Incumbent Senators
| Term due to expire 2025 | Term due to expire 2028 |
| Slade Brockman (Liberal) | Michaelia Cash (Liberal) |
| Varun Ghosh (Labor)1 | Dorinda Cox (Greens) |
| Matt O’Sullivan (Liberal) | Sue Lines (Labor) |
| Louise Pratt (Labor) | Fatima Payman (Independent)2 |
| Linda Reynolds (Liberal) | Dean Smith (Liberal) |
| Jordon Steele-John (Greens) | Glenn Sterle (Labor) |
1Varun Ghosh replaced Pat Dodson on 1 February 2024 following Dodson’s resignation.
2Fatima Payman resigned from the Labor Party on 4 July 2024 to become an independent.
History
Western Australian Senate races were dominated by the Coalition from 1951 until the beginning of the 1980s. The 1951 election produced a result of four ALP senators, four Liberal senators and two Country Party senators. The 1953 election saw the ALP win a seat off the Country Party, but the previous result was restored in 1955. The 4-4-2 result was maintained at every election throughout the 1950s and 1960s. The 1970 Senate election saw the Liberal Party lose one of its four seats to independent Syd Negus, who was elected on a platform of abolishing death duties.
The 1974 double dissolution saw Negus defeated and the Country Party lose one of its two seats. The result saw five Labor senators alongside four Liberals and one Country senator. The 1975 double dissolution saw the Coalition regain its majority in Western Australia, with the ALP losing its fifth senate seat to the Liberals. The 1977 election saw the National Country Party lose its senate seat to the Liberals, producing a result of six Liberals and four Labor senators.
The 1983 double dissolution saw the Liberals lose their majority, with five Liberals, four Labor and one Democrat elected. The 1984 election saw Labor gain both new Senate seats while the Democrats lost their seat. In addition to 6 ALP and 5 Liberal, the Nuclear Disarmament Party’s Jo Vallentine was elected. At the 1987 double dissolution, Vallentine was re-elected as an independent along with a Democrat and five each for the two major parties.
The 1990 election saw the Liberals win six seats, along with five Labor and the re-elected Vallentine, who was re-elected as a Green. The Liberals have maintained six WA seats ever since. The 1993 election saw the Greens win a second seat off the ALP. From 1993 until today, WA has been represented by six Liberals, four Labor senators and two minor party Senators from the Greens or Democrats.
In 1996, the Greens lost one of their seats to the Democrats, losing their other seat in 1998. The Democrats held onto their seat in 2001 before losing one of their seats in 2004. The last Democrat was defeated by the Greens candidate in 2007.
The 2010 election was a status quo result. It was the third election in a row which saw three Liberals, two Labor and one Green elected.
The 2013 election produced a bizarre result, where a tiny vote margin between two nonviable candidates decided whether two seats would go to the Palmer United Party and Labor, or the Greens and the Australian Sports Party. A recount reversed the result, but also saw a large batch of ballot papers go missing, forcing a re-election.
At the 2014 re-election, large swings to the Greens and the Palmer United Party saw both parties win one seat each, with the Liberal Party retaining their three seats and Labor limping in with only one seat.
There were two changes at the 2016 double dissolution. Labor recovered their fourth seat, while the Liberal Party dropped from six to five. The Greens maintained their two seats. The Palmer United Party lost their sole seat, with One Nation winning a single seat.
The Liberal Party regained their third seat (for a total of six) at the 2019 election, with One Nation losing their sole seat. There was no change for Labor or the Greens.
The 2022 election was a strong one for the left in Western Australia. Labor won three seats in the state for the first time ever at a six-seat Senate election. They managed to do so not by defeating another left party for the third seat, but by winning a seat off the right. Labor won three seats along with two Liberals and one Green. This was crucial in producing a progressive majority in the Senate.
| Group | Votes | % | Swing | Quota |
| Labor | 527,319 | 34.6 | +7.0 | 2.4187 |
| Liberal | 483,364 | 31.7 | -9.2 | 2.2171 |
| Greens | 217,571 | 14.3 | +2.5 | 0.9979 |
| One Nation | 53,260 | 3.5 | -2.4 | 0.2443 |
| Legalise Cannabis | 51,568 | 3.4 | +1.7 | 0.2365 |
| Australian Christians | 33,143 | 2.2 | +0.5 | 0.1520 |
| United Australia | 32,543 | 2.1 | +0.4 | 0.1493 |
| Liberal Democrats | 29,511 | 1.9 | +1.2 | 0.1354 |
| Western Australia Party | 26,555 | 1.7 | +0.5 | 0.1218 |
| Great Australian Party | 15,958 | 1.0 | +1.0 | 0.0732 |
| Animal Justice | 14,186 | 0.9 | -0.1 | 0.0651 |
| Federation Party | 8,339 | 0.5 | +0.5 | 0.0382 |
| Others | 32,806 | 2.1 | 0.1505 | |
| Informal | 45,776 | 2.9 |
Preference flows
Four seats were won on primary votes: two for the Liberal Party and two for Labor. The Greens fell just a few hundred votes short of a quota on primary votes, and won the fifth seat relatively early in the count.
