Reid – Australia 2022

LIB 3.2%

Incumbent MP
Fiona Martin, since 2019.

Geography
Inner Western Sydney. Reid covers suburbs along the southern shore of Parramatta River from Drummoyne to Homebush Bay. It covers the City of Canada Bay and parts of Auburn, Burwood and Strathfield council areas. Major suburbs are Drummoyne, Five Dock, Croydon, Homebush, Strathfield and Burwood.

History
The seat of Reid was created for the 1922 election, while Lowe was created as part of the expansion of the Parliament in 1949. Reid had been held by either the ALP or Jack Lang’s Labor breakaway parties for its entire history, while Lowe had a history of alternating between the ALP and Liberal Party. Since the two seats were effectively merged in 2010, Reid has gone to the party of government.

The seat of Reid was first won in 1922 by Labor candidate Percy Coleman. Coleman was re-elected in 1925, 1928 and 1929, but at the 1931 election he was defeated by Joseph Gander, candidate for Jack Lang’s breakaway NSW Labor Party. Gander was re-elected as a Lang Labor candidate in 1934 before rejoining the ALP when Jack Lang reconciled with the federal ALP.

Gander was re-elected as an official ALP candidate in 1937, but in 1940 Jack Lang again split away from the ALP, but with less of his former supporters in NSW following him. Gander followed Lang out of the ALP, but lost at the 1940 election to official ALP candidate Charles Morgan.

Morgan held the seat until the 1946 election, when Jack Lang himself ran in Reid and defeated Morgan. Lang was a former NSW Premier who had led a breakaway Labor party in NSW on a number of occasions.

The 1949 election saw the creation of the new seat of Blaxland, and Lang ran in that seat unsuccessfully. Morgan regained Reid in 1949, holding it until 1958.

Charles Morgan was defeated for ALP preselection by Tom Uren before the 1958 election. Morgan ran as an independent, but was defeated comfortably by Uren.

Uren served as Minister for Urban and Regional Development in the Whitlam government. He served as a Deputy Leader of the ALP from 1976 to 1977, and became the leading figure in the ALP’s left in the late 1970s. He opposed Bob Hawke’s leadership and thus was excluded from Cabinet when Hawke was elected Prime Minister in 1983. He served as a junior minister for four years before moving to the backbench in 1987.

Uren retired at the 1990 election, and was succeeded by Laurie Ferguson, who had been the state member for Granville since 1984. Ferguson has held Reid since 1990.

Lowe was first created for the 1949 election, when it was won by William McMahon (LIB). McMahon was elevated to Robert Menzies’ ministry in 1951, serving in a variety of portfolios over the next fifteen years. Upon Menzies’ retirement in 1966 McMahon became Treasurer in Harold Holt’s cabinet.

When Harold Holt disappeared in December 1967 McMahon was the presumptive successor, but Country Party leader John McEwen refused to serve with McMahon as Prime Minister. McMahon withdrew and Senator John Gorton was elected leader and moved to the House of Representatives.

McMahon served as Gorton’s Foreign Minister, but challenged Gorton for the leadership following the 1969 election unsuccessfully. In 1971 McEwen retired and Gorton’s leadership was undermined by the resignation of Malcolm Fraser from the cabinet. Gorton called a party meeting, and the ballot was tied between Gorton and McMahon, which led to Gorton’s resignation and McMahon’s election as leader and Prime Minister.

McMahon led the Coalition into the 1972 election, and was defeated by Gough Whitlam’s Labor Party. McMahon served in Billy Snedden’s shadow cabinet up to the 1974 election, and then served as a backbencher until his retirement in 1982.

Lowe had been marginal for most elections during McMahon’s service, particularly since the 1961 election. He had only held the seat with a 1.1% margin at the 1980 election, and a swing of 9.4% swing saw Labor candidate Michael Maher win the seat at the 1982 by-election, one year before Bob Hawke defeated Malcolm Fraser at the 1983 election. Maher was a state MP for Drummoyne from 1973 until the 1982 by-election.

