IND 1.4% vs LIB
Incumbent MP
Helen Haines, since 2019.
- Geography
- Redistribution
- History
- Candidate summary
- Assessment
- 2019 results
- Booth breakdown
- Results maps
Geography
North-eastern Victoria. Indi runs along the Murray River and stretches inland to cover Wodonga, Wangaratta, Towong, Mansfield, Murrindindi, Indigo, Benalla and Alpine council areas, and part of Strathbogie council area. The major cities in the seat are Wodonga and Wangaratta.
History
Indi is an original federation electorate. Apart from four elections when the ALP won the seat, Indi has almost always been won by the Coalition parties and their predecessors.
The seat was first won in 1901 by Protectionist candidate Isaac Isaacs. Isaacs was a radical member of the Protectionist party and did not get along with most of his party. He was appointed Attorney-General in Alfred Deakin’s government in 1905, but in 1906 he was appointed to the High Court. Isaacs served on the High Court for 24 years. In 1930 he was appointed Chief Justice by Labor Prime Minister James Scullin. Shortly after, Scullin decided to break with tradition by appointing an Australian-born Governor-General, and chose Isaacs. Isaacs served as Governor-General until 1936.
Indi was won in 1906 by Anti-Socialist candidate Joseph Brown, a former Victorian state MP. Brown joined the merged Liberal Party in 1909, although he was a fierce critic of Alfred Deakin. He lost Indi in 1910 to the ALP’s Parker Moloney.
Moloney held Indi until the 1913 election, when he lost to the Liberal Party’s Cornelius Ahern, but Moloney won it back in 1914. Moloney lost Indi again in 1917. He went on to move across the border to the neighbouring NSW seat of Hume, which at the time covered Albury. He held Hume from 1919 to 1931, and served as a minister in the Scullin government.
The Nationalist Party’s John Leckie, a Victorian state MP, won Indi in 1917. He lost the seat in 1919 to Robert Cook of the Victorian Farmers’ Union, which became the Country Party.
Cook retained Indi at the 1922 and 1925 elections, but lost the seat in bizarre circumstances in 1928, when he failed to lodge his nomination papers. The seat instead was won by the ALP’s Paul Jones.
Jones was re-elected in 1929, when Cook attempted to retain his seat, before he lost Indi to the United Australia Party’s William Hutchinson in 1931. Jones went on to serve in the Victorian Legislative Council from 1938 and 1958, and left the ALP as part of the split in 1955, ending up in the Democratic Labor Party.
Hutchinson held Indi for two terms. In 1937 he moved to the new seat of Deakin, which he held until his retirement in 1949.
Indi was won in 1937 by the Country Party’s John McEwen, who had previously won the seat of Echuca in 1934. He served as a minister in the Liberal/Country governments from 1937 to 1941.
McEwen left Indi to take the new seat of Murray in 1949, and he joined Robert Menzies’ cabinet in the new government. He was elected Country Party leader in 1958, and when Robert Menzies retired in 1966 he became the most senior figure in the government, with tremendous influence over the Country Party’s larger ally, the Liberal Party. When Prime Minister Harold Holt disappeared in late 1967, McEwen briefly served as Acting Prime Minister, and he vetoed the choice of the Treasurer, William McMahon, leading to Senator John Gorton moving to the House of Representatives and becoming Prime Minister. McEwen retired in 1971.
Indi was won in 1949 by Liberal candidate William Bostock. Bostock held the seat until the 1958 election, when he lost to the Country Party’s Mac Holten. Holten was a former footballer, and he served as Minister for Repatriation from 1969 to 1972.
In 1977, Holten was challenged by the Liberal Party’s Ewen Cameron. Despite topping the poll on primary votes, Holten lost when Cameron overtook him on Labor preferences.
Cameron held Indi until his retirement in 1993. He was succeeded in 1993 by the Liberal Party’s Lou Lieberman, a former Victorian state MP and minister. Lieberman served on the Liberal backbench until his retirement at the 2001 election.
