LIB 1.2%
Incumbent MP
Andrew Hastie, since 2015.
Geography
South of Perth. Canning covers urban fringe and rural areas to the south of Perth, including Mandurah and most of the Peel region. Canning covers the entirety of the Mandurah, Murray, and Waroona council areas, as well as parts of the Serpentine-Jarrahdale and Rockingham council areas.
Redistribution
Canning’s northern boundary was changed, losing Bedfordale, Roleystone, Martin and Karragullen to the new seat of Bullwinkel, and also losing Darling Downs and Oakdale to Burt. Canning gained Karnup, Secret Harbour and Singleton from Brand. These changes cut the Liberal margin from 3.6% to 1.2%.
History
Canning was first created for the expansion of the House of Representatives in 1949. For the early part of its history it was contested between the Liberal Party and the Country Party, and since the 1980s the seat has become much more of a Labor-Liberal marginal seat, usually being held by the party winning government.
The seat was first won in 1949 by Leonard Hamilton of the Country Party, who had previously held Swan since 1946.
Hamilton retired in 1961 and the seat was won by Liberal Neil McNeill, who was defeated by the Country Party’s John Hallett in 1963. Hallett held the seat until 1974, when the Liberal Party’s Mel Bungey defeated him.
The ALP’s Wendy Fatin won the seat in 1983 at the same time as the election of the Hawke government. Fatin transferred to the new seat of Brand in 1984, and the ALP’s George Gear transferred into Canning from Tangney, which he had held after the 1983 election.
Gear was defeated in 1996 by Liberal candidate Ricky Johnston, who had previously ran against Gear at every election since 1984. Johnston was defeated herself by Labor’s Jane Gerick in 1998.
Gerick was defeated narrowly by Liberal candidate Don Randall in 2001.
Randall held Canning for over a decade, winning re-election in 2004, 2007, 2010 and 2013. His narrow margin in 2001 blew out to 59.5% in 2004, shrinking to 52.2% in 2010 before growing out to 61.8% in 2013.
Randall died in early 2015, and the ensuing by-election was won by Liberal candidate Andrew Hastie. Hastie has been re-elected three times.
Assessment
Canning is very marginal but Hastie’s position should be more solid in current circumstances.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Andrew Hastie | Liberal | 41,294 | 43.8 | -5.3 | 41.6 |
| Amanda Hunt | Labor | 30,897 | 32.8 | +5.2 | 35.0 |
| Jodie Moffat | Greens | 7,659 | 8.1 | +0.6 | 8.3 |
| Tammi Siwes | One Nation | 4,215 | 4.5 | -2.6 | 4.6 |
| James Waldeck | United Australia | 2,438 | 2.6 | +0.3 | 2.7 |
| Brad Bedford | Western Australia Party | 2,202 | 2.3 | -0.5 | 2.4 |
| Ashley Williams | Independent | 1,708 | 1.8 | +1.8 | 1.6 |
| Andriette Du Plessis | Australian Christians | 1,689 | 1.8 | -0.2 | 1.5 |
| David Gardiner | Liberal Democrats | 749 | 0.8 | +0.8 | 0.8 |
| Anthony Gardyne | Federation Party | 628 | 0.7 | +0.7 | 0.7 |
| Judith Congrene | Informed Medical Options | 785 | 0.8 | +0.8 | 0.6 |
| Others | 0.3 | ||||
| Informal | 6,558 | 6.5 | +0.4 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Andrew Hastie | Liberal | 50,513 | 53.6 | -8.0 | 51.2 |
| Amanda Hunt | Labor | 43,751 | 46.4 | +8.0 | 48.8 |
Booths are split into four areas. About half of the seat’s population is in the Mandurah council area, and this area has been split into Mandurah North and Mandurah South, along the river. The remainder of the seat was split into north and south, with Murray and Waroona council areas in the south, and Rockingham and Serpentine-Jarrahdale council areas in the north.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in Mandurah South (53%) and the south (53.5%) while Labor won 52.2% in Mandurah North and 57.1% in the remaining north. The Liberal Party won in part because they won the pre-poll and other votes, which made up almost two thirds of the total vote.
| Voter group | GRN prim | LIB 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Mandurah North | 10.6 | 47.8 | 9,323 | 10.6 |
| North | 12.6 | 42.9 | 8,362 | 9.5 |
| Mandurah South | 9.9 | 53.0 | 6,236 | 7.1 |
| South | 6.9 | 53.5 | 5,910 | 6.7 |
| Pre-poll | 6.6 | 52.6 | 41,634 | 47.3 |
| Other votes | 9.0 | 52.4 | 16,559 | 18.8 |
Election results in Canning at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party and Labor.
At present, there are many seats where the major parties are still to have candidates selected.
This is the page for Jarrad Goold, the ALP candidate for Canning
https://walabor.org.au/pages/jarrad-goold-canning/
Liberal hold.
I believe the liberals have selected candidates in all the winnable seats. With the exception of qld but those are currently in the middle of preselection process. All other seats are not seats the Libs can win.
