in 2028, we will still be dealing with Trump, and the US will be in the midst of a Presidential election, and who knows how that will overshadow everything.
Darth Vader, you seem confused. Kapterian has lost. Boele was formally declared the winner on 6 June.
Add a yes but until any legal challenges are exhausted not used it isn’t over.
The nats sitting on the crossbench disadvantages them because it means they can’t use their members as monsters and get less time in question time
By that logic, any seat is in doubt until “legal challenges are exhausted”. What’s relevant is whether a legal case exists. But even under the remote possibility that the Liberals have a case that can overturn a margin of 26 (the answer is very unlikely to be yes) Boele will still be seated and will still be an MP during this hypothetical court case. She is already the declared winner who will take her seat in the house when it resumes.
The claim Kooyong is the “most left-wing” teal seat is ridiculous. The teal suffered a swing and barely held on in contrast to Warringah, Mackellar, Bradfield, Wentworth and Curtin where teals increased their vote shares. Labor won the 2PP vote in Warringah and Wentworth but the Coalition with Dutton as leader won in Kooyong. Kooyong is not left-wing. I could see Labor eventually winning some of the teal seats, particularly Warringah.
@ Jarrod
Popularity of The Teal candidiate, state factors and local issues may have played a role. Do you see Warringah as demographically trending Labor or is it more candidate factors?
they would be crazy not to contest it in court because only a handful of votes being informal/formal being wrong would flip the result fran bailey retain mcewen back in 2007 by doing this
There was a photo finish in Goldstein which the libs won… 53/47 2pp
Suggest the 2pp here be slightly better.
52/48?