ALP 0.6%
Incumbent MP
John Kennedy, since 2018.
Geography
Eastern Melbourne. Hawthorn covers central parts of the Boroondara local government area, and specifically the suburbs of Hartwell and Hawthorn and parts of the suburbs of Burwood, Camberwell, Canterbury and Surrey Hills.
Redistribution
Hawthorn shifted to the east, taking in part of Surrey Hills from Burwood and Box Hill, and losing the remainder of Glen Iris to Ashwood. These changes slightly increased the Labor margin from 0.4% to 0.6%.
History
Hawthorn has existed as an electoral district continuously since 1889. In that time, it has been dominated by conservative MPs, and had only been won by the ALP at one election prior to the Labor win in 2018.
The seat was won in 1902 by George Swinburne. He ended up serving as a member of the Commonwealth Liberal Party before his retirement in 1913.
He was succeeded by William Murray McPherson. McPherson served as Treasurer in the Nationalist state government from 1917 to 1923, and as Premier from 1928 to 1929. McPherson resigned from Parliament in 1930.
He was succeeded by Nationalist candidate John Gray at the 1930 by-election. Gray served as Member for Hawthorn until his death in 1939.
His seat was won at the 1939 by-election by the United Australia Party’s Leslie Tyack. He lost the seat at the 1940 state election to independent candidate Leslie Hollins, who had links to the Social Credit movement.
Hollins held Hawthorn for two terms, losing in 1945 to the Liberal Party’s Frederick Edmunds. He also held the seat for two terms, until in 1950 the Liberal Party replaced him with his predecessor Leslie Tyack.
Tyack was defeated in 1952 by the ALP’s Charles Murphy, the only ALP member to ever win Hawthorn. He left the ALP in the split of 1955, and lost his seat at that year’s election to the Liberal Party’s James Manson.
After one term, Manson moved to the new seat of Ringwood in 1958, and was replaced in Hawthorn by Peter Garrisson. He was re-elected in 1961, but in 1963 he resigned from the Liberal Party, and lost his seat as an independent in 1964.
Walter Jona was elected as Liberal Member for Hawthorn in 1964. He served as a minister in the Liberal government from 1976 to 1982, and retired in 1985.
Hawthorn was won in 1985 by the Liberal Party’s Phillip Gude, who had previously held the seat of Geelong East for one term from 1976 to his defeat in 1979. He served as a minister in the Kennett government from 1992 until his retirement in 1999.
Since 1999, Hawthorn has been held by Ted Baillieu. Baillieu won re-election in 2002, 2006 and 2010.
Ted Baillieu was elected Liberal leader shortly before the 2006 election, and led the Coalition to defeat in 2006 and victory in 2010.
Baillieu served as Premier from 2010 until March 2013, when he resigned as Premier and Liberal leader under pressure from his party’s MPs. He retired at the 2014 election, and was succeeded by Liberal candidate John Pesutto.
Pesutto held Hawthorn for one term, losing the seat to Labor’s John Kennedy with a big swing in 2018.
- Faith Fuhrer (Animal Justice)
- John Kennedy (Labor)
- Ken Triantafillis (Family First)
- Richard Peppard (Liberal Democrats)
- Melissa Lowe (Independent)
- Nick Savage (Greens)
- John Pesutto (Liberal)
- Stratton Bell (Democratic Labour)
Assessment
Hawthorn has traditionally been considered a safe Liberal seat, but a cumulative swing of 17.1% to Labor since Ted Baillieu’s retirement in 2014 saw them grab the seat. It wouldn’t take much of that vote swinging back to restore the Liberal hold here, but if the Liberal Party doesn’t receive much of a bounce back Labor could hold the seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| John Pesutto | Liberal | 17,231 | 43.9 | -10.6 | 43.9 |
| John Kennedy | Labor | 12,646 | 32.2 | +8.0 | 32.9 |
| Nicholas Bieber | Greens | 7,167 | 18.3 | -3.1 | 17.7 |
| Sophie Paterson | Sustainable Australia | 960 | 2.4 | +2.5 | 2.4 |
| Catherine Wright | Animal Justice | 885 | 2.3 | +2.3 | 2.2 |
| Richard Grummet | Independent | 367 | 0.9 | +0.9 | 0.8 |
| Informal | 1,462 | 3.6 | -0.2 |
2018 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| John Kennedy | Labor | 19,793 | 50.4 | +9.0 | 50.6 |
| John Pesutto | Liberal | 19,463 | 49.6 | -9.0 | 49.4 |
Booths have been divided into three areas: central, east and west.
The Labor Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, with just over 52% in the centre and east and 57% in the west. The Liberal Party narrowly won the pre-poll vote and won the remaining vote more convincingly.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 12.3% in the east to 21.5% in the west.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 17.0 | 52.1 | 9,807 | 22.7 |
| East | 12.3 | 52.2 | 6,135 | 14.2 |
| West | 21.5 | 56.9 | 5,796 | 13.4 |
| Pre-poll | 18.1 | 46.5 | 13,503 | 31.2 |
| Other votes | 19.3 | 49.6 | 8,018 | 18.5 |
Election results in Hawthorn at the 2018 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and the Greens.