Maher was reelected in 1983 and 1984, but was defeated in 1987 by Bob Woods (LIB). Woods was reelected in 1990, and defeated in 1993 by Mary Easson (ALP). Woods was appointed to the Senate in 1994 and served as a Parliamentary Secretary in the Howard government’s first year before resigning from the Senate in 1997 following allegations of abuse of parliamentary privilege.

Easson only held Lowe for one term, losing her seat in the 1996 landslide to Liberal candidate Paul Zammit, who had been a state MP for first Burwood and then Strathfield from 1984 until 1996. Zammit resigned from the Liberal Party in protest at aircraft noise in 1998 and contested the 1998 election as an independent, polling 15%. The seat was won in 1998 by the ALP’s John Murphy, who held the seat until 2010.

In 2010, John Murphy was re-elected in the redrawn seat of Reid, while former Member for Reid Laurie Ferguson moved to the seat of Werriwa.

Murphy lost to Liberal candidate Craig Laundy in 2013 with a 3.5% swing. Laundy was re-elected in 2016, and retired in 2019.

Liberal candidate Fiona Martin won Reid in 2019.

Candidates

  • Sally Sitou (Labor)
  • Sahar Khalili-Naghadeh (Fusion)
  • Edward Walters (One Nation)
  • Natalie Baini (Independent)
  • Andrew Cameron (Liberal Democrats)
  • Fiona Martin (Liberal)
  • Jamal Daoud (United Australia)
  • Charles Jago (Greens)
  • Assessment
    Reid is a very marginal seat, although Martin as a first-term MP will likely benefit from a new personal vote.

    2019 result

    Candidate Party Votes % Swing
    Fiona Martin Liberal 45,288 48.3 -0.5
    Sam Crosby Labor 34,872 37.2 +0.9
    Charles Jago Greens 7,575 8.1 -0.4
    Keith Piper Christian Democratic Party 2,335 2.5 -1.6
    Rohan Laxmanalal Animal Justice 1,861 2.0 +2.0
    Young Lee United Australia Party 1,797 1.9 +1.9
    Informal 6,119 6.1 +1.2

    2019 two-party-preferred result

    Candidate Party Votes % Swing
    Fiona Martin Liberal 49,844 53.2 -1.5
    Sam Crosby Labor 43,884 46.8 +1.5

    Booth breakdown

    Booths in Reid have been split into three parts. “East” covers booths in the former Drummoyne council area. “South” covers booths in the Burwood, Strathfield, Cumberland and Inner West council areas. “North-West” covers booths in the former Concord council area and the Parramatta council area.

    The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in the north-east (54.3%) and the north-west (54.4%) while Labor won 51.2% in the south.

    Voter group GRN prim % LIB 2PP % Total votes % of votes
    North-West 7.3 54.4 22,112 23.6
    South 7.7 48.8 20,436 21.8
    North-East 8.7 54.3 16,882 18.0
    Pre-poll 7.8 54.8 22,153 23.6
    Other votes 9.8 53.9 12,145 13.0

    Election results in Reid at the 2019 federal election
    Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party and Labor.

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    178 COMMENTS

    1. In response to a previous post, I had the privilege of living in Point Cook for nearly three years between 2017 and 2020. I don’t think there’s a suburb like it in Sydney at all. The suburb itself is quite large, with very separate communities within the suburb. There are, at last count, at least six different shopping complexes with a supermarket, and depending where you live within Point Cook, it is either a brilliant place to live, or a nightmare. My experience with Point Cook was that it could be both.

      The politics of Point Cook are fascinating. The area compared to other suburbs nearby isn’t as solidly Labor-voting. There are a variety of factors involved which I won’t bore people with, but I do know that the Liberal Party have invested some time and effort out here in recent elections, and that there are potentially strong independents in the area.

      As for Reid, I think it’s a total toss-up. Would be leaning Labor.

    2. All demographics in Melbourne lean more toward the ALP than the relevant demographic in NSW, and this includes immigrants and CALD communities.

