Forde – Australia 2022

LNP 8.6%

Incumbent MP
Bert van Manen, since 2010.

Geography
South-East Queensland. Forde covers parts of Logan City, an urban area between the City of Brisbane and the Gold Coast. Forde also covers sparsely populated parts of the Gold Coast, but most of the population lives in Logan.

History
Forde was created at the 1984 election as a southern Brisbane seat as part of the expansion of the House of Representatives. The seat has since moved further south and lies on the edge of the urban part of South-East Queensland.

Forde was first won in 1984 by David Watson (LIB), who lost the seat in 1987 to Mary Crawford of the ALP. Watson was elected to the Legislative Assembly in 1989 and went on to serve as a minister in the Borbidge government and as state Liberal leader from 1998 to 2001.

Mary Crawford held the seat from 1987 until her defeat at the 1996 election, serving as a Parliamentary Secretary for the last two years of the Keating government.

The Liberal Party’s Kay Elson won the seat in 1996. She held the seat for eleven years as a backbencher, retiring at the 2007 election. In 2007 the ALP’s Brett Raguse won the seat. Forde was the safest Liberal seat to be lost in 2007, with the ALP gaining a 14.4% swing.

The LNP’s Bert van Manen won the seat back in 2010 with a 5% swing. In 2013, Labor’s original candidate, Des Hardman, was replaced by former Queensland Premier Peter Beattie very close to the election. The high-profile candidate selection didn’t help Labor, with van Manen increasing his margin by 2.8%. Van Manen has been re-elected twice more since.

Candidates

Assessment
Forde is a reasonably safe seat and would only come into play if Labor had a very good election in Queensland.

2019 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Bert Van Manen Liberal National 39,81943.5+2.9
Des Hardman Labor 27,00829.5-8.1
Ian BowronOne Nation10,80711.8+11.8
Kirsty Petersen Greens 7,9878.7+2.3
Paul CreightonUnited Australia Party3,6964.0+4.0
Les InnesConservative National Party2,2172.4+2.4
Informal4,4494.6-0.4

2019 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Bert Van Manen Liberal National 53,63558.6+8.0
Des Hardman Labor 37,89941.4-8.0

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into five parts. Booths in the Gold Coast council area are grouped as ‘South’. The remainder have been grouped as Central, North, East and West.

The LNP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all five areas, ranging from 51.2% in the centre to 61.4% in the south.

One Nation came third, with a primary vote ranging from 7.9% in the north to 15.3% in the west.

Voter groupON prim %LNP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
Central11.351.213,07514.3
South11.961.412,22213.4
East11.852.78,7129.5
North7.960.76,7287.4
West15.355.94,3924.8
Pre-poll11.461.129,51832.2
Other votes13.460.816,88718.4

Election results in Forde at the 2019 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal National Party, Labor and the One Nation.

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18 COMMENTS

  1. @mick there are a number of seats like this in Queensland where the margin is basically the swing of the last election.

  2. Labor have already preselected their canidate in Rowan Holzberger an electoral officier who works for senator Murray Watts office. According to his bio he has previously ran his own business in construction and worked in insursnce.

    Holzberger has contested state seats of Southport and Bonny for Labor in 2015 and 2017 respectively.

  3. my point if the margin is the 2019 swing with alp vote very low…. I think closer than 2013 election… then a ” ‘safe ‘ seat may be more competitive

  4. Mick I agree there are seats that were marginal in 2013 and then became safe in 2019 in Queensland. It is interesting in the 2017 WA election the Liberal Party lost 12 seats with margins of 10 – 18%/ It would not surprise me if this trend did not happen with the next Commonwealth ELection and Forde is one of those seats.

  5. Safe LNP hold with possibly a swing to Van Manen. Labor has made no inroads in QLD since the last election.

  6. Queensland can post big swings as evidenced in the last federal election. There will be a swing to Labor but not enough to unseat the unremarkable local Liberal member.

  7. A large amount of demographic change has occurred in this seat in the past few years. This is one of the major greenfield growth areas of SEQ, with big new estates in Park Ridge, Logan Reserve and Bahrs Scrub, with further development of existing estates in Holmview and Ormeau, and spillover from the enormous growth happening in Pimpama. I wonder if the new residents will lean LNP like the pre-existing residents, or if they will have different attitudes due to being younger and more diverse.

    As to who wins, I agree with John T. I see a swing to Labor, as many people won’t be scared by the Shorten tax proposals this time, but 8% is a big margin to make up.