The Liberal infighting in Victoria may explain why they didn’t do very well in the state in the federal election
@spacefish
tony Barry said before the Dunkley by election the Victorian liberals is where hope goes to die and they can ruin Taylor Swift career in a month if you have them a chance.
In a hypothetical by-election who would run here: Amelia Hamer or Josh Frydenburg?
State level polling doesn’t indicate that the replacement of Pesutto with Battin had any immediate impact on the Liberal lead in the polls. I think most people are aware that this was an entirely self-inflicted wound by Pesutto which rightly saw him ousted from leadership, rather than a reflection on the party as a whole – if they are even aware of it at all.
It was a real downfall. John Pesutto was preferred premier and ahead on the 2PP in November 2024 according to polls.
Josh Frydenberg going from federal Treasurer to state opposition member, possibly even backbencher, would be a massive downgrade. I think Amelia Hamer would be the frontrunner for Lib preselection if there’s a by-election and she’s up for it simply because of the closeness of the result in Kooyong.
Josh Frydenberg would like going home every night, which is something he doesn’t miss about being in federal politics, and it would free Amelia Hamer to focus on Kooyong.
the question is even if Hawthorn goes to a by-election would Labor even field a candidate?
Would Zoe Daniel or a potential teal be interested?
Looking like John Pesutto will have to resign, there is a chance Labor fields a candidate here as the teals didn’t perform well in Victoria along with the Greens while Labor improved in Eastern Melbourne where the Labor brand seems to be intact.
@SpaceFish Hawthorn is the part of Kooyong where the Teals do quite well actually. On federal results Monique Ryan actually increased her vote here compared to the other parts of the electorate. Surely Amelia Hamer will be frontrunner in contesting his seat if Pesutto goes?
I suspect any teal who runs here needs to have a high profile, like Monique Ryan. Zoe Daniel could run here if she wanted to but she’s probably better off challenging James Newbury or Brad Roswell in Brighton or Sandringham if she wanted to go into state politics.
Labor brand in more intact in Middle Ring/Outer East and i am not sure they will contest they may want Melissa Lowe to run again. I think Labor brand in also intact along Pakenham/Cranbourne rail.
I doubt Labor will contest here. They would want to avoid splitting the Teal vote and state Labor is doing worse than federal Labor. There would be quite a few State Lib Federal Labor voters in this part of Melbourne as Eastern Melbourne is not an area Dutton appeals to. Federal Labor also did a good job distancing themselves from State Labor. State Labor might hold up better in Middle Ring Eastern Melbourne due to the SRL but Hawthorn isn’t one of those areas that would benefit. If there’s a by-election in Rowville or Croydon, that would be a different story.
I personally feel John Pesutto is an asset to the Liberals and that they need to be aware a by-election would be toxic to them. If there is a by-election they would need to pick a strong candidate who runs a heavily-localized campaign and distances themselves from Brad Battin (essentially what Rachel Westaway did). Amelia Hamer had a respectable performance in Kooyong and I think she would be a front-runner for Liberal preselection. The only other hope for the Liberals would also have another by-election on the same day in an outer-suburban seat, hoping that Battin would spend more time there.
But the optimal situation is to really hope that John Pesutto is able to pay the legal costs one way or another, then by-election averted for the time being. He is a credible moderate, hard-working MP, and absolutely an asset to the party as he is really the only person who can hold Hawthorn for the time being.
Agree Dan M
Private school payroll and land tax will make state Labor unpopular they maybe popular in Rowville and Croydon but not Hawthorn
The Liberals would probably lose a by election and it would be all over red rover for 2026 and probably for Brad Battin too. It is obvious that he is out of his depth in this issue. For his own survival he needs to back the bailing out of John Pessutto.
Brad battin has not indicated that he supports bailing out pesutto
peta credlin is opposed to it
The Brad Battin + Sam Groth duo have been remarkably ineffective as a leadership team. They have not been able to cut through effectively despite the constant gifts being thrown their way from the Allan government. The recent scandals from Groth won’t help either. Methinks there could be yet another leadership spill if this seat goes to a by-election and is lost. Perhaps Jess Wilson might see an opportunity. The state Libs seem to be thinking they can just rely on state Labor falling apart without positioning themselves as a credible alternative. The federal Libs made that same mistake and look how it turned out. Once the Labor campaign machine is up and running in the weeks leading up to the election, it’s hard to see why they couldn’t substantially narrow the gap. They’ve done that in Queensland and federally, can’t see why that can’t happen in Victoria.
First Moira deeming has to go. Libs will lose 2026 if she is still in the party