Hawke – Australia 2025

@nimalan those 4 seats will be on the libs radar in 2028 they should win mcewen and blair after the redistribution the margin should only be about 2.5% if qld does not gain another seat. gorton and hawke will defeintely be targets for the libs. and i think bendigo the nats will probly win if lathlean gives it another go. especially if allen is still premier. ballarat will probaly be another target as the libs got a small swing there this time. though the nats might have a go there as well.

@ John
I certainly agree that those 4 seats are still on the radar. Labor did not have a thumping result like they did in South East Melbourne. Melton electrification will not be done by 2028. However, as i mentioned McEwen was held for the Howard Era so it is a traditional marginal not a Red Wall seat so it is not a replacement for the Teals. Tony Abbott just failed to win it in 2013 because there was a Pro-Labor redistribution that put in Strongly Labor voting Cragieburn into the seat. On the 2010 boundaries Tony Abbott would have easily won McEwen in 2013 and probably held on to in 2016 and 2022 if they had a good member. However, a seat like Calwell is on the Rader and the Libs would be wise to run dead and let Joseph Youhana take it

@nimalan in regards to mcewen should vic regain a seat after 2028 it would remove the macedon ranges from mcewen at which point they should easily hold/win it after that. its that area and castelmaine that also saved labor in bendigo

in regards to calwell it was probably the large field and Moslih that saved Labor. had the greens not gotten over Youhana he probably would of won off greens preferences.

@ John
Youhana is a greater threat to Labor then Carly Moore. Youhana has connections in the Assyrian community and as he is Christian the Libs will be happy to preference him over Labor. What Palestine has done though in Calwell is that it made Muslims forget about lockdowns TOP did much worse than UAP did in 2022. I think the Libs would be wise to run dead in Calwell, in Scullin if there an independent from the Macedonian community for example then Labor could loose it if Libs are happy to run dead.

@Nimalan other than the Hunter and Penrith City Council where the Labor MPs have personal votes (Londonderry is Deputy Premier Prue Carr’s seat, while Penrith is more at risk), the state Liberals do better in both the inner and outer suburbs of Sydney.

@ Nether Portal
Agree, the State Libs do well in Ethnic areas of Sydney as well for example Riverstone, Parramatta, Drommoyne, Ryde often better than Federal Libs. I think the Hunter Region is also due to the climate wars at a Federal level where Coalition has tried to win those to offset the Teal seats. Agree Londonderry in Prue Carr;s seat and she is popular locally. Also there is no path for government at a state level even minority without Penrith so State Labor is forced to compete there.

Now the Nats have been pushed out of the TCP in Hunter despite the Coalition trying really hard to win areas like that. Huge swings to Labor in Paterson and Shortland too.

@ Dan M
The issue for Labor in that in Paterson they have not yet recovered to pre-Adani levels in 2016 while in Shortland they have but still below 2007/2010 levels. Once Labor recovers to those levels they can feel they have won the climate wars.

That’s because of the str9ng one nation vote in Hunter plus the decent candidate in Stuart bonds in a better cycle it may have been winnable. Hunter in its next form may be winnable due to the surplus along the north coast and Hunter seats equating to about 50% of a quota. So a new seat might be created and one in Sydney abolished. The new seat would resemble the old Hunter prior to its 2016 abolition and the current Hunter would resemble the old Charlton.

Hawke was touted as an at-risk seat before the election. It was seen as a canary in the coal mine. There’s an aging state Labor government with a brand issue. There was also Dutton’s targeting of outer suburban seats, especially in Melbourne, trying to capture disaffected voters. I recall even seats like Gorton, Aston, Isaacs and Bruce were talked about as potential targets.

Victoria was a battleground state due to the number of voters that could potentially convert, a huge swag of seats and a strong anti-lockdown sentiment from the previous election. There were lots of attack ads linking Premier Allan with Albanese, even in Brisbane of all places.

It’s hard to conclude whether the state Labor brand (despite its age and unpopularity) held back federal Labor. Federal Labor’s 2PP in Victoria ended up higher than in WA but lower than in Tas and SA. Victoria was heavily targetted and millions went into the campaign. A lot went to tradtionally Labor heartland seats with Labor 2PP margins of over 10%. It could’ve been that the two opposing forces negated each other – anti-Dutton vote was greater than the anti-Allan vote.

There was no 2PP swing in Hawke and overall, a 3% 2PP swing to Labor in outer metro electorates in Vic. It’s smaller swing in outer metro electorates of most other states.
https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseTppByStateByDemographic-31496.htm

@Votante It’s probably that the unpopularity of Jacinta Allan is the reason why Labor’s swing is minuscule compared to the other states with popular Labor governments (bar Tasmania and Queensland).

@Tommo9
The State governememnt issues would have been a factor but the beauty of the Victorian Labor campaign machine is that they are good at sandbagging/focusing where it matters. This why Labor was still able to win all seats that they had on the bingo card while the statewide swing was miniscule it occured where it mattered. They picked up Aston , Menzies and Deakin, they got a status quo result in the seats they were concerned about (Hawke, Gorton and McEwan) blew out the margins in Bruce, Holt so they are not in reach in 2028. I dont think they would have won Flinders/Casey even if Jacinta Allan was popular. Monash has trended right so Labor no longer cares. La Trobe was a good result they won pretty much all booths in the Urban part. This is Labor best ever result in Victoria at a Federal election.

@Tommo9, it could’ve been the unpopularity of state Labor meant that Victoria was heavily targetted. It could also be that the 25c fuel excise discount minimised the flow of Liberal voters to Labor in the outer suburbs.

To Labor’s credit, as Nimalan pointed out, they got swings where it mattered. They defended their own seats and won Menzies and Deakin as well as Melbourne (by surprise).