In 2001, Indi was won by Sophie Panopoulos (now Mirabella). Mirabella served on the backbench for the entirety of the Howard government, becoming a parliamentary secretary in 2007 and a shadow minister in 2008.
At the 2013 election, Mirabella was defeated by independent candidate Cathy McGowan, who won a very tight contest by 439 votes. McGowan was re-elected with an enlarged margin in 2016.
McGowan retired in 2019 and was succeeded by fellow independent Helen Haines, elected with McGowan’s support.
Assessment
Independent MPs will often grow their margin after their first term in the job, but it can be harder for independent MPs who have succeeded another independent. The Liberal Party wouldn’t require much of a swing to win here, so it’s worth watching.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Steve Martin | Liberal | 35,426 | 35.1 | +7.3 |
| Helen Haines | Independent | 32,664 | 32.4 | -1.1 |
| Eric Kerr | Labor | 12,202 | 12.1 | +2.0 |
| Mark Byatt | Nationals | 9,538 | 9.4 | -8.3 |
| Helen Robinson | Greens | 4,255 | 4.2 | +0.3 |
| Shane Wheatland | United Australia Party | 3,980 | 3.9 | +3.9 |
| Jason Peter Whalley | Derryn Hinch’s Justice | 2,891 | 2.9 | +2.9 |
| Informal | 4,601 | 4.4 | -2.2 |
2019 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Helen Haines | Independent | 51,886 | 51.4 | -4.1 |
| Steve Martin | Liberal | 49,070 | 48.6 | +4.1 |
2019 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Steve Martin | Liberal | 63,332 | 62.7 | +7.7 |
| Eric Kerr | Labor | 37,624 | 37.3 | -7.7 |
Booths have been divided into five areas. Polling places in Wodonga and Indigo council areas have been grouped along council boundaries. The remainder were split into East, South-West and West.
Independent candidate Helen Haines won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote (vs the Liberal Party) in three areas, ranging from 52% in Wodonga to 57.4% in Indigo. The Liberal candidate narrowly won in the west (50.1%) and the south-west (50.3%). Haines also won 51.4% in the pre-poll.
| Voter group | ALP prim % | IND 2CP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| West | 11.0 | 49.9 | 10,118 | 10.0 |
| South-West | 18.9 | 49.7 | 8,180 | 8.1 |
| Wodonga | 14.0 | 52.0 | 7,816 | 7.7 |
| Indigo | 9.6 | 57.4 | 6,530 | 6.5 |
| East | 9.3 | 52.3 | 6,435 | 6.4 |
| Pre-poll | 11.3 | 51.4 | 50,937 | 50.5 |
| Other votes | 13.7 | 49.7 | 10,940 | 10.8 |
Election results in Indi at the 2019 federal election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Independent vs Liberal), two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, independent candidate Helen Haines, Labor and the Nationals.
Okay I have just deleted about 45 comments. This is massively off topic.
Ben is incredibly wrong and has had that patiently explained to him by numerous people. It’s pointless. I’ve blocked him. I could do a blog post explaining the mechanics of population growth interacting with the seat count, but there’s better stuff to do now. I look forward to discussing this after the election. Please get back to discussing the seat.
Thanks Ben!
Im on the ground in indi strong Lib showing at pre poll. As well as high spirits at the Lib camp buoyed by the voters. Don’t be su
Wanted to point out something that might’ve slipped under the radar here, which was that the notional 2PP margin here between Liberal and Labor was only 5.3% to Liberal. This is only the second time in recent decades that the (notional) LIB vs ALP 2PP was “marginal” – in 2016 it was only 4.4% to Liberal.
