Macnamara – Australia 2025

“Good noW!”!, B”H. Thank you to Ben for your excellent work. Here’s the good news. While the news is all about the “bad doctor” he’s actually top class. He’s self litigating against the Medical Board at the moment. I suggest check out his website. He’s not only the best candidate, he’s the best there is even if i say so myself. There doesn’t have to be a swing if you put Myers first and whichever party second. You’ll get [2] for the price of [1]. and if he wins, with his NEW HEALTH VISION for Australia, WELLNESS of BODY & SOUL, we’ll all benefit, bring collective harmony to the fore, helping one another. He knows the fixed income bind, because the Medical Board did want to expose themselves and be sued so stopped his cash flow. And later signed a non disclosure agreement with him. So he’s a pensioner, not fair, but grateful and feels the pinch on rent increases and risk of homelessness to fixed income owners; he a medico, the best and a scientist. He’s achieved more between 1985 to 2025 than most and still active, a visionary and too far ahead for the bureaucrats to deal with, that’s all. Read his blurb and make up your own mind. Do not become a wimp to mainstream media and any other BS outlets, least of all on social media either. eg. was COVID really about COVID or a global political threat? Nothing is transparent especially what they want hidden. They point the finger at a scape goat to take the focus off themselves.
Myers is the only candidate worth putting first [1] to ensure harmony in society for everyone.
Make the most of this opportunity.
Put yourself first and choose whichever party you want to take you to Canberra, not let them think they can get away with doing whatever they want with your vote!
If you’ve ever been given a good break, this is it!, “Go for it! Good luck and lot’s of success.” “Make it happen, don’t let it happen to you!.” I know, I’ve copped it by standing up to it.
There’s only one answer, to all Party people, vote Myers [1] for common sense and reason and a Health VISION for Australia, WELLNESS of BODY & SOUL, and the party [2] you want to take yourself to Canberra.
If an alien came to Aussie, what would you tell them we stand for? If you do not know, I won’t blame you! That’s the problem. What is our soul? Read his website posting to find out – “it’s actualising each and everyone’s potential! and saying no to anything that wishes to destroy that!
Thank you for reading. I’m the candidate, B’H, which means “thank G-d”. That said don’t take what you read for granted as true. Mainstream media are a business. They’ll write about what readers choose, sordid stuff!. So recognise the medium and the source. Don’t just believe what you read. Do your research. Hear both sides of the argument and read the fine print or to the bottom of the column. Do not suffice with the headlines. Know the Truth, and live by it!. Would I be standing if I was really what they say? no-way. That’s what they want, to make Oz a penal colony.
I wont’t have a bar of that! And I expect you would not want that too. We’re on the same page. Together we can actualise the HEALTH VISION – WELLNESS of BODY & SOUL, B”H, and change the narrative to – WELLNESS of BODY and SOUL and deal with the COL, communication and housing and energy issues with understanding and applied wisdom, B”H, as far as possible. Enjoy the ride. Joy to the power n is enjoyment! See my eCASH formula and Home and immigration formula “Hi”, Thank you, Please spread the word, let’s change the discourse, change the focus, have VISION! and enjoy doing it together!, Thank you again.
HOW TO VOTE. Please VOTE MYERS [1] for the UNIVERSAL soul, wellness of body & soul
solution, and preference your party of choice [2], then second and third party references, to fill in all the boxes to make your vote count. Please VOTE MYERS [1] for the UNIVERSAL soul, wellness of body & soul solution HOW TO VOTE: VOTE MYERS [1] and preference your party of choice [2], then second and third party references, to fill in all the boxes to make your vote count.
Many thanks! Much success, please spread the word, Thank you. Make it happen here and noW!
Have a VISION. Focus. Make the most of what you have!. Look forward (not back)! do “:Good noW!”!, 2025/5785..
Thank you.
JB Myers, noW!, B”H, “Good noW!”!, 2025/5785.
BSc, MBBCH(Rand) FCP(SA), FRACP, PhD.
B”H, means thank G-d, Thank you!
http://www.myers-1-macnamara-independent.com Thank you! and thank this BLOG! Thank you, Ben Raue!