    3. There’s also not as much growth through newly built high density apartments outside the CBD area in Melbourne compared to Sydney with areas such as Olympic Park/Wentworth Point, Mascot etc. The closest thing would be the developments in Box Hill but the enrolments there seem to be declining. I do find it interesting since the Liberal vote in Melbourne CBD is a lot weaker than in the CBDs of other major cities. The strongest areas for the Liberals in the Melbourne CBD vicinity would be Docklands and Southbank which are dominated by newly built high rise apartments. Perhaps there is a link there between such growth and voting patterns.

    4. From the perspective that Docklands is comparable to Wentworth Point, it is quite extraordinary that Docklands votes for the Greens at all.

    5. @ Dan M
      I would say Melbourne CBD is not very affluent and tends to have more international students/pink collar workers etc. https://www.abs.gov.au/census/find-census-data/quickstats/2016/206041122. Compare that to median income in Southbank or the St Kilda Road area which is much more affluent being close to Parklands and being leafier. In Macnnmara/Albert Park (state level), there has been a long term increase in the Liberal Vote. Look at the Sandridge booth compare the 2004 to 2019 result. It seems the Beacon Cove development etc has benefited the Libs here. Its really only St Kilda/Elwood that is is the bedrock of the progressive vote.

    6. Interesting that Baini has been attacking Fiona Martin for not being conservative enough yet is directing preferences to Labor. Just goes to show her real grievance is thwarted personal ambition.
      I don’t expect her to do particularly well but if her voters follow the how to vote card it could make the difference in a seat that is bound to have a tight margin.

    7. The Lib Dems also preferencing Labor over LNP. Could be a few thousand more flow-on votes if they find a halfway home for Christian Dem orphans and UAP pass-throughs. Martin may also get a bit of blowback from the more conservative ethnic voters for crossing the floor on the religious discrimination bill. Then again, the recent Neves wedging might have negated that memory. Sitou is a good candidate (Crosby was too and Labor worked hard and long)…but sometimes I think Labor forgets that in all of these Western Sydney seats, even inner-ish ones like this, candidate social conservatism tends to out-factor candidate quality (and ‘mere’ ethnic alignment) as a ‘pull’ factor. Personally I think Labor would have done better to fire Kristina Kenneally at this seat and put someone else in the gimme. Much better fit for her demographically, less drama for the party in Fowler (and risk of blowback)…I think she would have walked this seat home and locked it in as a ‘new Labor’ seat for yonks. Because Reid is something of a ‘sentiment’ pivot/divide between inner elites and ornry Orstralians on Culture War stuff. (The SSM numbers went: Sydney 84% yes, Grayndler 80% yes, Reid 53% yes…then Watson 70% no, Parramatta 62% no, Blaxland 74% no.) You need to be both conspicuously religious and professionally accomplished, modern…makes the seat a split point on ScoMo’s palatability/popularity, too. He could get away with campaigning in Drummoyne, South Stratty, Cabarita. Not so much in Lidcombe, Burwood and WW Point (tres hipster).

      It will be super-intriguing on the night. The Libs will fancy a swing their way, I reckon…as part of a ‘miracle’ reprise along similar lines to 2019, ie under-estimated social conservative instincts by the political classes. OTOH if Labor has matched the LNP under-the-radar & SM targeted micro-campaigning that was so successful for ScoMo & Co last time…they could as easily grab it. One thing you’d suspect: if Labor can’t reclaim it this time, they’ll struggle to do so going forward. By 2025 it’ll be a seat I think will be more likely to go teal than back to red, if it has had enough of blue by then.

    8. The commentary on this thread had been particularly informative – and fascinating… (really wish my new electorate of Kingsford Smith was this interesting). Thanks Tallyroomers, and good to see Jack Robertson here too (love your work, Jack)

      I have a question…

      LJ Davidson – you’ve clearly “got the knowledge”, and right at the start of this thread, way back in November, you mentioned that previous Federal Labor candidate (and present long-time Canada Bay Mayor) Angelo Tsirekas was “expelled from the ALP”. Care to elaborate? I know he left the party and stood as an independent at the last the council election, and romped home once again as Mayor, but I didn’t know the split up had been acrimonious… It’s hardly as if dining with developers (current ICAC allegations) is a problem for Labor, surely!

