Senate – Queensland – Australia 2025

Predicting one ALP senator for Queensland isn’t analysis: it’s LNP/ONP fan fiction..

Sure, Labor only grabbed the sixth spot last time, but they finished over 100,000 votes clear of seventh and were never a realistic chance of being excluded.

If they were somehow collapsing to one senator, they’d also be losing all five of their federal seats up here.

They didn’t in 2019 and only got one, it’s not that outside the realm of possibility, although I’d agree it’s unlikely.

Not true real talk only about 15000 votes need to switch from lab to LNP

That should read 50,000 given yes they were 100000 ahead if 50000 switch to LNP the LNP finish ahead of them.

And I clearly stated the last spot would be labor v liberal

Interesting that you mentioned those seats as Rennick having strong ground game. I’ve been through a few other seats in the south east, the Rennick ground game is superior to the other minor right parties. He has volunteers on prepoll everywhere from Petrie and Redcliffe to Noosa and Gympie. One Nation, Trumpets and the others are usually missing.

Sign and corflute wise One Nation has a bit, but Rennick is pretty well covered as well.

I agree Labor are getting two. I guess if the Greens vote collapses a bit they could be under threat.

If the Dutton vote keeps collapsing could their second seat be at threat? I am talking a very unlikely outcome, but is it impossible for that to happen? Aka 2 ALP, 1 Green, 1 LNP, 1 One Nation, and Rennick… In that scenario the LNP would be at 1.8 quotas or so and get no preference flows. I can’t quite get to that point….

The other possibility is Rennick knocks off One Nation?

We have yet to see state breakdowns and the swing won’t be univers asl

Rennick snubbing the LNP on his HTVs will also hurt them if he doesn’t get up.

As far as I can see, Rennick has preferenced LNP above Teal, Labor and Green in every Lower House seat he’s contesting. Only just above, but it’s the thought that counts in a preference system.

I doubt there is space for two right wing minors. If Gerrard Rennick wins he’ll take the seat from One Nation, but I’d still favour Roberts to retain. LNP will win at least 2, they could take a third from Labor or the Greens but I doubt it

@Gympie I meant for the senate, he hasn’t included them at all.

@GreenGunzel possibly, I suspect though that they take different voter demographics possibly.

@GreenGunzel Absolutely agree, the split will be 3-3. Gerrard Rennick isn’t Barnaby Joyce, and Peter Dutton isn’t John Howard. This isn’t 2004 redux.

Yeah i think it wil be a 3-3 Left/Right split which means a net gain for Labor.

With most of the minor right parties putting Rennick above ON (even though their HTVs are not followed that much), I reckon he’s still a chance to squeak in over Roberts.

A chance, but the LNP to One Nation (or vice versa) probably becomes too much to overcome. Plus the Trumpets votes I saw scrutineering early Senate count were very pro One Nation. As were some Labor Senate votes, I kept seeing One Nation in preferences in about one in five Labor first preference ballots.

Matt Canavan has suggested the Nationals leave the Coalition

Nimalan, maybe that might be a good strategy in the long run. It could allow the Liberals to be more focussed as a centrist, small ‘l’ Liberal type party similar to modern Labor that has moved away from a strong union and socialist position. That way, the Nationals would become a splinter right wing party in a manner like the Greens who act as the smaller left leaning party that maintains a distinct identity from Labor but still supports them when required (during minority governments and in the Senate).

Best thing Matt Canavan has ever said.

Also, question, where will I eventually be able to see the full distribution of preferences for the Senate? (I’m always keen on tracking how my ballot moved throughout the count!)

@Yoh An but it would make the Nationals less competitive in the rural areas. The idea that people in rural areas support culture wars is silly, this isn’t America, even there I don’t think people really care much about culture wars.

@ Yoh An
I think even if he wants to leave not all National Party members share his view as their are moderate Nationals such as Darren Chester. I personally would prefer Darren Chester led the Coalition than Dutton. Darren Chester also said in 2022 the Nationals should take some of the blame for the loss of Teal seats. The Victorian Nationals are way more moderate than people like Moira Deeming, Renee Heath, Bev Macarthur. I would not be suprised if some rural Liberal MPs in Victoria at a state level defect to the Nationals.

Fair points Nimalan and NP, it is tricky for the Coalition side as there are moderates and conservatives for both parties. Maybe, rather than a split it is more convenient for the two parties to simply merge as in Queensland (forming a single LNP party) that has both moderate and conservative factions, similar to Labor who has ‘left’ and ‘right’ factions.

The only people who ‘support culture wars’ are the fruitloops in the Greens who want men to infiltrate women’s sport, obscure the Aussie flag, topple statutes, etc. Rural people and mainstream suburban people just want a normal life with protections for women’s sport and healthy patriotism. Calling that position and its proponents like Canavan as ‘supporting culture wars’ is very misleading when they are simply trying to resist extreme left wing ideology.

@yoh not really it just makes it harder for them. The nats ard a rural agrarism and regionalism parts whereas as the libs are a semi urban and conservative party. As in qld its hard for polices that the cities want to be the same as those in the regions hence why it makes it hard for both to coexist and appeal to voters from both demographics at the dame with causing internal dicision on things l ijkw climate change and environmental issues. The nats also tend to fare better against tides when it effects the libs. They only became one party in qld due to OPV splitti g the conservative vote and letting labor sneak up the middle. Hence why nats and libs dont contest the same seats in nsw.

