LNP 3.1%
Incumbent MP
Terry Young, since 2019.
Geography
Moreton Bay region of Queensland. Longman covers the former Caboolture Shire and parts of the former Pine Rivers shire. The main towns in the seat are Caboolture, Morayfield, Burpengary and Narangba. The seat also covers a majority of Bribie Island.
History
Longman was created for the 1996 election. It was first won by Mal Brough. Brough held the seat from 1996 until 2007, during which time Brough served as a minister from 2001 and joined the Howard cabinet in 2006.
Brough was defeated in 2007 in one of the nation’s largest swings against a Coalition MP, with a 10.3% swing giving the seat to the ALP’s Jon Sullivan. Sullivan was previously the state member for Caboolture for nine years before losing to the One Nation candidate in 1998.
In 2010, Jon Sullivan was defeated by Liberal National candidate Wyatt Roy. Roy was elected at the age of 20 in 2010, and is the youngest ever member of the House of Representatives. Roy was elected to a second term in 2013. Roy lost in 2016 to Labor candidate Susan Lamb.
Lamb was forced to resign from parliament in early 2018 due to her late citizenship renunciation in 2016, but she was re-elected at the resulting by-election.
Lamb’s by-election success was not repeated in 2019, when she lost to Liberal National candidate Terry Young. Young was re-elected in 2022.
Assessment
Longman is a marginal LNP seat that could be in play if Labor’s support in Queensland picks up.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Terry Young | Liberal National | 41,253 | 38.2 | -0.4 |
| Rebecca Fanning | Labor | 34,036 | 31.5 | -2.6 |
| Ross Taylor | One Nation | 8,917 | 8.3 | -5.0 |
| Earl Snijders | Greens | 7,814 | 7.2 | +0.5 |
| Nigel David Quinlan | Legalise Cannabis | 6,025 | 5.6 | +5.6 |
| Stefanie Alexis Sutherland | United Australia | 5,949 | 5.5 | +2.2 |
| Paula Gilbard | Animal Justice | 2,060 | 1.9 | +1.9 |
| Jens Lipponer | Liberal Democrats | 2,011 | 1.9 | +1.9 |
| Informal | 5,677 | 5.0 | -0.9 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Terry Young | Liberal National | 57,359 | 53.1 | -0.2 |
| Rebecca Fanning | Labor | 50,706 | 46.9 | +0.2 |
Booths have been divided into four areas. Booths near Bribie Island have been grouped as Pumicestone. Booths in the remainder of the seat have been divided in three: from north to south, these are West, Caboolture-Morayfield and Burpengary.
The Liberal National Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in Pumicestone (55.5%) and the west (58.6%) while Labor won in the more populous Caboolture-Morayfield (53.9%) and Burpengary (51.6%). The LNP also won substantial majorities on the pre-poll and other votes which made up about two thirds of the total turnout.
| Voter group | LNP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Caboolture-Morayfield | 46.1 | 13,761 | 12.7 |
| Burpengary | 48.4 | 12,239 | 11.3 |
| Pumicestone | 55.5 | 5,531 | 5.1 |
| West | 58.6 | 4,227 | 3.9 |
| Pre-poll | 54.8 | 48,801 | 45.2 |
| Other votes | 54.5 | 23,506 | 21.8 |
Election results in Longman at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal National Party and Labor.
I. Am campaigning solely for the Senate. In fact there is not one House candddidte. That I. come close to supporting. It comes close to just eliminating the worst and working backwards
Therefore my order was
1 Family First Co ( however I hate their anti Christian economic policies
2 LNP just ahead of ALP
3 ALP
4 Trumpet of Patriots
5 One Nation ( if Roberts were standing on his own I would put him first but handing Hanson more money puts PHON down bottom. The unsubstantiated gossip that Roberts will once elected resign and be replaced by another PHON member eliminates Roberts from
A higher position.
And 6 Greens last. It takes A Com, Trotskyite or Uniformed NAZI to dislodge Greens from last spot.
@AndrewJackson – that must have been rough to have your clothes dyed with ink back in 1969!
I agree with you that polling can be a pleasant and interesting time. It occurs to me too that it is one of the rare occasions these days when people cross paths with others who they might otherwise not do so, having different schedules, hobbies and lifestyles etc. So it is valuable in that respect too.
And yes, I respect the people handling out the HTV cards or doing similar volunteer work. They are all trying to contribute to our democracy, and for that I salute them.
I’ve noticed Longman odds has tightened with Labor now listed at $3.50 on Sportsbet.