      And, testing your local knowledge further – what on earth has happened to ICAC’s investigation into Drummoyne State Lib MP John Sidoti’s own chumminess with people who build tall buildings? It’s well over a year since his case was heard, but no findings have been announced. Sidoti has been sidelined from the Liberal Party longer than he’s been an MP almost, though clearly the minority LNP government needs his vote.

      Tsirekas’ and Sidoti’s rivalry was the stuff of legends. What’s intriguing here that a man whose support the government desperately needs has his ICAC case seemingly forgotten, while in the meantime his Labor opponent gets done…

      Oh yeah, my prediction for May 21: Lib hold – but only just.

    9. Excellent questions, budgie. I shall studiously bite my tongue and defer to LJ’s wisdom, with great anticipation. Birchgrove being not far enough away from either Majors Bay or Great North Roads for my liking!

    10. This is most likely to be a Labor win in nsw.. a candidate who is a disaffected liberal is standing and directing her preferences to Labor. Part of the liberal party is supporting that candidate not the sitting liberal mp
      The sitting lib mp has condemned the far right of the liberal party. …..

    11. Reid is the seat that will fall after Swan, Pearce and Boothby. If Labor can’t win here or in Chisholm, they won’t get into government.

    12. It is hard to see Fiona Martin winning – momentum plus preferences stacked against her. I would give this as an early Labor gain on May 22.

    13. I don’t take much stock in unnamed internal party analysts but have seen both sides in the media say this is a Labor gain.

      Seems a bit instructive that albo is back in Bennelong and not here today that they must think they are doing well here.

    14. Bennelong is winnable for Labor given Alexander’s retirement and the dud hard-right anti-vax mandate candidate who’s replacing him.

    15. @budgie I wouldn’t say I’ve got all the knowledge but with regards to your question, Tsirekas was expelled from Labor because it is against their laws that you stand against a Labor candidate at any election.
      Essentially when the nominations came around for Canada Bay Council, Angelo was seeking another term under the Labor banner. A combination of head office and Andrew Ferguson’s numbers thought it was best for renewal. They put forward Julia Little, Tsirekas then took his numbers and decided to register OLC.
      His gamble paid off, as Labor is still on the nose in the area as was evidenced by Julia Little’s poor performance compared to the Independents and Libs in the area.
      Whether the expulsion/quitting came first is still up for contention, as is the case with any political divorce.
      Interesting tidbit was that Sidoti actually handed out for Angelo at the last council election, acrimony aside, they were both independents.
      Libs are still deciding who will become their candidate for Drummoyne. It could very well be Martin but not sure how keen on the idea she or the party would be, having lost so close to the election. It will be a crowded field regardless. Sidoti obviously won’t be the Liberal candidate.
      I agree, I still think this will be a Liberal hold. A lot of the premature commentary comes from people who don’t live in the area, never had or have no connection to it. It is affluent and aspirational, and a vote for Labor would require greater persuasion than people think.
      But Martin definitely has the deck stacked against her. I will say one last thing is that the Libs see her as the future of the party in a greater leadership capacity (maybe not PM) but will be doing a lot to protect the seat.
      Having a lot of the major players preferencing against her does also play into an underdog narrative.

    16. On the ground it looks like the Liberals have given up here and are putting in a token effort, instead they are sandbagging Bennelong.

    17. LJ Davidson, whilst on paper the local area is Liberal trending you also have to take into account the political environment which at the moment is pro Labor to a certain degree.

      I believe you predicted that Strathfield (at the recent state by-election) would be an upset Liberal gain yet Labor still retained it with only negligible (60% chance of winning, but not a guaranteed gain) given the acrimony against Fiona Martin and that she is not receiving favourable preferences.