Matt Canavan has criticised Jacinta Nampijinpa Price for defecting from the Nationals to the Liberals, comparing it to Lidia Thorpe’s defection from the Greens to an independent.

Canavan wants to split the LNP, it would easily be the 3rd Party if it stood alone, and that would be game over for Barnaby Joyce.

It’s not often I agree with Matt Canavan.

Matt Canavan has announced he will challenge David Littleproud for the leadership of the Nationals.

It comes as Angus Taylor and Sussan Ley announce their intentions to run for Liberal leadership, with Jacinta Nampijinpa Price rumoured to be Taylor’s deputy.

As an LNP member, Nether Portal
Do you support Matt Canavan challenge?

@Nimalan no. I think Littleproud has done a pretty good job and I really don’t understand why the Nationals leader keeps changing when the Coalition lose. The Nationals haven’t lost a single seat besides Calare which was technically already held by Gee as an independent. In fact the last time the Nationals lost a seat in the House was in 2013 when they lost O’Connor in WA to the Liberals but the last time they lost one to Labor was when they lost Dawson, Flynn and Page in 2007 (none of which will be Labor seats again).

@NP as a general rule following an election defeat all positions are spilled. but i agree i think littleproud should be releected as hes done a good job. nothing against canavan though.

@NP 2013 was irrelevant anyway because the WA Nationals run themselves. Tony Crook’s platform in O’Connor had little relation to the Nationals in the east (though he did sit in their party room).

One motivation of Canavan’s run may be to stymie Jacinta Price – two of the coalition leadership team in the senate would be untenable. It is also hard to imagine the McCormacks or Chesters of the world supporting Canavan – in fact hard to see any NSW or Victorian member supporting him (except Barnaby and maybe Bridget MacKenzie). I could see it precipitating a split because , frankly, he is electoral poison outside Central Queensland.

Whilst on the Queensland Senate, I was looking at the current results last night and I can see a definite path for Gerrard Rennick to overtake ON to get the last spot. If HTVs are followed they stand to mop up a lot more preferences from Family First, Trumpets, etc.

@Redistributed correction frankly he’s poison everywhere. Even in Maranoa he’d be unpopular.

I wonder if Littleproud calls it quits if a more moderate National like McCormack, Chester, Conaghan or Hogan would be up for the job.

now that Perin Davey is about to be ousted Conaghan would probably be a good deputy

Why would Littleproud walk away? In the circumstances, he and the Nats have had a damn good election.
On Canavan being electoral poison – one success (possibly only one) of the Coalition campaign was that he and Barnaby could not escape from the soundproof box they were locked in. In 2022, every time they opened their mouths you could see the votes flowing away.

Jacinta Allan and the whole Victorian government could not escape from theirs either.

There’s no evidence whatsoever that Canavan is “electoral poison” – those who use that label merely betray their own left-wing ideological agenda.

Canavan is a young MP with a beautiful family who grew up in Brisbane and moved to the regions – the very model of the decentralisation policies the Nats are meant to promote. He has sound economic credentials, worked in the Productivity Commission, and was previously a Cabinet Minister. He would be the most polished, articulate, and well-educated leader the Nats have had since John Anderson.

But hes against net zero… and loves a good culture war. Dutton 2.0

Coalition split might be best if Canavan becomes leader. Liberals have to support renewable energy if they want to be elected ever again and they cant have the Nats ruining that

if they want to be elected ever again and they cant have the QUEENSLAND Nats ruining that

Could also put David Crisafulli in a world of pain too.

The problem is that the Nats have same internal split as the Liberals. So there’s actually four groups – conservative Liberals, liberal Liberals, conservative Nationals and liberal Nationals.

The Liberal Nationals in Queensland make this even more difficult to unpack. Gerard Rennick, a conservative who sat with the Liberal party room, was kicked down the ticket despite backing from Dutton (Liberal), Pike (Liberal), Canavan (National), and Pitt (National).

The conversation above again demonstrates why the Coalition needs a divorce. Liberals and conservatives are living in two different realities, even at the level of their understanding of the electorate. The broad church is unworkable.

@North who are the moderate Nationals?

@North by West

It reminds me of how back in the day, in the American political scene, there were conservative Democrats, liberal Democrats, conservative Republicans, and liberal Republicans. Over time, the parties mostly realigned along the liberal versus conservative divide.

@Up the dragons

I imagine Darren Chester is one?

@The Sheriff
He moved to Rocky hoping to force Michelle Landry out, it hasn’t panned out and he’s not popular in Rockhampton. Or anywhere else in Qld, his weak showing at the ’22 Election cost Amanda Stoker her seat.
He’s always in the news criticising the Liberal Party from the right, another reason they lost 4 seats on Brisbane’s outskirts.
He spent years calling on the Coalition to adopt a pro nuclear policy, once they did he failed to support it.

Michael McCormack is another moderate Nat and Kevin Hogan maybe as well.

@Nicholas I think there’s some more moderate nats in NSW state parliament.

@The Sheriff Matt Canavan is seen by most of Queensland, even a lot of people in Rockhampton, as too far right. He’s tried and tried to build an image for himself in CQ – which he certainly has done – but not many people really like him.

Going to the 2019 election with Mick helped Morrison bigly in the Sydney area , imo, dumping him for Barnaby cost the Liberals in ’22.