LIB 3.4%
Incumbent MP
Craig Laundy, since 2013.
Geography
Inner Western Sydney. Reid covers suburbs along the southern shore of Parramatta River from Drummoyne to Homebush Bay. It covers the City of Canada Bay and parts of Auburn, Burwood and Strathfield council areas. Major suburbs are Drummoyne, Five Dock, Croydon, Homebush, Strathfield and Burwood.
Redistribution
Reid moved east, losing Auburn and Lidcombe to Blaxland and Watson, gaining more of Strathfield and Burwood from Watson, and gaining a small area around Croydon from Grayndler. These changes increased the Liberal margin from 0.9% to 3.4%.
History
The seat of Reid was created for the 1922 election, while Lowe was created as part of the expansion of the Parliament in 1949. Reid had been held by either the ALP or Jack Lang’s Labor breakaway parties for its entire history, while Lowe had a history of alternating between the ALP and Liberal Party. Since the two seats were effectively merged in 2010, Reid has been won once each by each major party.
The seat of Reid was first won in 1922 by Labor candidate Percy Coleman. Coleman was re-elected in 1925, 1928 and 1929, but at the 1931 election he was defeated by Joseph Gander, candidate for Jack Lang’s breakaway NSW Labor Party. Gander was re-elected as a Lang Labor candidate in 1934 before rejoining the ALP when Jack Lang reconciled with the federal ALP.
Gander was re-elected as an official ALP candidate in 1937, but in 1940 Jack Lang again split away from the ALP, but with less of his former supporters in NSW following him. Gander followed Lang out of the ALP, but lost at the 1940 election to official ALP candidate Charles Morgan.
Morgan held the seat until the 1946 election, when Jack Lang himself ran in Reid and defeated Morgan. Lang was a former NSW Premier who had led a breakaway Labor party in NSW on a number of occasions.
The 1949 election saw the creation of the new seat of Blaxland, and Lang ran in that seat unsuccessfully. Morgan regained Reid in 1949, holding it until 1958.
Charles Morgan was defeated for ALP preselection by Tom Uren before the 1958 election. Morgan ran as an independent, but was defeated comfortably by Uren.
Uren served as Minister for Urban and Regional Development in the Whitlam government. He served as a Deputy Leader of the ALP from 1976 to 1977, and became the leading figure in the ALP’s left in the late 1970s. He opposed Bob Hawke’s leadership and thus was excluded from Cabinet when Hawke was elected Prime Minister in 1983. He served as a junior minister for four years before moving to the backbench in 1987.
Uren retired at the 1990 election, and was succeeded by Laurie Ferguson, who had been the state member for Granville since 1984. Ferguson has held Reid since 1990.
Lowe was first created for the 1949 election, when it was won by William McMahon (LIB). McMahon was elevated to Robert Menzies’ ministry in 1951, serving in a variety of portfolios over the next fifteen years. Upon Menzies’ retirement in 1966 McMahon became Treasurer in Harold Holt’s cabinet.
When Harold Holt disappeared in December 1967 McMahon was the presumptive successor, but Country Party leader John McEwen refused to serve with McMahon as Prime Minister. McMahon withdrew and Senator John Gorton was elected leader and moved to the House of Representatives.
McMahon served as Gorton’s Foreign Minister, but challenged Gorton for the leadership following the 1969 election unsuccessfully. In 1971 McEwen retired and Gorton’s leadership was undermined by the resignation of Malcolm Fraser from the cabinet. Gorton called a party meeting, and the ballot was tied between Gorton and McMahon, which led to Gorton’s resignation and McMahon’s election as leader and Prime Minister.
McMahon led the Coalition into the 1972 election, and was defeated by Gough Whitlam’s Labor Party. McMahon served in Billy Snedden’s shadow cabinet up to the 1974 election, and then served as a backbencher until his retirement in 1982.
Lowe had been marginal for most elections during McMahon’s service, particularly since the 1961 election. He had only held the seat with a 1.1% margin at the 1980 election, and a swing of 9.4% swing saw Labor candidate Michael Maher win the seat at the 1982 by-election, one year before Bob Hawke defeated Malcolm Fraser at the 1983 election. Maher was a state MP for Drummoyne from 1973 until the 1982 by-election.
Maher was reelected in 1983 and 1984, but was defeated in 1987 by Bob Woods (LIB). Woods was reelected in 1990, and defeated in 1993 by Mary Easson (ALP). Woods was appointed to the Senate in 1994 and served as a Parliamentary Secretary in the Howard government’s first year before resigning from the Senate in 1997 following allegations of abuse of parliamentary privilege.