Pre polls being worked forcefully by LNP and effectively by ALP. ALP message is health care and Medicare with Libs talking cost of living and petrol
Pricing. Libertarians have manned booth all day 1 bloke – he deserves Rennick and Greens manning Morayfield most of day.
Queyues some of day but at other time voters can walk straight in.
Relationship on Booths Burpengary Good, Morayfield a bit strained but Satisfactory and Bribie Excellent.
Advance australia have no workers on any site but have erected Corflutes.
Absolutely no Trumpet of Patriots or Pauline Hanson anywhere in Longman so far. An allegation that Trumpet of Patriots have paid staff in Dickson but O have not seen them. ALP and LNP candidates visible during day.
This will probably Labor last chance for a while in this seat
I hope any paid Trumpet of Patriots workers get paid up front
Update on Morayfield two PHON turned up today . One wearing a high vis vest with Commonwealth Coat of Arms on front. I did not realise that the Common wealth had endorsed PHON.
@ John, Labor won’t win this seat. I don’t expect to see Labor win this or Petrie or Ford or Capricornia again for a very long time. All seats Labor once had.
If they can play the FMIA right, Capricornia could come back, but I agree it’s doubtful, these seats are generally trending to the right.
Looking at the votes in Pumicestone at the state election which was a narrow lnp win. This is similar to longman….. maybe just maybe
@ Mick this is classic White Working Class territory so if the LNP loses it will be so embrassing for Dutton. I still expect the LNP to win.
Nimalan. Longman is not working class on Bribie or most parts of it East of Bruce Highway. It is not White in in Caboolture. You are accurate for the Caboolture to Burpengary zone west of Highway. The other problem with labelling it White Working Class is that the electorate is that it is commuter working class . “Ute Man” rather than union man.
My prediction is Terry Young will retain seat for LNP but Dutton will need to clnvede Prime Ministership. Dutton is not popular anywhere and there have been many on the pre polls wanting to vote for Terry Young but not for Dutton. Liberal punters on pre polls have been using “Terry Young Gets things done” when handing HTV to pre poll voters. This is the message on the Dropped Shipping Container on the Bruce Highway and on Billboards. However what they say he is getting done are State Responsibilities not Commonwealth. Hospitals, Road interchanges, schools etc.
With Caboture West under construction he had better get things done much more quickly. The electorate is boom town demographically but not infrastuctionally.
Longman will get a hell of a lot smaller come this time next year
Should be a fairly easy LNP retain when the count is done.
@ Bumbalo, of the 6,000 postals counted so far LNP have clawed back 200 votes. There’s not that many votes left to be counted and Labor are still 300 votes ahead.
@Scott I hope you’re right but I’ve learned never to underestimate the LNP trend in late counting
LNP leading in Longman by about 100 votes
Looks like Absent & pre-poll to go. These were split 50-50 in 2022, with labor improvement in 2025 this could end up very, very close.
Wyatt Roy will be eyeing a comeback in 3 years.
Any predictions? Ben says that most postals here have been counted hence the LNP lead
If we go by 2022 splits on the remaining votes to come it’s probably Labor scraping in.
Probably one of the closest seats in the country.
Now the postals are done, LNP lead has been cut from 460 to 360. Is there enough votes left for the good guys to come back?
The good guys are already ahead, no comeback needed.
This will probably end up as the closest result in the election, at least for a conventional 2 candidate race, since the absents will cut the lead of 249 for Young currently but it’s unclear whether it will be enough.
149 will be enough for a full recount, which is better than nothing.
@Gympie not sure about that. Last time Gilmore was won by Labor by about 300 votes and the AEC refused to do a recount.
Not sure why but recounts tend to help the Coalition, like Bundaberg at the 2020 Queensland state election (Labor won but the margin was decreased to only nine votes) and Ryde at the 2023 NSW state election (Labor requested a recount but the Liberal lead only extended from 50 to 54 votes).
To answer why recounts tend to help the Coalition, I’d be interesting in knowing:
– Do recounts tend to increase or decrease the number of ballots considered informal?
– Do ballots that land in the grey area when it comes to formality skew towards one side of politics?
My limited experience is that LNP have trouble fielding scrutineers for all the booths, and the Party briefing beforehand is risible [imo], but Labor always have at least 2 who are on the ball.
So a vote could be called informal even if the will of the voter is arguably apparent, just because there’s no one there to make the case.
