Wannon – Australia 2022

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  1. This seat will be interesting to watch as populations swell along the cost & in Ararat this could make this seat marginal in future elections.

  2. There is likely too much conservative rural territory, with enough of the seat`s population, that that is unlikely. The lower density/smaller built up area living may also increase conservative political views among sea change and tree change voters, particularly if they move to the more conservative rural areas.

  3. That’s an interesting theory, Tom the first and best – where a voter live influences how they vote, even when they have relocated from other areas bring different past voting history. Any evidence??

  4. Tom the first and best I kinda get it, although its the voters and not the areas they reside in. When we look at the typical Australian swing voter, it’s likely to be a mid-fourties blue-collar middle-class white man. An example I could think of where demographics and votes are roughly the same are Cottesloe and Dunsborough in WA, both being wealthy, well-known beachside areas, with high levels of affluence and the same demographics. For both areas the vote is (around) 60% Lib, 20% Green, 15% Labor. Having been to these areas multiple times, they both have the quaint seaside vibe, terrible parking situations, and far too many cafes. I would consider both areas small-L liberal areas, given the high non-religious percentage (42% in Dunsborough). Will they swing? Given the state election, probably not.

  5. actually South West Coast and Polwarth came close last time, Sorry but Henry Bolte territory is not safe blue anymore. It really is becoming more competitive, Labor could very well flip both state seats next year. If you want a conservative region of victory look at the Mildura and the Gippsland and Shepperton. THOSE are what i’d call safe conservative areas in the state.

  6. The Liberals won Polwarth on primaries in an election where they copped a belting. Not sure that signifies “Labor getting close”….perhaps you may be getting mixed up with the post-redistribution margin (which added a bunch of territory that mostly overlaps with Corangamite, not Wannon)?

  7. State figures were ultra Marginal in Ripon………Polwarth 6% and South West coast 2 to 3 % all liberal…. boundary Changes boost the alp vote in the first two by 3%. . The last 2 plus Hamilton make up most of Wannon.
    Historically Wannon has averaged 60/40 in… the Liberal party’s favour post Malcolm Fraser. To Win here Labor needs a vote of 55% plus in the big towns……. they are not getting that. Where they do win the big towns,,,,,,, and that is not everywhere the vote is close to 50/50. The Boundary Changes have helped the liberals by less than 1% in Wannon. That said there is a slow drift to Labor in this seat…… and the Surf Coast Area which is now in Wannon will make the drift in this seat stronger

  8. Labor admittedly won a few booths here in 2019, but none of them were particularly large. They won Ararat, Dereel, Halls Gap, Napoleons, Portland Central, Portland North Central, Ross Creek, the external Sebastopol EVC, Smythesdale and Snakes Valley. They had a decent swing against them in Warrnambool and Hamilton (2-5%) while Colac didn’t really swing much. In the rest of the booths they either went slightly towards or against Labor, however these booths were smaller and didn’t affect the result as much, and that’s why the swing was only 1.23% to Dan Tehan.

  9. https://www.tallyroom.com.au/aus2022/wannon2022/comment-page-1#comment-755343

    Voters in rural and regional areas are more likely to vote conservative than urban voters. I suspect this is because of rural areas requiring greater self-reliance than urban areas, the social structures in regional areas, the lower population densities lessening the need for rules preventing some activities and city versus country identity politics. All of these are location based, so it stands to reason that there is a reasonable chance that some voters who move are likely to form more conservative voting patterns over time (not necessarily becoming swing voters, some would likely move from being swing voters to conservative voters).

  10. Apart from the area shared with Ripon (and any of the area of Kara Kara* not part of Ripon), the ALP has not won any of the area of Wannon since the 1970 state election (when they had Country Party preferences).

    They have come close in the ALP high watermark elections of 2002 and 2018 in South West Coast. However, the recent state redivision it proposing to move some more conservative territory to South West Coast, from Polwarth. Polwarth is looking like it loose more of its conservative eastern territory to South West Coast in the next redivision as Torquay grows (now within Polwarth). Polwarth is likely to become less conservative and South West Coast more conservative.

  11. Ryan, they do okay. About 50-60% Liberal combined in Portland, Port Fairy and Warrnambool. We’re not talking Airey’s Inlet type numbers here….

    That’s more than enough to hold their own given most of the rest of the seat is strong for them.

  12. The seat will continue to shrink with more of the rural territory going into Mallee, this could really benefit ALP in future elections.

  13. Some really bad assumptions being made here. A bit of growth in the Geelong/Surf Coast region is not going to greatly alter the sheer size, nor the political complexion, of Wannon.

  14. Now that places like Anglesea and Winchelsea are in a safe Liberal seat, it will be interesting to see if the Labor vote drops off when there are fewer resources allocated to an unwinnable seat.

  15. Dyson’s vote impressive and he didn’t just take them from Labor and the Greens. Maybe the new coastal areas would be good terrain for him as a Voices candidate, could he get ahead of Labor? Liberal primary isn’t that high. Unlikely I know but people are getting excited about Goldstein where Libs had higher primary vote and Voices candidate has never been tested.

  16. Wanton post 1955 has stayed 60/40 2pp most times…. Labor is competitive in most large towns except Colac and Hamiliton . But where they win in larger towns it tends to be very close.max 52% 2pp they of course lose in smaller towns and in-between…. maybe the key to this is through the state level .. wins in Polwarth south West Coast and Ripon and Labor mps build personal vote . Plus boundary changes eg moving Hamilton out of Wannon.. but this is in the medium to longer term


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