We can now fast forward to the last ten candidates contesting the last seat, with none of them close to a quota:
- Fatima Payman (ALP) – 0.4415 quotas
- Nicola Johnson (LGC) – 0.2628
- Paul Filing (ON) – 0.2627
- Ben Small (LIB) – 0.2253
- Mike Crichton (CHR) – 0.1612
- James McDonald (UAP) – 0.1609
- Kate Fantinel (LDP) – 0.1459
- Matthew McDowall (WAP) – 0.1459
- Rod Culleton (GAP) – 0.0970
- Amanda Dorn (AJP) – 0.0864
AJP preferences flowed to Legalise Cannabis, Labor and the Western Australia Party:
- Payman (ALP) – 0.4603
- Johnson (LGC) – 0.2878
- Filing (ON) – 0.2675
- Small (LIB) – 0.2327
- Crichton (CHR) – 0.1633
- McDonald (UAP) – 0.1630
- Fantinel (LDP) – 0.1486
- McDowall (WAP) – 0.1606
- Culleton (GAP) – 0.1005
One Nation did best out of preferences from Culleton, who had previously been elected as a One Nation senator:
- Payman (ALP) – 0.4637
- Johnson (LGC) – 0.3022
- Filing (ON) – 0.2967
- Small (LIB) – 0.2350
- McDonald (UAP) – 0.1797
- McDowall (WAP) – 0.1700
- Crichton (CHR) – 0.1674
- Fantinel (LDP) – 0.1655
Liberal Democrats preferences favoured the Liberal Party primarily, but One Nation managed to overtake Legalise Cannabis:
- Payman (ALP) – 0.4891
- Filing (ON) – 0.3259
- Johnson (LGC) – 0.3166
- Small (LIB) – 0.2800
- McDonald (UAP) – 0.1964
- McDowall (WAP) – 0.1838
- Crichton (CHR) – 0.1753
Australian Christians preferences favoured the Liberal and One Nation candidates
- Payman (ALP) – 0.5175
- Filing (ON) – 0.3718
- Small (LIB) – 0.3315
- Johnson (LGC) – 0.3228
- McDonald (UAP) – 0.2170
- McDowall (WAP) – 0.1990
Western Australia Party preferences favoured the major parties:
- Payman (ALP) – 0.5620
- Filing (ON) – 0.3980
- Small (LIB) – 0.3821
- Johnson (LGC) – 0.3553
- McDonald (UAP) – 0.2312
United Australia preferences overwhelmingly flowed to One Nation, bringing One Nation as close as they got to Labor through this count:
- Payman (ALP) – 0.5949
- Filing (ON) – 0.5258
- Small (LIB) – 0.4036
- Johnson (LGC) – 0.3787
Legalise Cannabis preferences tended to scatter, but Labor did best out of them:
- Payman (ALP) – 0.7117
- Filing (ON) – 0.6106
- Small (LIB) – 0.4556
Liberal preferences split roughly equally, slightly favouring Labor while quite a lot exhausted:
- Payman (ALP) – 0.8531
- Filing (ON) – 0.7454
Labor’s Payman won the final seat by a margin of 0.1077 quotas, or about 23,500 votes.
- A – Rodney Cullerton (Great Australian Party)
- B – Steve Klomp (Australian Christians)
- C – Aisha Nancy Novakovich (Citizens Party)
- D – Melissa Bannister (Trumpet of Patriots)
- E – Karen Oborn (Sustainable Australia)
- F – Elana Mitchell (Democrats)
- G – Ryan Burns (Libertarian)
- H – Madison King (People First)
- I – Jordon Steele-John (Greens)
- J – Tian Carrie-Wilson (Fusion)
- K – Jade Sobieralski (Socialist Alliance)
- L – Labor
- Ellie Whiteaker
- Varun Ghosh
- Deep Singh
- M – Tyron Whitten (One Nation)
- N – Jason Meotti (Legalise Cannabis Party)
- O – Michael Anagno (Animal Justice)
- P – Megan Krakouer (Australia’s Voice)
- Q – Liberal
- R – Paul Brown (Nationals)
- Ungrouped
-
- Ky Cao (Independent)
- Kim Mubarak (Independent)
-
Assessment
The left did remarkably well to win four senate seats in Western Australia in 2022 and it’s unlikely that will be repeated, but they should be in a position to retain the two Labor and one Greens seats up for grabs.
It’s worth noting that One Nation, not the Liberal Party, came closer to winning a third right seat in 2022. If the Liberal Party remains weak in the west but Labor’s support dips a little, One Nation could be in the box seat to pick up a seat.
This could be Dorinda Cox’s one and only term. Who knows. The no. 3 Labor candidate in 2022 was Fatima Payman. Since she left and started her own party, I doubt she will be back on the Labor ticket again.