A recount is only automatic when the margin is under 100. Other then that they need to submit a formal request in writing exposing there reasons which the aec can either accept or reject.
@Nicholas, I’m not particularly sure but I do know that recounts at least recently have favoured the Coalition. Even if they’re not enough for them to win the seat the margin against Labor always seems to decrease. Recounts haven’t actually flipped seats in years though even though they’ve come quite close.
The last seat to be flipped by a recount was McEwen I believe
Did the LNP margin grow yesterday only on rechecks, or were there some absents and prepolls in it too?
Lead has been whittled back to 132 this morning. What may appear to be a silly question; what happens if there is a dead heat? Does the incumbent retain?
Perhaps it’s not a silly question, Ben’s latest model has labor winning by 0.5 of a vote.
The margin is now at 335 and there are only 765 votes left (plus whatever postals come in tomorrow and Friday). It would seem that this could be claimed for the LNP.
ABC has called it an LNP retain. Couldnt Labor still technically pull ahead (very very narrowly)?
To overcome a margin of 335 votes with 750 votes remaining, Labor would need ~72% of the remaining votes.
It is virtually impossible to win now. Labor will need at least 543 of the remaining 750 votes which means lib getting 207 would result in labor winning one vote. So yes 72.4% of the remaining votes.
Wonder how LNP retained this despite losing Leichhardt, Bonner, Forde, and Petrie on larger margins. ALP also won this in 2016 (unlike the previous 4 + Dickson).
Correction based on 765 votes labor would need 551 leaving the libs with 214 meaning labor would win by 2 votes with 72 % of the remaining votes. If labor got 550 – 215 it would result in a tie. In which Terry young would be reelected with the highest primary.
@gumball there are some better LNP voting booths here
@Bumbalo it’s a great question, especially given Forde is an LNP seat on state results.
So is Leichhardt too.
That is untrue, Darth. In the event of a tie, the Divisional Returning Officer must provide written notice to the Electoral Commissioner that the election cannot be decided. The notion that primary votes would be used as a tiebreaker is fantasy.
Section 277 (9c) of the Commonwealth Electoral Act of 1918.
https://www.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/cea1918233/s274.html
As for Leichhardt, this is the wrong thread, but to proclaim it is an LNP seat on state results is a bit misleading.
Yes, two of the three seats that make up Leichhardt turned blue in 2024, and no doubt you’ve done the aggregation that proved if replicated at a federal election the LNP would win, but:
1. Cairns has only voted non-Labor once in 100+ years
2. Barron River is the archetypal bellwether seat, and will likely flip when Queensland next flips in 2028 or 2032.
3. Cook has gone to the LNP just four times in the past 75 years: 1950, 1974, 2012 and 2024.
The notion that Leichhardt is an LNP on state results is misplaced. Rather, it can be more accurately described as a Labor seat but for the divine presence of one Mr W. Entsch, the only non-Labor candidate to win the seat in the past 45 years.
Also, the LNP candidate was hopeless.
The Commissioner then will refer the matter the Court of Disputed Returns. If it can’t determine a winner it will declare the election void and a new (by-)election will be held.
Looking at the results in neighbouring Petrie gives some clues.
The weakest swings to Labor in Petrie were in Deception Bay and the Redcliffe Peninsula. These areas swung similarly to Longman. These are also the lowest SES parts of Petrie. The rest of Petrie is significantly higher SES than Longman.
The results in Blair and Longman, viewed in comparison to the rest of the metropolitan area (and indeed the country) may give the slightest hint to Dutton’s outer suburban strategy working. (It just didn’t work anywhere near well enough.)
@Nether Portal, was Longman the only ALP seat on state figures which the LNP held federally this time?
@Real Talk- agree with you that Leichhardt is more friendly to ALP than last year’s state results or Entsch’s dominance would suggest. I wonder if Smith can build a substantial personal vote to hold this in most years.
@Nicholas- Interesting theory. Something else I noticed was that Longman voted 75% against the Voice. Of the 94 seats Labor won this time, none voted more than 72% against the Voice. Paterson, Blair, Hunter, Forde, Braddon, and Spence are the 6 Labor-won seats that went over 70% No.
On the other hand, the only Yes seats the Coalition won are Goldstein and Bradfield
@real tlak https://education.aec.gov.au/getvoting/content/instructions-counting.html#:~:text=In%20case%20of%20a%20tie,-If%20you%20have&text=The%20candidate%20who%20had%20the%20most%20first%20preference%20votes%20is,Run%20the%20election%20again