ALP 11.2%
Incumbent MP
Lisa Chesters, since 2013.
Geography
Bendigo and surrounding parts of northwestern Victoria. Bendigo covers Greater Bendigo and Mount Alexander council areas, as well as parts of Campaspe, Mitchell and Macedon Ranges council areas. A majority of the population lives in Bendigo, and the other major town is Castlemaine.
Redistribution
Bendigo expanded to the east and north, taking in Pyalong, Tooborac and Rochester from Nicholls. These changes cut the Labor margin from 12.1% to 11.2%.
Bendigo is an original federation electorate. The seat has switched back and forth between the major parties over its long history.
Bendigo was first won in 1901 by Protectionist candidate John Quick. Quick was a Victorian colonial MP and a delegate to the Constitutional Conventions. Quick served as a member of Alfred Deakin’s third ministry in 1909, and held the seat until his defeat in 1913.
Bendigo was won in 1913 by prominent lawyer John Arthur, standing for the ALP. Arthur won re-election in 1914 and was appointed Minister for External Affairs in the third Fisher government, but quickly fell ill and died in December 1914, aged 39.
The 1915 Bendigo by-election was won by the ALP’s Alfred Hampson. Hampson remained loyal to the ALP when it split over the issue of conscription in 1916, but at the 1917 election he was challenged for his seat by Prime Minister Billy Hughes, who had switched from the ALP to the new Nationalist Party.
Hughes had been a member of the House of Representatives since federation, holding the seat of West Sydney. He had served as a minister in the Labor governments of Chris Watson and Andrew Fisher, before becoming Prime Minister in 1915 upon Fisher’s retirement.
Hughes held Bendigo until 1922, when he switched to the seat of North Sydney. At that election his party lost its majority, and the price of Country Party support for the Nationalist government was Hughes’ replacement as Prime Minister by Stanley Bruce.
Hughes remained in Parliament for another three decades. He served on the backbench through Stanley Bruce’s government, before leading a group of rebels in 1929 which saw Bruce lose his majority and then lose the following election. Hughes later served in ministerial roles and indeed as leader of the United Australia Party, and served as an MP until his death in 1952.
Bendigo was won in 1922 by Nationalist candidate Geoffrey Hurry, who defeated the Country Party’s Edmund Jowett, whose seat of Grampians had been abolished in the redistribution. Hurry held the seat until the 1929 election, when he lost his seat.
Bendigo was won in 1929 by Richard Keane, who was General Secretary of the Australian Railways Union. He only held Bendigo for one term, losing in 1931, but later was elected to the Senate in 1937. He served as a minister in the wartime Labor governments, and died in 1946 while on government business in Washington DC.
Eric Harrison of the United Australia Party won Bendigo in 1931. He was re-elected in 1934, and attempted to move to the new seat of Deakin in 1937, but failed to win preselection, and retired.
In 1937, Bendigo was won by the Country Party’s George Rankin. Rankin held the seat until 1949, when the redistribution changed Bendigo substantially, and he was successful in winning election to the Senate. He served in the Senate until he retired in 1955.
In 1949, the ALP’s Percy Clarey won Bendigo. Clarey had been a member of the Victorian upper house and a state minister, while also serving as President of the ACTU. Clarey held the seat until his death in 1960.
The 1960 by-election was won by the ALP’s Noel Beaton. He held the seat until he resigned in 1969, triggering another by-election. The second by-election was won by the ALP’s David Kennedy. Kennedy lost Bendigo in 1972, against the flow of an election where Gough Whitlam won power for the ALP.
The Liberal Party’s John Bourchier won Bendigo in 1972, and held it until 1983, when he lost to the ALP’s John Brumby.