Jet program canc by alp canc
No costings
Andrew Hastie comments about women serving in the army have surfaced again. With the candidate dropped due to similar comments and given how at the current time when I write this comment the LNP seems to be struggling to cut with the general public. Comments like this and Andrew Hastie’s small margin aren’t going to assist here at all.
Hastings margyin will recover from the wa correction if they were gonna turf him out they would of done so in 2022
SpaceFish, if you seriously think that’s going to affect Hastie’s chances of winning, I have a bridge to sell you.
It’s not going to affect Hastie’s chances of winning but it’ll deal a blow to any ambitions he may have to lead the Libs after Dutton. The Libs might be looking to knife Dutton post-election after a disastrous month of being in the spotlight.
Dan m it will depend on how well he does at the election. If he can get close like Tony Abbott they will keep him on
The redistribution didn’t help Hastie here. If Canning gets pulled any further into Rockingham council he’ll really be sweating.
It’s not that long ago that Brand went all the way down to the Mandurah Estuary – there’s been a serious population boom round here, mainly in Baldivis but also in the suburbs straddling the Rockingham / Mandurah council border.
Noticed on Andrew Hastie’s FB that Tony Abbott has been making a few visits here with him in the past two days. Do the Liberals think they might be in danger here?
If Tony Abbott is the answer, I don’t want to know what the question is.
It could be just two good mates hanging out.
According to William Bowe’s Bludger Track, there’s pretty much no swing in WA. However, it hides the predicted swings between regions. Labor may get swings to them in their own seats or the inner-city whilst suffer swings elsewhere.
I don’t think Labor is targeting Canning. Their focus seems to be retaining Bullwinkel and maybe winning Moore.
Hattie has a good reputation
Hastie
Is Hastie a leadership candidate if Dutton loses?
The shadow front bench is dominated by senators. There’s little HOR members to choose from. Ley, Taylor, Tehan, Sukkar, McIntosh, Coleman… Hastie seems like the standout.
@LNPinsider
Woulkd the thinkin be that Labor will crash and burn by 2028 and the next Liberalo leader is a lay down misere to become PM.
On the late preselection in Griffith, do you know whether it was contested?
Because of the declared candidates, this is the smallest number for many years and Labor would be heavily depending on Green preferences to get them over the line and vice versa.
Woulkd the thinkin be that Labor will crash and burn by 2028 and the next Liberalo leader is a lay down misere to become PM.
@Gympie
I’m kind of over these predictions. Because there not based on anything but bias and cheerleading. How do you know that will happen? How do you know what the issues will be? We have seen things change with the polling and issues with this election campaign. And Gympie your not the only one to do it, but your assumptions are not based on anything except bias.
Hastie would seem the only possible leadership option should Dutton lose. Sussan Ley was descibed by Michelle Grattan as ‘scatty’, Angus Taylor is somewhere between lazy and shallow, Tehan might be unemployed on May 4, Micheal Sukkar is an unelectable toad and David Coleman is invisible (but probably pretty able). After that it is slim pickings in the Reps.
That’s what I mean Redistributed. Several of the key portfolios and talent are Senators (Hume, Paterson Duniam, Price (yes wrong party room), Ruston). Even someone not on the front bench such as Bragg or Sharma are senate.
Price has given a speech just today declaring she wants to “make Australia great again”, pouring petrol on the bonfire of opinion that Dutton is copying the Trump playbook. She has expended her usefulness to the campaign with that comment.
If I was Hastie, I would be thinking that my leadership run should come after whoever comes after Dutton (if Dutton goes after the election). He’s still only 42.
Hastie has a good reputation he is possibly the only competent sucessor to
Dutton
Honestly I can see David Coleman getting up given his surprise promotion to Foreign Affairs. Andrew Hastie might have a bit of baggage from recent events, he’d be better off waiting for now.
How is Hastie a good replacement. He was only a junior officer (i.e. Captain) and had 15 years experience in the Army. You normally get promoted to Major by 10 years. He is also very conservative and seems to be kept quiet for this election.
@bird I doubt it I read somewhere a while ago after the redistribution that the member for brand said that some of the new people in canning would have voted for Hastie in 2022 if they could have. Rockingham is a key military area so obvio husky there are defence votes there and his past as a serving member will help him. Hasties vote should recover after 2022. Once WA corects oher the next cycle they should sure up their margin here.
Angus Taylor would have ambitions too. Usually the treasurer is the most sought after position after leader. So only someone with the right numbers can get that job. And it’s usually a factional deal as seen in the past. Hawke/Keating Howard/Costello Albanese/Chalmers
Also labor don’t seem to be actively targeting this seat despite the low margin
As someone who prefers to see a Moderate as leader, my preference would be Coleman. I think the party would end up choosing Hastie though.
Pls Angus as Dutton’s successor. .but he will be blamed for his role as shadow treasurer in any post election review
Yes I agree but he didn’t get to be treasurer by accident.