Micheal danby has created his own second htv with the words “how to stop the greens” and has stated they will have someone on every polling booth in macnamara

Gympie, Yes true about nations near Israel but Israel pretends to be a democracy but its not with sme woth out full votong rights and a deranged

Gympie – Israel pretends it is a democracy but it is not with its oppressive IDF (on non Jews) and a political system that is similar to the former aparthide South Africa.

Sorry about the first sentence in my last as the computer has a mind of its own saving my typos before i corrected them.

John – Danby was for Danby more so than for the electorate.

Whilst true that’s only a result of extremist Muslims trying to wipe them out and they play on people’s fears.

Source on your claim about Danby HTVs John?

He was on sky news showing it off

It was big news in 2016 that Danby handed out an unauthorised (by Labor) HTVC to Jewish voters in Caulfield that had Libs above Greens.

As early as 2013 his entire campaigns had been targeted against the Greens rather than the Libs.

Nothing new here. Danby had made the Greens and their view on Israel the focus of his campaign for a long, long time.

It’s why I’ve said the whole time that it won’t make a bit difference here.

The Jewish community is 10%. I reckon more than 5% of that is already LIB. There are some non-Zionist Jews among the 10% too.

So we’re looking at 3-4%? Most of those Labor voters among them are probably the biggest demographic who already preferenced the Libs above Greens.

So what’s to gain? Not much. The non-Jewish community is where votes will change. Other than maybe a small ALP-LIB swing in that community due to Labor’s UN votes, the other 90% of the electorate will vote on other issues.

Only one party hasn’t been focused (locally at least) on that foreign conflict. Burns and Saulo entirely have.

Tony Lupton and Michael Danby have started a organisation to campaign against the Greens. They are encouraging voter to vote for Josh Burns as the only way to stop the Greens.

https://www.youtube.com/@MacnamaraAgainstExtremism

Yeah that’s been up for a while. Online response seems to be a mix of left wing voters opposing them and rusted on Libs supporting it. Don’t think it’ll change many votes.

Marion Smedley who ran for the Greens in South Barwon at the 2018 State election has endorsed the campaign and said the Greens have been hijacked by extremists.

@ Trent
Have you observed campaigning by Advance Australia?

As much as I get why Burns may have done this, he could’ve just done the standard by preferencing the Greens 2nd, cop it on the chin from whoever in the Jewish community that wanted him to preference the Liberals and shut the gobs of Lupton and Danby and co. Ultimately he wants to win this seat from the Greens but he doesn’t want his swingy voters to go that way either and by giving into that pressure it gives the Greens an opportunity to sneak through on preferences. It’s just a really bad position that he’s found himself in wedged between the Greens and the extreme pro-Israel groups.

@ Nimalan

Isn’t Marion Smedley a single issue transphobe now? I’m sure there’s a few dozen of those floating around who would vehemently hate on the Greens, but I can’t see them having much effect.

I’m interested in Labor volunteer engagement when they run with an open ticket, if anyone is in the electorate and can count the numbers at booths when it takes their fancy.

Could some Labor aligned people be dissuaded to don a red shirt to hand out a HTV card that could help elect a Liberal?

In that particular seat, yes – older members of the local Labor branch were handing out the Tony Lupton HTV that helped to elect the Liberal in Prahran. Only some though.

There was a pretty active Labor campaign in support of Tony Lupton yeah; it started out with only old people but the younger members were mobilised as the campaign went on, presumably because someone realised Lupton was struggling to get into the double digits of voter support.

I dont know why theyve bothered with an open ticket. the jewish population would be smart enough to know that all the surrounding seats and nationally as well labor are preferencing the greens second even Mark Dreyfus is. surely they wont fall for it. If labor get in with the greens labor are gonna sell out israel and vote for a palestinian state.

Tony Lupton trotted Marion Smedley out in the Prahran campaign too. She’s irrelevant, one of the single issue Greens who had a falling out with the party.

So far I’ve received a couple of leaflets from Advance targeting the Greens, but haven’t really seen any other advertising by them. Whereas for Prahran they had posters and ads everywhere.