    18. @Ben Martin won last time around with less than a month to campaign. Crosby had a massive budget, twice as many posters adorning shops/houses and volunteers door knocking, and she still won.
      Who knows though, perhaps a lot of Martin’s appeal is negated by another female candidate in the race. I think Baini’s campaign will be similar to that of Elizabeth Farrelly’s campaign in Strathfield. Especially considering it is centred primarily around spite (Laundy and Liberal) and not having a cohesive policy narrative like other independents.
      Morrison is the biggest weight on Martin, as Albanese is for Sitou. Hard to see Labor retaining it in 2025, if indeed they do manage to win.
      Given time, Labor might have selected someone with more runs on the board, who had a life outside of politics. They’ve now run essentially another party hack twice in a row.
      Keneally may have been better suited here but many residents may have been glad to dodge that bullet

    19. @Yoh An JYL had a 3.3% primary swing against him in a by-election where 3 other by-elections saw larger swings against the sitting government.
      Definitely a massive underperformance, considering what Labor pumped in to the seat. Again the leader Perrottet weighed heavily on Sakr’s campaign. I gladly own the “L” but that’s not a promising result for Labor in the area.
      The seat itself is still technically borderline marginal. Coupled with Drummoyne and averaging out the margins- I just look at how that translates federally.
      Drummoyne- 18.8% Lib (half of Reid)
      Strathfield- 5.8% (half of Reid)
      You can tack on the outlying areas in the state seat of Auburn, which brings down the Lib margin but ultimately this becomes a long term Liberal seat.
      Private schools, property prices and small business ownership for me are the key indicators.
      That’s why I think this seat is linked heavily to Banks and Bennelong. Bennelong obviously didn’t help matters for the Coalition by selecting a less than stellar candidate

    20. Agree with you LJ Davidson that Strathfield was an underperformance for Labor given the other two (Bega and Monaro) saw swings in excess of 5%.

      If the Strathfield by-election was conducted under full preferential voting, then Elizabeth Farrelly could well have directed preferences to the Liberal Party and the contest would have been much closer, possibly even a Liberal gain. If applied federally and treating Baini as an anti-establishment candidate (like Farrelly) then the contest would be quite tight (closer than the 3% margin Fiona Martin currently holds).

    21. Pretty sizeable contingent of Labor volunteers at Homebush West pre-poll.
      Most people getting in and out of there, not many I saw were taking HTVs.
      Some interesting posters including Labor’s “Imagine another 3 years of him” and Liberal’s “It won’t be easy under Albanese”.
      The Palmer stuff looks like a JB Hi-Fi commercial and Greens I don’t think have updated their message or design schematics for the last decade, so props to them for recycling.
      Nothing for Baini or any other groups.
      Martin definitely has to run the gauntlet to retain this one, especially against a virtually invisible Labor candidate.
      The last week of the campaign could be an irrelevance if many have already pre-polled.

    22. Surprising Baini didn’t try and pretend to be a Voices of candidate by using teal posters for example. I’d imagine there would be some of that demographic in Reid.

    23. Yoh An, the idea that minor party or independent how-to-vote orders are hugely important is mostly a furphy. Not only because there would be very few issued, but voters picking such candidates have their own ideas on which of the two majors their own preferences should go. The most decisive is probably the difference between One Nation or UAP preferencing decisions, which might end up changing 2PP by a few tenths of a percent (by being closer to 50-50 with Labor and two-thirds with Coalition). Baini or hypothetical Farrelly voters would have almost negligible influence from HTVs on which major to preference higher.

    24. The UAP have preferenced Martin over Sitou which will help Martin given the UAP is one of the more strongly performing minor parties. However, Poll Bludger has reported that Liberal polling has put Reid in the same category as Swan, Pearce and Boothby which isn’t a good sign for Martin given basically everyone expects them to fall to Labor.

    25. Reid only narrowly Yes on SSM despite its affluent & educated character so a Lib fail here would be further evidence of culture war fizzle.