Perhaps you could’ve described Labor’s good 2016 2PP as an outlier, but the fact the notional margin is “marginal” again indicates to me that this seat has potential for Labor. The seat has generally been recording a Liberal 2PP 15 points ahead of the Victorian federal Liberal 2PP, but in 2016 was only 6 points better, and in 2022 10 points better. The shows a slow drift towards Labor (or the “left”). I think this area is a potential long-term opportunity for Labor, though this might all be theoretical if the Independents movement remains strong here.
@ GPPS
Disagree there, funny things may happen with a theoretical notional TPP and often it is due to local factors. The size of the primary vote for the major party in the actual 2CP impacts the notional major party TPP. For example Warringah is now marginal seat versus Labor and it recorded the biggest TPP swing to Labor in 2019, Mayo is now a notional Labor seat and Fowler had the biggest TPP swing to Libs in 2022. However, i dont see Labor even winning Warringah or Mayo or the Libs winning Fowler. If there was an electorate that consisted only of Alpine Shire and Indigo Shire (such a seat maybe like the state electorate of Ripon), Labor maybe able to win it with a strong campaign as there are pockets of Labor strength in places like Beechworth, Mount Beauty, Bright etc but the rest of the seat is is traditional rural territory.
Nimalan, Unless Leon Bignell runs in Mayo, they would have a shot with him. This seat although it contains Kangaroo Island, Under the 2022 State election result, Labor would have won Mayo. So while the seat still ”Leans” to the Liberals demographically. Labor can win it in good years in South Australia.
Indi on the other hand is completely different. There isn’t really any Labor representation at all at the state level here. This area almost has no history of Labor representation or potential. I’ll remind you that the state seat of Barwon was marginal in NSW in 2019 due to SFF preferencing Labor more than the Nats. (Even though these voters would never put Labor first and would rather vote Nat), They were Nat voters voting for the SFF and they also wanted to send a message to the Nats that they aren’t doing good enough and they don’t expect Labor to win. so they fear nothing putting Labor above the Nats.
Same story could be said here. Independent voters who would never vote Labor put them above the Libs because they wanted to send a message to the Libs and didn’t have to stress at the possibility of a Labor win so it was a no-risk.
Mayowould be Labor if sharkie didn’t run. However this can be attributed toa popular state laborgovt and will shift back once they run. Their ourse
Nimalan, the reason why Fowler had the biggest TPP swing to the Libs in 2022 in the nation was because Dai Le’s HTV card put Labor last, which inflated the notional TPP swing against Labor. Many 2019 Labor voters who would never vote Liberal but followed Dai Le’s HTV card in 2022 would still have voted Labor had Le didn’t run. Fowler is a culturally diverse electorate with low levels of educational attainment, therefore Le’s HTV card included preference recommendations to assist voters casting a formal vote, unlike other successful independents (including teals, Helen Haines and Andrew Wilkie) who didn’t include preference recommendations on their HTV cards. In Fowler, a significant proportion of voters aren’t capable of casting a formal vote without the assistance of HTV cards with all boxes marked. For this reason, the percentage of Dai Le voters following her HTV card and preferencing the Liberals over Labor must be quite high, even though many of them didn’t actually prefer the Liberal Party over Labor. Therefore the Liberals will never be competitive in Fowler. Had Dai Le preferenced Labor in her HTV card, the 2PP swing against Labor would be very small and there could even be a TPP swing towards Labor if a sufficient percentage of 2019 Liberal voters followed Dai Le’s HTV card and preferenced Labor, even though they didn’t actually prefer Labor over the Liberal Party.
@ Joseph good point i did not factor that into account makes sense as Fowler has the highest % of people speaking a language other than English. The opposite of a seat like Mackellar which is educated and almost exclusively English speaking.
@ Daniel T
Good point about Leon Bignell. Mawson includes Aldinga which is a mortgage belt suburb and gives Leon Bignell a good springboard. It only makes a small part of Mayo though.
