Reid – Australia 2022

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  1. A potential labor gain, however I find western Sydney has been improving for the liberal party so it could remain with the liberal party. Labor should target eastern Melbourne as Victoria as a whole is leaning more labor then liberal recently.

  2. Reid is not really ‘Western Sydney’, politically, culturally or geographically. In reality, it is part of the gentrifying Inner West. Underlying demographics are typical of the wealthy voters who toyed with switching to Labor, hence the swing to them at the last election.

    I still remember everyone predicting a Labor gain here at the last election. Again, the margin is simply too large for Labor to overcome.

  3. Wreathy of Sydney
    Not everyone mate !. And i was a Sam Crosby fan, & backer. Ben even put me into moderation for defending him. One of my predictions was that he would achieve “a credible swing of 2% ” dead on. We will find out just how influential he was . I’ll predict an underlying swing back to Fiona Martin of around 3-5%. i say underlying because it’s unclear how much, & permanently Morrison has damaged the libs.

    The rest i agree with
    cheers wd

  4. There are seats like Reid which will be interesting to watch. We the current COVID outbreak who knows what will happen. People are not happy with the Commonwealth or State Governments regardless of polls. Possible Labor gain.

  5. Apologies WD, you’re quite right – almost everyone!

    As I recall, I think you were one of the only people to predict the overall Coalition win too.

  6. It’s amazing how people think the outbreak will cause political damage to Gladys/Morrison when we had a similar situation in Victoria last year which did nothing of the sort. As I recall, Andrews didn’t really suffer any long-term damage from the constant outbreaks and lockdowns. Of course, it depends on how long this one lasts.

    Even at the worst, I don’t rate Labor’s chances very highly here.

  7. James
    Sorry not even a toss up. A dark horse even if labor win. & that won’t happen.

    Wreathy of Sydney
    Sorry can’t take credit for coalition win prediction. I PREDICTED LABOR/INDEPENDENT GREEN minority govt IIRC 72-76 LABOR seats. However everyone else was saying 80-85. IIRC you did better
    cheers WD

  8. I can’t see the libs losing here although lockdown is having short term effects as stated above in Victoria the effects don’t last forever, still undecided whether it’ll be a small swing for or against the government but they should definitely hold their ground around concord and other areas near the water. As Albo himself said on election night on channel 9, high real estate near water is not you traditional labor voter.

  9. This part of Sydney – especially the Canada Bay suburbs – has evidently changed a lot over the decades. The former Division of Lowe covered roughly the same area and was usually held by Labor.

    It’s even more pronounced at the state level, with Drummoyne district having been held by Labor from 1962 to 2011, with a peak 2PP of Labor 73.8% in the 1981 “Wranslide”. Even in 2003 and 2007, it was “fairly safe” seat for Labor. Now it’s a Liberal seat safer than Epping, Lane Cove, or Manly!

  10. I was busy on election night, but if Albo said that, and ALP are indeed limiting their successes to “traditional labor voters”, then it may well be a long time before ALP wins again. I just looked at AEC and all the Drummoyne booths swung to ALP in 2019 and so did Abbotsford. Swings varied across the seat of course, but is doesn’t look to me like it was lost “on the waterfront” – you don’t have to win every booth – just the ones you lose, don’t lose by too much.

    Coming across the water – have a look at the Greenwich and Wollstonecraft 2019 results – have a look at McMahons point. Waterfront or water side suburbs doesn’t equal automatic Liberal big margins.

  11. Yes, It will be a long time. They will never win government again. The coalition will stay in power even longer than the record 23 years in power under Menzies.

    The voters of Reid don’t care about the failures of this government. They want to know how the alternative (Labor) will be better for them and their families. And so far Labor has failed to prove themselves that they would be a better government let alone better at managing the pandemic. Glady’s can get her fair share of the blame for NSW but Morrison is Prime Minister. Not Premier.

    Obviously the state area is much more Liberal leaning than the federal area but this seat and Banks will not flip at next years election. I don’t even think Plibersek could do it.

    This seat will be called when polls close. It won’t even be a contest. The Liberals will probably be able to govern in their own right if they wanted to at this stage (even though they won’t they could) The 53-47 poll to Labor is bullcrap, these are the same polls that had them well up before the last election. People just don’t want to tell the pollsters that they prefer the coalition over Labor, The more Labor leads in the polls the less they will learn because Albo is likely looking at the polls and saying that because he’s ahead Labor is on the right track. Well I can’t wait to see your concession speech in May 2022.

    Liberal retain 6-8% swing

  12. Good luck with that Daniel – you will be “right” in your belief that it is legitimate to disbelieve the polls right up until you are wrong. Maybe you will be proved right again in 2022 – but if you know anything about polling error, you will appreciate that the any error in this coming election is not correlated with the error in the last.


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