    26. @Geoff the sad irony being Martin is one of the few progressive voices left in the Liberal party and is probably going to be replaced by a meek bystander who would never have to make a difficult decision against their party.
      The largest “No” vote in the electorate came from the most Labor areas: Silverwater, Lidcombe, Homebush and Flemington.
      Unfortunately this seat will go back to being occupied by another nodding head (like the previous Labor member) for press conferences until it swings back to the Libs again.

    27. You must be joking MQ. Not to be rude but she has done nothing outside of politics. She is hack in every sense of the word. Only moved into the area 12 months ago, has no connection to it and only did so as a favour to head office.
      She had her eyes on the state seat of Strathfield, which was her MO to move into her area, after previously eyeing off the state seat of Cabramatta.
      Unfortunately even though she was an ally of Jodi McKay, she didn’t anticipate her quitting parliament when she did causing the by-election. This all happened after getting preselected for Reid, and having already been nominated on the Strathfield council ticket.

      Another thing that isn’t reported much is her close ties to disgraced former General-Secretary Kaila Murnain.
      The grand plan was for Murnain to take Fowler (this is way before Keneally was in the role) after Hayes retired and then wait for Lalich to retire for Sally to take Cabramatta. Neither came to fruition because nobody in the local branches knew who Sally was (she was supposed to come in as an emissary and clear the path) and she deemed a blow-in there.

      The problem with her as a candidate is there is literally no substance to her other than opportunism. If this seat doesn’t work out, she’ll no doubt move to another area.
      I have no issue with Labor winning this seat, in fact they had a fantastic candidate in Dr Frank Alafaci who also put up his hand but was told that Head Office would not be supporting his nomination and Sally was given heavy weighting via n40.

      Prior to gaining the nomination she worked in Jason Clare’s office for a few years and then did a comms gig at Sydney Uni. But it’s hard to find any of this as she scrubbed her LinkedIn profile just before she got the Reid nod. To be honest, I couldn’t even tell you where she grew up in Sydney and where she went to school.
      When she was eyeing of Cabramatta, she was spotlighting her Laos background but then when she moved to Strathfield/Reid she reinvented herself as ethnically Chinese (even though her Mandarin is pretty bad)

      All I’ll say is why would you want a doctoral candidate as your local MP when you already have a qualified Doctor in Fiona Martin who stood up for something, bravely, or as an alternate a well established, successful PhD academic in Frank Alafaci who has long and deep connections to the area.

      But I guess Sally needs a seat too

    28. @ GR regarding SSM we can result in ethnically diverse affluent electorates such as Bennelong, Berowa, Mitchell, Greenway, Menzies (only 57% compared to neighbouring Jagagaja over 70%) etc

    29. LJ, that post of yours just reads like a blatantly partisan diatribe. Not least because you’re attacking her for moving into the electorate 12 months ago (as if that’s not long enough…) when Fiona Martin hasn’t bothered to move into the electorate after 3 years in parliament. I don’t find your aspersions on her character very weighty given that.

    30. Good read LJ. I suspect you have a few sources close to both camps.
      To Adda, wouldn’t you also be guilty of partisan diatribe? as that line about Fiona Martin is false or at least misleading.
      She went to primary school and high school in the area, her parents still live there and has known Strathfield and Five Dock for over 20 years. So if mathematics serves me correctly, that’s 19 more than the Labor nominee.
      I’m still deciding who to vote for but the chat on here has been very informative as a first time poster.
      Would love to know more about the other candidates. Mrs Sitou doesn’t have a lot of background in the way of work. A lot I can see on Mr Jago and Mrs Baini.
      Hoping the contest doesn’t get too messy
      All the best

    31. Fiona Martin seems not to be able to tell Asians apart…. Confused Sally Sitou with Tu Le, made a crack about “Sitou being sidelined for Keneally…”

      I’m sure that will go down well.

      Just reinforce every stereotype Asian Australians have about the caucasian majority…

    32. And then she was asking like ‘where *did* you grow up?’ with a smug little smirk as well. What a trainwreck. It would be a Michael Daley size scandal if Fiona was the Labor candidate.