Hastie did make a bizarre entry into the Trump tariff brouhaha, suggesting Australia offer the Orange Loon a critical minerals deal. Afaik, these minerals aren’t rare, just the environmental degradation from digging up a processing them is something few nations want to sign up to.
Anyway, Trump backflipped on the tariffs, everyone’s now on 10% except China on 145%.
So, Hastie exposed as a policy lightweight prepared to negotiate a clean environment for a mess of pottage.
more on Andrew Hastie comments with appearing to write a hit piece on him, I’m curious to know why 9 news seem to be targeting him also it’s not going to look good if Andrew Hastie is digging in. I’m not in any way suggesting this seat will flip but could have a negative impact on other Labor held seats in WA that the LNP need to pick up especially how the Liberals seem to be struggling with professional women voters at the moment.
Apparently Hastie is covering the Liberal branding on his signs in his electorate.
@Real Talk,
Seriously, that’s not good at all.
@Real Talk April 23, 2025 at 5:39 pm
That seems to be quite odd… Hastie has a decent profile (as the Shadow Minister of Defence) and has been gaining some attention. Not to mention that overlapping state results (even though not fully translatable into Federal results) should be encouraging for him considering the Liberals managed to regain Murray-Wellington.
I wonder what might’ve caused him to distance himself from the Liberals and go low profile. I doubt it was his embarrassing “Ukraine style Minerals deal with America” because if it was, any actions would’ve been taken back then and not now.
It’s not ‘new’ news – The Australian reported on it more than a week ago after Patrick Gorman called Hastie an “independent” for not running Liberal logos (or very small ones) on his material. Hastie argued back that everyone in the electorate knows he’s a Liberal, and that Gorman has done the same thing with some of his material too.
Before Andrew Hastie is considered for leadership, might want to work up the ranks to a more senior role like foreign affairs or deputy leader.
The comments about women in the ADF were made on the Bolt Report in 2018. He might’ve changed his tune since then or misspoke back then. I’m not sure. If the coalition loses the election, there will be talk about how they need to win back working (civillian) women. His comments on the Bolt Report would have the potential to come back and bite.
It is highly likely that Hastie neither misspoke in 2018 or has changed his views on the matter since this
this could become interesting
far less likely to fall than moore but if the ALP gains moore this is next up
hastie a presumably strong incumbent but you never know on a small margin and the liberal brand still evidently very on the nose in WA if hastie has to cover liberal branding on his signage.
could throw up a surprise on the night but backing hastie to narrowly retain
I think the Liberals are ok with the outer suburban electorates and the gains in Labor’s standing are in their own seats. In other words, they’re sandbagging well. Yes, this could an election night surprise given its low margin.
I think Andrew Hastie is worried about his seat, which is why he has been missing during the campaign. He refused to appear on the 7:30 report after the Liberals announced their defense policy, which is a curious move. Canning or Moore is not getting that much interest from the political commentators despite the tight margins. But for all the touting about Tangney, the odds for Labor are now stronger than the Liberals in Canning or Moore.
Is Hastie trying to distance himself from Dutton for a possible leadership challenge post election
Probably not a challenge, Nimalan, as Dutton will presumably resign rather than be challenge, but certainly more likely to be wanting to establish himself deeply and clearly locally so that he doesn’t have to worry so much about the seat in the future, and also not have any real baggage from this campaign.
It depends one of 3 things.
1. Dutton wins or gets close in which case he gets reelected
2. Dutton fails miserably in which case he resigns and doesn’t contest.
3. Dutton loses his seat.
Either way there won’t be a challenge against Dutton
I think if the libs make a small number of gains, just tipping Labor into minority but not being a shot to form government themselves, there might be a contest which he’d contest.
Yeah i think what Clarinets of Communists stated is a 4th Scenario when Libs makes a small amount of net gains and just tips Labor into minority say 72-74 seats for Labor is when it is debatable whether Dutton will continue in such as case Hastie/ a challenger may wait a year before challenging. That is the greyzone. If Dutton gets close to the same number of seats like Abbott did in 2010 then i think he will continue as leader.
I don’t think Hastie has leadership plans so soon. As I pointed out a couple of weeks ago, he’s only 42. If he was looking to become leader sooner rather than later, I think he’d be deepening his national profile right now, rather than spending so much time in his seat and avoiding the national spotlight. I think he’d be happy to let Taylor, Tehan and Coleman battle it out for the time being.
I think everyone knows that he will most likely be leader one day. But that means he has to check his timing.
Dutton mastered Albanese in QT and built the Liberal rabble from 2022 into a credible alternative government.
No one else looked like worrying Labor, so even if he lost a coupla seats, why swap him out?
However, i’d say Dickson is very likely to fall to the Climate 200 candidate and there isn’t much Dutton can do about that.
Hastie appears to be running as not-a-Lib. Makes sense, considering how degraded the Lib brand has become. He’s also trying not to be seen with Dutton. This is also clever campaigning. Dutton has been campaigning against himself for months. Hastie is improving his prospects by staying as far away from Dutton as possible. Nonetheless, if there is any kind of swing to Labor then Canning is a seat that should fall.