  8. This is the electorate that I grew up in, and lived in until just a few years ago. As Wilson mentions, there’s been a lot of development in the general area.

    Given that PollBludger is predicting a swing of 8.8% to Labor in Queensland, even if that means a QLD 2PP of close to 50% each, this puts Forde in play. Van Manen is the very definition of an uninspiring candidate.

    Truth be told, I can’t explain the 8% swing that Van Manen got in 2019 – it’s really quite odd. I think the best explanation I can think of is those negative gearing policies that Shorten took to the election – with all the new developments, and Shorten wanting to end negative gearing specifically on new developments…

    Without those, the numbers are likely to return to typical. Which, when combined with the general swing, would put Labor in with a strong chance, here.

  9. Glen, a correction: Shorten wanted to preserve negative gearing only for new developments, and scrap it for existing developments, so perhaps we need to search for another explanation.

    Forde didn’t have a huge LNP swing in isolation – every other seat on the outer fringes of Brisbane (and to a lesser extent, Sydney) had the same phenomenon. Why? My theory is that the average voter in these areas still trusts mainstream commercial media, which broadcast a relentless scare campaign against Shorten’s proposed tax changes, most notably the scrapping of franking credit refunds. When people are told over and over that proposed policies will hit them in the pocket, they will start to believe it, even if that’s not actually true. 92% of Australians don’t receive franking credit refunds, and yet it has been repeatedly cited as a major factor in the loss of outer suburban seats in 2019.

  10. I’d have to disagree with Glen’s comment regarding Van Manen as a candidate. As a constituent in his electorate, I’ve corresponded with him on half a dozen occasions over the course of this term. Mr Van Manen has been prompt in getting back to me directly and although I don’t necessarily agree with his position on many issues, he’s always been respectful and direct in his words. Compare this with the state member Ms Fentiman, who has never responded directly to my correspondence. Instead relying on a staffer to deal with constituents.

    I think the sitting member has a mostly favourable reputation in the local area. This, along with the electorate seeing an increase in a younger, more aspirational yet working class demographic is why I believe the LNP will continue to hold this seat.

    There’s a perception in the community that Federal Labor has abandoned its working class roots, and is focussing more on social issues that don’t resonate in this electorate.

    I wouldn’t be surprised to see an uptick in One Nation, UAP and LDP primary vote, but ultimately voter will preference LNP 4th at worst, leading to an LNP victory.

  11. Interestingly Richard Marles, Jim Chalmers, and Katy Gallagher are schedule to do a press conference with the Labor candidate Rowan Holzberger today. There must be some movement detected in the internal polling if they are doing this. I still think the LNP are favourites to hold this seat because of the margin though.

  12. Why do I keep getting ads for Bert Van Manen when I do not and have never lived in this electorate? Almost every website I see his ads.

    As with most seats on the same margin in QLD, Labor is putting 0 effort in this seat which I’m sure it will come to haunt them if they narrowly were to come short here.

  13. @Daniel Despite Labor’s rhetoric they are not making a huge effort in most of Queensland to be honest. I don’t want to be *that* person but I am beginning to believe they actually are trying to use the 2019 flop as an excuse to move further right after all. It is both embarrassing and frustrating that our major center left party cannot even make the slightest remark about a modern and intelligent approach to the declining and unhealthy coal industry without fear of of it being dragged up for the next 10 years by both the opposition and the media. We are very far behind virtually every other western country and still struggle to make any real progress with future sustainable energy policies.

  14. Laine
    The ALP ambivalent position on coal is not much different to Libs position. Neither can be trusted to look after Australian Jobs. Ambivalence however means that I for one am uncertain as to which of them will make the worse Government.
    If Coalition lose they may like to consider whether their changes to the Electoral Act and wiping out the DLP have contributed to their defeat. DLP we’re ready to run a couple of candidates on Queensland, Blair and Longman. Forde was a target seat. If these seats are the difference between government and opposition they can blame themselves and the changes they made to the Electoral Act.

  15. As a resident in this seat, I have found both local candidates and campaigns to be completely uninspiring.

    Forde is absolutely up for grabs at this election, but it appears neither party is fighting particularly hard for it.

  16. Ambivalent always centered on dichotomies.
    If you want to send a message to major parties choose a third or an independent candidate, and vote last to the traditional parties.
    The average counting should reduce the margin

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