    33. Now she’s insisting that she didn’t confuse Le and Sitou- meaning she just made the Keneally anecdote up.

      Christ what a piece of shit. Martin would honestly look better if she just admitted she mixed the two of them up. Try to justify the other question as a matter of Sydney suburb parochialism if you like. But the way she’s handled it she just sounds like a snide racist using dogwhistles.

      Again, if a Labor candidate did this it would be a career ender.

    34. It’s also how lazy it makes her look… she doesn’t even know her opponent. Anyway.

      The Shovel has the punchline that she’s since apologised to Penny Wong 😉

      (in case anyone isn’t aware, yes The Shovel is satirical).

    35. @LJ Davidson the notion that the Concord area is seeing an influx of cashed up tradies is not borne out in census data. Yes there is an influx of rich people into the area, but they come in all stripes. In 2022 because you see a brand new 4×4 ute parked in the front yard doesn’t mean that it belongs to a tradie.

    36. Just saw footage of the comment and it’s really bad. Possibly bad enough to lose the seat especially when combined with Sitou’s almost perfect response.
      There’s no doubt that Martin mixed up her information, today liberal strategists will be deciding on the best response for tomorrow because it will definitely be one of tomorrow’s big issues. I don’t think there are any good answers out there that can stand up to election level attention though.
      It’s especially bad for Martin because it grates so badly against her image as a modern moderate progressive liberal.

    37. Most people have written Reid off anyways so this just seals the deal. The problem for the Liberals is that they’re already struggling to hold Bennelong and Chisholm and her comments and attempted cover-up isn’t going to help them.

    38. OK I just watched the footage and to be blunt, she sounds like a racist who’s about to throw a tantrum. If I were Labor, I would be playing this footage in Chisholm instead of that Gladys Liu attack ad. Labor really should be playing this footage as an ad in Bennelong and Banks to give the Libs a big scare.

    39. The comments by Martin are something else. Reading the transcript the comments didn’t seem remarkably offensive, but watching the interview Martin came off as plain cruel. It’s hard to tell to what extent this will damage her and if Reid can now just be written off, tbh I’d say it’s still in play. It does however make the SMH piece about Martin a few weeks ago a lot more plausible and less like a hit piece fuelled by the Strathfield conservatives. If nothing else it has destroyed her reputation as a thoughtful, non combative MP, a stance I genuinely held for quite some time. Conversely, Sitou came off as very articulate and composed.

    40. Reid already looked a goner but that train wreck interview might have sealed it. Not sure how widespread it would be but it just comes off as thinly veiled racism to be asking an asian-australian candidate where they grew up.

    41. This sort of behaviour is expected from a politician.
      This sort of behaviour is unacceptable from a child psychologist.

    42. @Gary, nailed it.

      Hard to put yesterday’s interview down as a bad day for Dr Martin. I remember in the 2019 campaign she was occasionally engaging in some really snarky sniping at her opponent’s family. Not to make any judgement on the last campaign and the Labor candidate in that contest, but it showed a side to her that came out again yesterday.

      nearly 5 weeks into a formal campaign, and given that Sitou was preselected months ago with much fanfare, the idea that she was genuinely mistaken her for someone else is absurd. This is at best a “brain fade” and at worst a deliberate appeal to racism.

    43. Labor gain…..one of only 3 seats I’m comfortable in saying Labor will pick up (along with Swan and Boothby) I’m just not sure enough on anywhere else, really think Labor will fall short. I had Pearce as a pick up once but not so sure now.

    44. Fiona Martin released a post refusing to apologise and talking about her Greek grandparents as if that makes her immune from racism towards Asian Australians or apologising.

    45. In the space of a few days, she’s gone from a relatively low-profile politician outside her seat, to being a meme.

      That’s a pretty bad day at the office.

      And the contortions to try to get out of it don’t help.

      Just fricken admit you had a brain fart and apologise.

    46. I imagine Labor will now have more confidence of picking up this seat, if they can remind voters that Fiona Martin cannot tell one Asian woman from another. Maybe if the play the video on trucks outside polling booths.

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