I read that it is now possible for Labor (with Dorinda Cox) to form a majority with every non-Green crossbencher in the senate.
Apparently Cox’s office had a high Staff turnover with 20 people resigning within a 3 year period over bullying and hostile work environment as their complaints.
This is pure speculation but my guess is with the reports of bullying cox wasn’t likely to be preselected again at the top of the greens ticket, so she jumped ship most likely into the third labor senate spot as a way of keeping her seat. I’m sceptical she “asked for nothing in return” because its probably a good deal for both sides, cox keeps her seat and labor get an extra senate plus score some points on the greens. Then again, might just have wanted to piss off the greens on the way out the door lol.
As I said before, I think that she could quite well end up in 1st or 2nd place on Labor’s ticket come 2028 if Sue Lines was to retire by then (she’s in her mid 70s and whilst she’s definitely still got it, she might want out before too long) and given Cox is from the Greens she fills the left faction void quite well if that was to eventuate.
This could mean that someone like Brad Pettitt could be the next Greens Senator in WA
Cox was told last year she wont be on the Green ticket. I think she took so long deciding ALP or IND.
ALP and Gren will agai take 3 spots. The last spot will likely be Lib or One Nation with a slim chande of Payman, as she will get most preferences.
I think it is very speculative to forecast that Fatima Payman has much chance at all of re-relection in 2028. Australia’s Voice generated 0.048 of a quota and she has been quite low profile in 2025. She got an easy run initially on the ABC after he defection but has been hardly sighted since then. Would take something special over the next three years for her to build a profile for a run at another term.
Agree Huxley Brown
She may have support among Muslims but i think other progressives will just vote Greens so i dont think she will be relected or the party will survive post 2028 just like Rennick Peoples First party.
If the Gaza war’s still going in 2028, I wouldn’t discount her pulling one off, same with the inds in Watson and Blaxland. If not I reckon she hasn’t got a chance in hell.
@ Clarinet of Communists
I am not sure if Gaza War will be over in 2028. However, there will be no two state solution before then i think this conflict (not current war) will outlive the Climate Wars and the Russia-Ukraine War. It has lasted since 1948 before Menzies actually won a majority government. However, having said that i still dont think MVM candidate will be elected in Calwell, Blaxland or Watson as the Liberals will certainly not preference them ahead of Labor. The Greens will preference them but that is not enough.
However, the Greens can win Wills in 2028 if there is more violence in the Middle East. Demographics are getting better for the Greens in WIlls.
If the Greens can’t win back Melbourne and don’t win Wills then the Greens might’ve died.
@ Nether Portal
IMHO Greens have a better chance to win Wills than Melbourne in 2028. Peter Khalil is becoming unpopular but Sarah Witty may become popular as an MP as she is progressive etc. The other seat is Richmond they actually increased their primary vote and 3CP so they may eventually win with Justine Elliot retires.
Fatima Payman has a better chance in WA’s Legislative Council
@ Caleb
What is the quota to win an WA upper house seat?
Not many muslims in WA for Paymen to move to the upper house. Australians dont like extremism
37 members of the WA Legislative Council. Dividing straight into 100 that is 2.7% of the vote. Had a look at the WAEC site – Australia’s Voice did not run any candidates in either house.
@Nimalan and @Huxley Brown
The WA Legislative Council quota is [1/38th + 1 vote]. ie- 2.63% of the vote.
This is called the Droop formula. The general case being [1/(n+1) + 1 vote] with n being the number of vacancies in the election.
Thanks Ben
WA is 2.5% Muslim obviously that will include citizens and non-citizens but if she gets 1.6% primary she maybe able to be elected with surplus Greens just like Animal Justice vote was able to. At a federal level surplus Labor vote will probably go to Legalise Cannabis before Fatima Payman in 2028.
@Nimalan I think Richmond is one of those seats where they just won’t do it. Especially if hippie voters see through the Greens like other voters did and realised that their concerns would be better represented by a party like the Legalise Cannabis Party or a local independent.
@Kris I agree, Payman won’t get re-elected.
@ NP
You make a Great point that the Greens voter in Byron Bay is different they are just enviormentalists who love Surfing and smoking weed. Different from the Ecosocilaists in places like Brunswick, Newtown, Fitzroy, Collingwood, West End. The Greens voter in Byron Bay probably does not attend Pro-Palestine protests etc. Richmond is actually the least Muslim seat in the nation.
@Nimalan I was more so speaking about the areas around Byron. Byron itself has had a lot of people from those ecosocialist areas move up there so left-wing activism is somewhat present there but not to the extent of the suburbs you mentioned.
Byron Bay has plenty of surfers and most people born there die there too.
Very few hippies though, ex Rugby League footballers, plenty of them.
Greens voters are mostly women, no shortage in Byron.
Lived there years ago, never saw anyone smoking weed in any of the 3 pubs, or anywhere else.
It’s not a friendly town either.