Also I’ve never seen any of Danby & Lupton’s group’s sponsored ads on social media yet either, I had to actively search for their page to see what they were about.

So the Advance campaign seems much smaller than it was in Prahran. Also, Danby & Lupton had a falling out with Advance over different messaging – Danby/Lupton pushing a Burns vote to keep the Greens in third place, Advance are pushing a Liberal vote that Danby/Lupton are saying will help the Greens (they’re not wrong).

That fracture could be why there isn’t the same level of coordinated campaign that there was in Prahran when Advance were backing Lupton.

I agree with John too that Burns probably shouldn’t have bothered with an open ticket, and the main reason simply being that I don’t think it’s achieved what he wanted it to anyway. Instead of the Jewish community celebrating the decision, it has mostly been met with disappointment that he didn’t explicitly put them last.

Josh Burns was door knocking in my street yesterday actually. He was handing out leaflets specific to what he is delivering for St Kilda. He skipped my house despite me actually being on the front porch at the time. The Sonya Semmens corflute is probably the reason!

Final report from the ground is corflutes. Noting I haven’t really been anywhere north of St Kilda West, here’s what I’ve seen:

– Around 8 Benson Saulo corflutes, as you’d expect mostly on the larger, wealthier multi-million dollar homes. Seen about 2 in St Kilda West, 3 in St Kilda, 2 around Caulfield (one house has both Saulo and Tim Wilson signs), 1 in Balaclava plus there’s a big real-estate size sign on a Punt Road house.

– Only 2 houses with Josh Burns corflutes, 1 in St Kilda and 1 in Balaclava that has 2 corflutes and a giant real-estate style sign!

– Probably 50-60 Sonya Semmens ones, scattered everywhere but especially lots in St Kilda, Elwood (heaps there!) and Balaclava. A couple of spots in Prahran had Semmens and Bandt corflutes next to each other.

Josh Burns has a lot of ads in phone booths, whole the Greens have bill posters plastered all over the electorate. They all say “KEEP DUTTON OUT AND GET LABOR TO ACT”.

With Labor running an open ticket, the “Keep Dutton Out” theme probably has two purposes now: not just to get primary votes but also serves to remind Labor voters why they should preference the Greens ahead of the Liberals. They are putting Dutton front and centre probably because in Prahran there was no focus on party leaders which let Rachel Westaway just present as a good moderate local in the absence of a broader election campaign.

Trent, the presence of ‘Keep Dutton Out’ posters/flyers will make it harder for Benson Saulo as Liberal candidate to focus on a ‘localised’ theme that Rachel Westaway successfully campaigned on. As a result, he is unlikely to achieve the same 36% primary vote that Westaway achieved, probably closer to 30% instead.

Agree.

A couple of months ago when the Coalition were doing very well in the polls, especially in VIC, I thought that combined with a rebound from the horrendous 2022 candidate could get the Libs back around the 36-37 range here.

And with a Labor open ticket, a 37 primary vote translating to roughly a 40 3CP would put them in a position where they’d just need roughly a third of Labor preferences to win a GRN v LIB contest.

But with the Coalition tanking in the polls and most of the advertising focusing on Dutton, I think a 34-35 primary vote will be the ceiling for them. I do think they’ll get a candidate-based rebound plus a possible swing in Caulfield so I think they’ll do better than 30. My guess now is more around 33-34 which isn’t competitive.

@ Trent
TBH i did not know Marion Smedley was i just saw on that youtube channel with Lupton and Danby thats the only reason i raised it. The other thing i noticed was the ad with Lupton and Danby talking about inheritance tax he mentioned people in Albert Park and Middle Park will suffer but did not mention St Kilda etc so i think they are hoping some soft Green Doctors Wives who once supported Turnbull may vote for Burns as the centrist option.

I even saw a picture of a Semmens corflute on top of a Josh Burns office! On the bus the other day going through caulfield/ripponlea, there was many Saulo corflutes, almost every second house. But outside of there, I only saw one Josh Burns, and lots of Sonya Semmens.