Easson only held Lowe for one term, losing her seat in the 1996 landslide to Liberal candidate Paul Zammit, who had been a state MP for first Burwood and then Strathfield from 1984 until 1996. Zammit resigned from the Liberal Party in protest at aircraft noise in 1998 and contested the 1998 election as an independent, polling 15%. The seat was won in 1998 by the ALP’s John Murphy, who held the seat until 2010.
In 2010, John Murphy was re-elected in the redrawn seat of Reid, while former Member for Reid Laurie Ferguson moved to the seat of Werriwa.
Murphy lost to Liberal candidate Craig Laundy in 2013 with a 3.5% swing.
Candidates
- Marylou Carter (Family First)
- Craig Laundy (Liberal)
- Angelo Tsirekas (Labor)
- Chris Kang (Christian Democratic Party)
- Alice Mantel (Greens)
Assessment
Reid is a key marginal seat, although Laundy’s hold on the seat has been strengthened as it has moved further into the inner west.
Polls
- 51% to Liberal – Galaxy commissioned by Daily Telegraph, 11 May 2016
2013 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Craig Laundy | Liberal | 40,430 | 47.1 | +4.0 | 49.3 |
| John Murphy | Labor | 34,817 | 40.6 | -0.9 | 38.1 |
| Pauline Tyrrell | Greens | 5,968 | 7.0 | -4.2 | 7.6 |
| Mohammed Nadeem Ashraf | Palmer United Party | 1,298 | 1.5 | +1.5 | 1.4 |
| Raymond Palmer | Australian Independents | 1,215 | 1.4 | +1.4 | 1.2 |
| Bill Shailer | Christian Democratic Party | 1,219 | 1.4 | -1.7 | 1.6 |
| Emily Dunn | Democratic Labour Party | 580 | 0.7 | +0.7 | 0.7 |
| Bishrul Hafi Ameer Izadeen | Katter’s Australian Party | 297 | 0.4 | +0.4 | 0.2 |
| Others | 0.1 | ||||
| Informal | 9,003 | 10.5 |
2013 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Craig Laundy | Liberal | 43,642 | 50.9 | +3.5 | 53.4 |
| John Murphy | Labor | 42,182 | 49.2 | -3.5 | 46.6 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Reid have been split into three parts. “East” covers booths in the former Drummoyne council area. “South” covers booths in the Burwood, Strathfield and Ashfield council areas. “North-West” covers booths in the former Concord council area and the remainder of the Auburn council area.
The Liberal Party won a majority in all three areas, ranging from 51.7% in the south to 56.3% in the east.
| Voter group | GRN % | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| North-West | 6.3 | 55.1 | 23,307 | 27.9 |
| South | 7.3 | 51.7 | 19,212 | 23.0 |
| East | 8.7 | 56.3 | 17,352 | 20.8 |
| Other votes | 8.1 | 49.9 | 23,652 | 28.3 |
This should become a much safer Liberal seat over time, with the changes at the redistribution Laundy should win.
Liam
Not only that. The next redistribution will very likely excise Lidcombe (that pink 63) , as Reid is growing really fast. Laundy has no worries now, but the ridiculous original proposal would have sunk him for sure.
Completely agree, this would be one that the Liberal Party will definitely hold, even if the result is close, especially considering their superb result at the state level around here. This assessment would seem to indicate that the area is trending towards the Liberal Party.
3.4% is far from safe, so I disagree that “the Liberals have nothing to worry about”. Labor will be very competitive here if they are doing well nationally.
Having said that, apart from Lidcombe, these boundaries are exactly what the Liberals would hope for. All of the good Liberal booths in Strathfield and along the water are united in the seat, and almost all of the surrounding Labor areas (Auburn, Ashfield, Greenacre) are excluded.
The original redistribution proposal was very favourable to Labor, but I agree with Winediamond that it was not very logical. Labor were not happy when pretty much everyone but them recommended the proposed changes be undone.
3.4% is a pretty solid margin under these circumstances. If the ALP are getting anywhere near that then it they will be winning the whole damned election which we all know will not be happening.
Labor has only just started the preselection process here. This seems very late.
The redistribution has done the Liberals a big favour here. On the old boundaries this one would have fallen for sure, but now Laundy has a better than 50% chance of holding this
GG,, MM, & W of S
Laundy is humble enough bloke, to acknowledge that there are plenty of MPs more intelligent, or prettier than he. However none work as hard. He grafted, & slogged a win here.he would already be door knocking his new constituents. He is out there, all the time. watch his personal vote even with up to 20,000 new voters.
i’d be more confident of the libs holding Reid than any other seat under 6% on the pendulum.