Brumby was re-elected in 1984 and 1987, but lost in 1990. Brumby was elected to the Victorian Legislative Council at a by-election in 1993, and only four months later was elected Leader of the Victorian ALP and won a second by-election for a Legislative Assembly seat. Brumby served as Opposition Leader until early 1999, when he stepped aside for Steve Bracks. Brumby served as a senior minister in the Bracks government from 1999 until Bracks’ retirement in 2007, when Brumby was elected as Premier. Brumby served as premier for three years before losing the 2010 election, and retiring from Parliament.
Bruce Reid won Bendigo for the Liberal Party in 1990. He held the seat until 1998, when the ALP’s Steve Gibbons won the seat. Gibbons was elected in Bendigo six times, and retired in 2013.
Labor candidate Lisa Chesters won Bendigo in 2013, and has been re-elected three times.
Assessment
Bendigo is a safe Labor seat
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Lisa Chesters | Labor | 42,883 | 43.0 | -0.6 | 42.5 |
| Darin Schade | Liberal | 26,576 | 26.6 | -5.2 | 26.6 |
| Cate Sinclair | Greens | 14,026 | 14.1 | +3.2 | 13.9 |
| Ben Mihail | One Nation | 5,508 | 5.5 | -0.7 | 5.6 |
| James Laurie | Independent | 4,319 | 4.3 | +4.3 | 4.2 |
| Elijah Suares | United Australia | 3,579 | 3.6 | -0.7 | 3.6 |
| Matt Bansemer | Liberal Democrats | 2,888 | 2.9 | +2.9 | 3.0 |
| Others | 0.6 | ||||
| Informal | 3,764 | 3.6 | -0.5 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Lisa Chesters | Labor | 61,968 | 62.1 | +3.3 | 61.2 |
| Darin Schade | Liberal | 37,811 | 37.9 | -3.3 | 38.8 |
Booths have been divided into five areas. Polling places in the Mount Alexander and Macedon Ranges shires have been split up into two groups.
Polling places in the Greater Bendigo council area have been split into three groups. Those polling places in the Bendigo urban area have been split into “south” and “north”, with the remainder grouped as “Bendigo Rural”.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all five areas, ranging from 53.3% in Bendigo Rural to 72.9% in Mount Alexander.
The Greens primary vote ranged from 10.0% in Bendigo Rural to 27.6% in Mount Alexander.
| Voter group | GRN prim | ALP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Bendigo Rural | 10.0 | 53.3 | 11,994 | 11.7 |
| Bendigo South | 15.7 | 64.1 | 11,853 | 11.5 |
| Bendigo North | 12.6 | 66.5 | 7,687 | 7.5 |
| Mount Alexander | 27.6 | 72.9 | 6,482 | 6.3 |
| South-East | 18.1 | 59.8 | 4,207 | 4.1 |
| Pre-poll | 12.6 | 60.5 | 44,968 | 43.7 |
| Other votes | 12.2 | 60.0 | 15,649 | 15.2 |
Election results in Bendigo at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party and the Greens.
@Nimalan I agree and it’s paid off well. In NSW the Liberals were concerned with how close Holsworthy, Ryde and Terrigal were in 2023 and while it’s early days yet even after this landslide federally I’d tip the state MPs to be re-elected there.
The Liberals and Nationals now hold six seats each in NSW while in Victoria the Nats have three and the Libs have two. This is according to the ABC News website so it probably doesn’t include the seats that are still in doubt, but even then there’s only two seats in NSW still in doubt (Bradfield, where either the Libs or the independent will win, and Calare, where either Gee or the Nats will win) and in Victoria there’s only four where the Coalition could win (Bendigo, Casey, Goldstein and Monash).
The nats wont get close they all said.
I have to say the Nationals strategy was genius. The three seats they hold: Mallee, Nicholls, and Gippsland often have 15%+ margins over Labor. Labor will not even challenge for these electorates due to how conservative they are. This meant the Nationals were able to put extra resources into Bendigo with a high-profile candidate and lots of advertising, and the results speak for themselves. Honestly well done to them.