I’ve been hanging out in Macnamara, mostly around St Kilda and Port Melbourne, over the past few days. I didn’t see a single corflute for Burns outside anyone’s house, but I saw a couple of posters. Lots of corflutes for Saulo (esp around Port Melbourne and Albert Park) and even more for Semmens. I had this lineball before visiting, but since coming down to Melbourne and seeing the situation for myself it seems like a likely Greens gain.

I’ve heard that Semmens has been campaigning HARD on the ground, along with the deterioration for Labor in Vic I agree it’s a likely green gain.

@Darcy – similar circumstances but I actually saw a sign for Nathan Conroy in Dunkley above Jodie Belyea’s office in Frankston the other day. This election is competitive!

Back to Macnamara, I was in Elwood and St Kilda on Saturday. I saw a decent amount of Sonya Semmens corflutes in Elwood, and only around 2 in St Kilda. I saw some large Benson Saulo corflutes in St Kilda, and a few smaller ones in Elwood. For Josh Burns, I surprisingly only saw a total of two ads at tram stops, both in St Kilda. A little worrying with the lack of visibility but again advertisements don’t vote, nonetheless it is quite odd considering this seat is vulnerable.

@Trent – when I was in Elwood I saw a house that had signs for both Benson Saulo and Tim Wilson, very odd considering that Elwood isn’t in Goldstein.

Anyways, I’m saying this will be a Greens gain with a GRN-LIB 2CP. The momentum for the Greens is very strong along with the Liberals, but I just can’t see Labor getting through unless the Greens or Liberals absolutely tank.

The X factor here is whether there will be tactical voting to keep the Greens out by Jewish voters it is something i dont know but the AJN has suggested it.

Even then that’s only a few % points at most, doubt it’ll be enough to counter the general trend.

@ Clarinet of Communists but that is often where the Liberal vote is strongest so it help keep Labor in the 2CP.

Yeah it’s possible, I just expect the gap between Labor and the other two to be bigger than the jewish vote could compensate for, even if it swung hard.

Ultimately, i think the seat will not be called on night and will need all votes to be counted and a full distribution of preferences to be made. I dont think the Liberal primary will rise much outside the Jewish community not many people here have any reason to vote for Dutton. I dont want to speak for the Jewish community and i personally dont know what will happen within the community but if they do tactically vote i can see Libs dropping out of the 2CP.

The wild card in Macnamara is the high number of postal votes. Could be similar to last time when the count did not become clear until the postals were counted.

Exactly the Jewish community often does postal votes and where the Libs do well. We need to wait for them to come in to see if there is a tactical swing. For that reason i dont think Antony Green will call the seat on the night.

I agree with pretty much all this commentary.

The Greens are running HARD. Huge ground campaign. Hosting lots of local events. Massive visibility through corflutes, ads, posters. Flooding social media with ads. And their messaging has been excellent I think, very clear, focused on Dutton, giving a clear instruction to vote 1 Greens and 2 Labor to keep Dutton out which is a much clearer message than Labor have, not to mention the clearest focus on cost of living pressures too. I think their vote from 2022 will at least hold up.

The Liberals are running harder and with a better candidate than they have in the previous two elections. I fully expect an above average swing to them here based on that alone. But, considering the Lib campaign overall has tanked and now they’re only polling at around a +2 swing in Victoria (compared to +4 a couple of months ago), it won’t be enough to competitive in a 2CP still. I think a swing of anywhere between 4-6% is realistic here though.

And that 4-6% swing has to come from somewhere. If the Greens vote holds up, it only leaves minors (I do expect less of a minor party vote) and Labor.

Labor’s campaign has seemed to struggle to get a clear message across here. Burns is stuck giving different messages to two different audiences, and the overall vibe is just that he’s in trouble.

I think we’re heading towards a result like this:
LIB 34.5
GRN 30.5
ALP 29.5
Others 5.5

3CP something like LIB 37, GRN 32.5, ALP 30.5.

Greens 2CP around 53.5 (which is around 70% of ALP preferences).

The Greens will probably be much further ahead on the night too, because they do particularly badly in Macnamara postal votes. If it’s not called (likely) it’ll be more because Labor are close enough in the 3CP count that overtaking the Greens after postal votes can’t be ruled out yet.