*picked up Aston based on General election results i mean.
Also in 2022 Labor suffered a statewide swing against it but increased it seat count because it was able to focus where it mattered.

@Nimalan: “..the beauty of the Victorian Labor campaign machine is that they are good at sandbagging/focusing where it matters.”

This is why I’m sure Victorian Labor will hold onto government (albeit with a significant swing against them) in 2026. Yes, the government is unpopular, seen as tired, there’s a “time’s up” factor, all of that, and that’s why I’m sure there will be a pretty significant swing and loss of seats.

However, the bottom line is:

– The Liberals need to net a total of 17 seats from their 2022 result, which takes them up to 8% on the pendulum. Every seat up to that point they don’t gain, is a seat above 8% that they need to gain. Note these seats range from inner city to sandbelt to eastern suburbs to outer north/west to regional.

– Labor only need to sandbag a handful of them to retain government.

And, like you say, Labor are a campaign machine and typically excellent at sandbagging seats where it matters. It’s very hard to imagine that Labor won’t sandbag at least 4-5 of those first 17 seats ALP v LIB seats on the pendulum, which then makes the Liberals need to win 4-5 seats above that.

And at that point, you’re looking at seats in areas that had significant swings TO Labor at the federal election. And while fed & state are different, and they will probably have swings against them in 2026, we’re talking about seats on margins of around 9% here…. Will a 5% swing to federal Labor in some of these areas (Bruce & Isaacs type areas) translate to a >9% swing against state Labor, a difference of 14%? Very doubtful.

Agree Trent, the Victorian Liberals heading into 2010 with Ted Baillieu needed to gain 14 seats for a majority which they barely accomplished. Given federal trends which have seen the Liberals go backwards in their traditional heartland areas (Eastern Melbourne), it is hard to see them picking up 17 in 2026. The best situation will be a low double-digit gain (10-15 seats) which puts them in striking distance for winning in 2030.

@ Trent
I agree. Also Calwell had a notional swing to Labor. My Estimate is that Greenvale on Federal figures would be a very safe Labor seat again maybe 12% TPP. It was seen as a replacement or breaking Red Wall. If you can calculate Greenvale that will be great. Also Brad Battin seat of Berwick maybe Labor on Federal figures and the Narre Warrens would likely have a margin over 10%
Yoh An, Ted Ballieu needed 13 seats not 14. As Nats won East Gippsland he only needed 12 on a 6.3% uniform swing but even then Labor sandbagged Bendigo East, Ripon and Ballarat West which were first 13 so Libs had to win Carrum and Seympour up the pendulum.

I don’t think it’s impossible for the Coalition to win the next Victorian state election. What if it ends up being a big turning point like the last New Zealand general election?

Tony Barry once said the Victorian Libs are where hope goes to die and they can ruin Taylor Swift’s career if you just give them a month.

I don’t think it’s impossible either, but just very unlikely.

I think they could win 10-12 seats potentially. Labor could also lose its majority and finish on 42-43 seats.

But the federal campaign also showed while mid-term polling can reflect dissatisfaction, it doesn’t necessarily turn into swings during the actual election campaign unless the opposition can present an attractive alternative vision.

The Liberals have really struggled with that, meanwhile as Nimalan said Labor really know how to sandbag seats, and their campaigns are generally very strong. They also have FAR more campaign resources than the Libs.

If they have to win seats like Mordialloc, on 8.3% margins in areas which just had 5-6% federal swings to Labor despite the state-drag, it’s really hard to see those big margins being erased.

Seats within the 17 lowest on the pendulum such as Box Hill, Bentleigh and Ringwood on margins between 7-8% look very unlikely to flip, so they’re the kind of seats that will cause the Libs to need gains above the 17 lowest on the pendulum.

@ Trent
What do you think about Greenvale. Look at notional polling booth results on Federal Figures
Booths notional ALP TPP
1. Meadow Heights 77.55% 8.69% Swing to Labor
2. Meadow Heights Central 78.01% 10.22% Swing to Labor
3. Meadow Heights South (Bethel Primary School) 79.13% 7.13% swing to Labor
3. Roxburgh Homestead 73.45% TPP 5.35% Swing Labor
4. Roxburgh Park 75.45% 2.17% Swing to Labor
5. Roxburh Park North 68.34% 2% swing to Labor
6. Roxburgh Rise 73.01 6.06% swing to Labor
7. Greenvale 60.39% 8.35% swing to Labor
8. Greenvale North 63.07% 9.58% Swing to Labor
9. Greenvale South 51% 1.81% swing to Libs
10. Westmeadows 58.54% 2.27% Swing to Libs
11. Attwood 59.59% 0.6% swing to Libs
These are only ordinary polling day booths we still need postal, prepoolls and absents

PPVC/EAV and Hospital includes all Calwell ones not just within Greenvale
1.Special Hospital Team 1 69.09% 7.35% swing to Labor
2. Special Hospital Team 2-65.79% 4.04 swing to Labor
3. Special Hospital Team 3 76.92% 15.29% swing to Labor
4. Brunswick Calwell PPVC 69.8% 6.42% swing to Labor
5. Broadmeadows Calwell PPVC 64.34 -3.08% swing to Libs
6. Epping Calwell PPVC 62.89% 1.54% Swing to Labor
7. Cragieburn Calwell PPVC 1.95% swing to Libs
8. Avondale Heights Calwell PPVC 57.99 2.99% swing to Labor
10. Essendon Callwell PPVC 53.42 a 2.49% swing to Labor

the problem is Jacinta Allen could be under threat in Bendigo East. forcing them to divert resources and time to hold that seat and that prevents her from campaigning elsewhere