Thats the difference the Nats dont have to worry about losing seats in Victoria while the Libs had to worry about Deakin and in hindsight Aston which they lost based on 2022 general election results.
@Nimalan @James it’s the same with Nationals seats nationwide which is why I think they have more freedom.
Let’s look at the current situation:
Nationals seats in NSW and Victoria called by the ABC sorted into groups:
Marginal:
* Cowper (vs Independent)
Fairly safe:
* Page
Safe:
* Lyne
* Parkes
* Riverina
Very safe:
* Gippsland
* Mallee
* New England
* Nicholls
So of these seats, none of them have really any chance of going to Labor. Only two of them have margins of under 10% (Cowper which is against Caz Heise and Page which is currently at 9.9%).
So this means the Nationals can go all in in seats like this and in 2028 (or whenever the next federal election is given there’s no fixed terms for federal elections) they can go all in on getting Calare and Indi back whilst still defending Bendigo.
Also we can ignore the ABC’s estimate, it’s just less accurate as only a few polling places are reporting a TPP count according to the AEC:
Nationals TPP by booth:
* Bendigo PPVC: 50.9%
* Junortoun PPVC: 59.2%
* Other Mobile Team 1: 29.8%
* Special Hospital Team 1: 40.4%
* Special Hospital Team 2: 45.8%
* Special Hospital Team 3: 52.2%
* Special Hospital Team 4: 46.7%
* Postals: 52.7%
* Total: 53.0%
So according to the AEC, Bendigo is sitting at 53.0% for the Nationals and 47.0% for Labor. This would be a –14.2% away from Labor.
@ NP
Page may infact swing to Nats once the postals are in and go back to Double Digits. I wonder if the Nats should invite Andrew Gee back no that the voice is all over and it is time to move on anyway.
@Nimalan I think it’s up to him if he wants to rejoin. I think he should but I don’t think he will.
And yes Page will probably go to double digits as the count finalises with a possibility of swinging to the Nationals for the third time in a row.
Nats ahead by over 1,000 votes now according to ABC
I don’t think gee will be back it wasn’t just over the voice apparently there were deeper divisions and they were probably gonna boot him out over other stuff. The voice was just the last straw. He’s the new tony windsor, bob Katter, rob oakshott. He’ll be in there til he retires.
In regards to Bendigo I think that result is wrong and should tighten. The nats might come for Ballarat next. The libs managed a small swing despite the national mood. A cashed up nats might be able to put in more resources. Especially if their other seats remain safe
I have no idea how this result in Bendigo is so massively different to the rest of the country? Why? Just doesn’t really make sense.
I think Labor got complacent thinking that this seat would be fine, whereas the Nationals reportedly had 1 million dollars in their war chest to fight this battle. They really worked hard and put on a local angle for it. Also the Nationals in Victoria are not tarnished goods in the same way the useless Liberals are.
I think Labor will scrape through once preferences from Castlemaine and Kyneton comes through given they’ve got Greens coming second on primaries. Labor needs to sandbag and sandbag this hard come 2028 though, not to mention Bendigo East (and West) next year.
No New Zealand citizens voting in Bendigo, Lisa Chesters unpopular with Kiwis for some reason? Wild guesses, NP targeted this seat, so there must be something going on.
There is primary industry there, both mining and pastoral/agriculture, Labor hasn’t been interested in these people for a long while, perhaps the message is starting to sink in with their cousins in town?
Maybe the Nats should’ve tried for Monash too!
Id say there would have been some agreenment in place given the already complicated laundry list of candidates and the libs likely claimed it as an elected liberal seat despite switching candidates. Same libs didnt try in calare
Sounds like they weren’t sad to see Broadbent go. Wonthaggi seems an odd fit for a bloke committed to refugee rights
@Gympie what makes you think no Kiwis live here? I guarantee you there are Kiwis in every single corner of the country, even in remote Aboriginal communities or small rural towns I’m sure there’s at least one Kiwi.