The issue facing the Pro-Israel side in Macnamara is that Labor preferencing the Greens last is expecting something that is never going to be. If Labor preferenced the Greens last i siill dont feel many Labor voters especially in a seat like this will follow the HTVC just like Labor if did that in Ryan or Brisbane it risks Dutton and secondly i am not sure how many people will actually follow the HTVC. Secondly, Labor cannot afford not to preference the Greens in the senate as they are still easier to work with than Right Wing minor parties such as Family First. Labor made a big mistake in 2004 to preference Family First over the Greens in the Senate which allowed Fielding to be elected he turned out to be hard for Kevin Rudd to work with. Labor very rarely wins 3/6 Senate seats per state these days so their preference is always for the Greens to win that seat.

https://www.smh.com.au/national/just-not-kosher-the-diabolical-dilemma-facing-jewish-voters-in-macnamara-20250423-p5ltm6.html

Article in The Age today about the “Jewish dilemma” in Macnamara. Tony Lupton is quoted advocating for a tactical Labor vote.

Chip Le Grand makes an error when he says the Liberals have polled the most first preference votes at the last 4 elections here. They came first on 3CP last time but actually came third on first preference votes.

The Age has made so many mistakes in its political reporting (I remember for the Prahran byelection they kept referring to Toorak still being in the seat).

Also, it refers to Macnamara being the “most Jewish electorate” (Wentworth is, although Macnamara is certainly the most Orthodox Jewish), and at the last Census Macnamara was 9.9% Jewish, not 12%.

Trent you would have loved the British style ‘keep the greens out’ flyer which proposes that because of a wonky seat poll that had the greens just in front of Labor (with a curiously high Liberal primary) it is now more prudent to vote Liberal in order to prevent the seat going green.

https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2025/04/so-whats-deal-with-macnamara-2025.html

It’s at the bottom of Bonham’s article here. A good read actually.

I received that flyer and had to laugh, Kevin Bonham ripped into it on his latest blog too!

Even with the curiously high LIB primary it was still only around the same as 2019 when it translated to an uncompetitive 43.8% 2PP so it was pretty funny seeing that – coupled with only 2% between Labor & Greens, in a poll taken before Labor’s support has rebounded – portrayed as only the Liberals being able to beat the Greens!

On another note I watched the replay of Tuesday night’s candidate forum in St Kilda.

Sonya Semmens was excellent, she has the advantage of a clear target audience – progressive left voters in a majority progressive left seat – so was able to passionately promote her policies without being around the bush

Benson Saulo seems like a genuinely nice guy, but in the wrong party, so his issue was the opposite scenario. He struggled to get a clear message across by having to avoid a lot of Dutton’s more unpopular positions or try to spin them. Much of the time he answered questions by really just acknowledging the concern and saying he’s heard it from voters.

Probably his most regretful moment was calling One Nation a “centre right” party which erupted in laughter!

Josh Burns, I have to say, copped a lot of difficult questions and handled them extremely well. He is in a difficult position trying to retain support from two very different cohorts, but as the incumbent did very well focusing on his record and achievements.

While I’m voting Greens, like in 2022 if Josh Burns does retain it’s still a decent outcome as I think he is a good MP, and has the potential to be a rising talent in the Labor Party. He was quite prime ministerial at times, an excellent communicator, and if he does retain I hope he gets promoted.

Trying to predict what primary vote the Liberals might get here this time around, I looked at how the Liberals primary vote in Melbourne Ports / Macnamara has compared to the Coalition primary vote in VIC overall going back to 2007, to see where it might land compared to current polling.

Here are the differences from 2007-22:

Year | VIC | Ports/Macnamara | Difference
2007 | 41.1 | 39.7 | -1.4
2010 | 39.6 | 37.8 | -1.8
2013 | 42.7 | 41.1 | -1.6
2016 | 41.8 | 41.9 | +0.1
2019 | 38.6 | 37.4 | -1.2
2022 | 33.1 | 29.0 | -4.1

With the exception of 2016 and 2022, it’s remarkably consistent, averaging 1.5% below the statewide result and no more than +/- 0.3% from 1.5%.