While Labor may theoretically win Mayo in a good year i still feel its resources a best spent elsewhere. Greater Adelaide is a very class divided city and i think many voters in the Adelaide Hills may actually have a class-based aversion to Labor and associate them with the industrial northern suburbs of Adelaide. Interestingly, this used to the best chance for the Democrats to win a seat in 1998 they came close so i think it retains a centrist small l liberal tradition. If there is no Teal or other independent i actually think the Greens may actually win the seat instead of Labor.
Fowler is likel6 to be massively redistributed due to being located I. That sweet spot right been the massive surplus in western Sydney and the deficient of central sydney
The area around Fairfield and Liverpool (in 2022 federally and 2023 on the state level) seems to have become like the northern and western suburbs of Melbourne (in 2022 federally and on the state level). In 2022, Fowler had a notional TPP of 55.7% after a swing of 8.3% to the Liberals.
But to say it was all because of Dai Le just simply isn’t true. She didn’t endorse any candidates at the 2023 state election, yet Labor won Liverpool with their lowest ever TPP vote since 1965. Labor’s TPP in Liverpool in 2023 was 58.3%, after a TPP swing of 9.0% to the Liberals, downgrading it from a very safe seat to a fairly safe seat. Similar things happened in Cabramatta, where Labor won with 61.8% of the TPP vote (a 7.5% swing to the Liberals). However this doesn’t mean they’re competitive there yet, as the Liberal primary vote is too low to win.
This reminds me of the big swing to the Liberals in northern and western Melbourne at the 2022 federal election but also at the 2022 Victorian state election, though a lot of the swing was anti-lockdown and came from the rise in right-wing “freedom-friendly” minor parties like the UAP, One Nation, the Liberal Democrats, the DLP and the Freedom Party plus all the right-wing independents.
One thing the Liberals did do that Labor didn’t in 2022 was cast a local candidate in Fowler (Courtney Nguyen, who was also the Liberal candidate for Cabramatta in 2023), while Labor parachuted in Kristina Keneally for some reason (this was a very dumb thing to do even without Dai Le being a popular local candidate because Kristina Keneally is still remembered in NSW for the corruption of her government that cost her a landslide defeat to Barry O’Farrell’s Coalition, which was the worst defeat of a sitting government in NSW history and at the time it was also the worst defeat of any incumbent government in Australia since World War II).
KK is a powerbbroker of one of Labor factions that’s why
@ Nether Portal,
We actually had a discussion in the thread below after the NSW election. With respect to Cabramatta i feel it is partly because of Kate Hoang who ran as an independent (her preferences either going to Libs or exhausting) and partly due to the brand damage in the in the area caused by the KK debacle.
I think the situation around Liverpool is a slightly different and i feel it is due to a perception of neglect and low quality MPs. Ned Mannoun may have also improved the perception of the Libs in an otherwise demographically unfavourable area. I mentioned my view that i think Labor could be concerned about Werriwa and i feel Anne Staley is an underperfoming MP that should face a pre-selection challenge.
https://www.tallyroom.com.au/51379-Discussion in the aftermath of the NSW election.
@Nimalan, thanks for the reply, but I feel you are underestimating the value of the notional 2PP here.
One reason why I think the notional 2PP is fairly accurate for Indi is its results for Wodonga correspond closely to Albury in Farrer (which was a straight Labor/Liberal contest). If Indi’s results for Wodonga were markedly different from Farrer’s Albury portion, then it would be easier to disregard Indi’s notional 2PP, but this is not the case – the results are very similar across the border, showing a border town that narrowly leans Liberal.
Here are the Liberal 2PPs (vs Labor) for the booths in Wodonga (Indi) and Albury (Farrer).
Indi:
Wodonga 465: 51.8%
Wodonga central: 45.6%
Wodonga central PPVC: 56.5%
Wodonga south: 46.8%
Farrer:
Albury: 48.0%
Albury central: 50.5%
Albury east: 55.2%
Albury Farrer PPVC: 60.8%
Albury north: 55.2%
Albury west: 52.2%.