2016 & 2022 makes sense as exceptions too:

* 2016 was a perfect storm of the most progressive Liberal leader in decades, and Danby a negative for Labor;

* 2022 had a complete and utter lack of campaign by the Liberals in the seat, they literally ran dead not even handing out HTVCs at polling booths

I think in 2025 with the conflicting factors of a much better candidate plus a possible Jewish swing being positives but Dutton being a negative, it will return to the average of around 1.5% below the statewide Coalition primary.

The Coalition are currently tracking at around 35.8% on Poll Bludger, so I’d predict that the Liberal primary vote here will start with 34 for a swing of over 5%. Perhaps around the mid-34s.

I think “others” will go back to around the 5.5% mark.

That’ll leave around 60% between Greens & Labor, so whichever of the two makes the 2CP should have a 3 in front of its primary vote.

If the Greens make the 2CP and have a primary vote north of 31% (which would only require a +1.3 swing), I can’t see the Liberals getting enough Labor preferences to squeak out an upset.

Updated prediction based on looking at the Liberal primary vote variances:

LIB 34.5
GRN 30.5
ALP 29.5
Others 5.5

3CP:
LIB 37, GRN 32.5, ALP 30.5

2CP:
GRN 53, LIB 47

Interestingly, Advance’s poll that had a 37 LIB primary which was taken back when the Coalition primary polling average was around 38-39% in VIC is right on par with the historical difference between Macnamara and VIC too.

I’m not convinced the Greens will get a +1.3% primary vote swing. It’s certainly very possible, but I don’t think it’s likely enough to give the Greens an edge in this seat. I see it as a 50/50 Labor or Greens seat. I don’t see the Greens vote going up substantially, particularly not in the inner city where they may have reached their peak, as they are now growing in more suburban areas.

The absence of Animal Justice (who always got over 2% with a heavy preference flow to the Greens) alone might add 1% to the Greens’ primary.

It’s also by far the biggest Greens campaign I’ve ever seen run here, and I feel like Josh Burns has struggled a bit being attacked by both sides for “playing both sides” (the Liberal ads here are saying that very thing and showing him saying contradictory things at different forums – that will actually resonate with Greens/Labor voters as much as it will the Liberal/Labor voters they are targeting).

So I can definitely see him having about 2% shaved off his primary vote, mostly to the Libs, not the Greens, but the lack of AJP boosting the Greens primary which could otherwise simply hold up.

Also in my prediction there, the Greens 3CP result is actually a -0.3% compared to 2022. So I think that probably reflects the AJP factor too, as I’m not actually predicting they will get a 3CP swing.

It’s mostly a transfer from ALP to LIB at both the primary and 3CP stages that I predict will reduce Labor to third, while the Greens’ 3CP remains stagnant if not slightly backwards.

I think the ‘playing both sides’ will help Labor with moderate voters, especially in places like Port Melbourne, South Melbourne, Albert Park. A lot of people don’t want to get involved in the Israel-Palestine and just want to see peace, without supporting Hamas or the IDF’s actions. Not taking a strong stance either way and condemning atrocities on both sides probably plays well with moderate voters.

Today Canadian Election (that will most likely lead to a minority Mark Carney’s Liberal Government) has saw Jewish Heavy Seats swinging heavily towards the Conservatives so I wonder if the Jewish heavy areas will also swing heavilyto the Liberal Party?

@ Marh
How did Muslim areas swing in Canada? I think Goldstein, Wentworth will swing to Libs but i am not sure if that will be enough if non Jewish voters swing due to Dutton being unpopular.

@Nimalan, Canada seems to be the exception where Gaza issue did not affect the results for Muslim heavy seats so I think this is attributed to most Muslims in Canada tends to be skilled white collar immigrants and more secular plus it is probably unviable to place a Muslim Vote matters due to the need to tactically vote (either Libs or NDP) to stop Conservatives winning.

Looks like for the Indian heavy seats like Brampton East and Surrey Newton, there was a huge swing to Conservatives although they feel short of winning them so I wonder would there also be something similar in Australia South Asian Heavy new housing estates?