Thank goodness he got rid of the disgraceful, & talentless John Murphy. I have never gotten over that disgusting rant of his. On the floor of the nation’s parliament no less !!!!. Complaining about the inadequate size/ portion his wife received, of beef stroganoff ,in the heavily taxpayer subsidised, parliamentary cafeteria !!!!. FFS !!!!. WTF.
To top it off we are all now paying a defined benefit pension to that useless prick. I swear if there was one pollie i could shoot , he would be a contender !!!.
I am soooooo gratefull to you Craig. ONYA mate !!!
Fascinating political cycle here. Inner west used be middle-class outer suburbs to Labor core of Sydney. Then from WW2 became much less high status & ethnically diverse so it shifted to Labor. This reached peak in early 2000s. The rise of 1% & Sydney property boom made inner west attractive again harbourside became popular. Now it’s gone back other way. At state level Drummoyne once always Labor is now safe Lib, Strathfield however is now Labor outpost in Liberal sea just as it used to be Liberal outpost.
GR
No doubt you know that the state seat of Strathfield is as much Burwood, & Ashfield. Also Jodie McKay is an extraordinary MP. Jodie ought to have the top job. Luke’s would be good, Bills would be better
? favours libs
MQ
???
Dan
The reason Murphy was only defeated by 1 % in 2013, was because he got the re distribution from heaven in 2009. Lowe / Reid lost most of Strathfield, & Burwood LGAs 65 % liberal, & gained all of Auburn LGA 70 % ALP. Laundy won what was not a marginal, but fundamentally labor seat. The current redistribution will emphasise this in due course
W of S
Good on you for pointing out Murphy’s disgraceful record on socially progressive issues. We live in a secular state, not a religious one. However it is worth noting that even Ireland (a religious state ) is now ahead of us. This is entirely due to the appalling, & disgusting abrogation of our politicians to represent the views of our nation on these kind of issues.
The idea of a plebicite is ridiculous. Our politicians are elected to represent our views, not to put the responsibility back on us when it is difficult FFS !!!!.
I have spoken VERY DIRECTLY to my MP Trent Zimmerman about this & many other things.
We have been seeing this seat shift for some time, especially around the state seat of Drummoyne, where John Sidoti has built up a strong support base. This support will continue to form the base of support for Craig Laundy.
Expect the Auburn section of the seat to swing back to the ALP but I see Laundy holding this seat with a 1% swing against him, especially with a sophomore swing.
Hawkeye
Re Auburn : i think you mean Newington, & Lidcombe, as No part of Auburn remains. I’d expect Luandy to increase his margin here, all things being equal.
Labor appear to have missed the boat with this seat – why no candidate like Lindsay, Eden-Monaro, Page, Dobell etc ??
Ben
It’s very noticeable the difference, between ‘other’ votes, & the rest. A very high ALP vote. Unusual. Is there a reason ??.
The Liberal Party won 51.4% of the 2PP amongst the Reid other votes I included, but I also included a small number of Grayndler other votes (68% 2PP ALP) and a pile of Watson other votes (54.6% ALP 2PP).
Ben
That does make sense. Although the % seems out of step with the areas transferred from Watson , to Reid. Thanks for the reply.
Now this is an area of Sydney where political effects of gentrification have been quite marked.
I take it Angelo Tsirekas will be the ALP candidate for Reid. (He has one preselection opponent.) As the current (directly elected) mayor of Canada Bay – which accounts for roughly 50% of the electorate – he’s probably the strongest candidate Labor can put forward. However, he did get thrashed in Drummoyne at the 2011 state election.
a narrow margin in the Area of Canada bay would make this a Labor win when u add the other half….. Strathfield /Burwood which is more ALP friendly
Sure enough, Angelo Tsirekas won Labor preselection.
I do wonder how vigorously the ALP will contest Reid.
DW
Not very at all IMV. If they were they would have pre selected anyone else
DW, do you know who the other Labor preselection candidate was?
I wouldn’t underestimate Angelo Tsirekas’ chances, he is extremely well-known and popular in Canada Bay, having served as the elected mayor seemingly forever. And could have that job for as long as he wanted. But of course, his council is about to cease to exist!
He was co-operative and even proactive about the mergers, and knew he was dealing himself out of a job… perhaps in expectation of bigger things. His NSW defeat in the 2011 was mostly due to Labor being so on the nose, the ex-MPs Angela D’AFive Dock and Concord Italian community. However this one may be closer than anticipated.
That said, Craig Laundy has worked hard and probably added a couple of percent. He’s been a good member too. The Greens vote is legible in this ethnically diverse electorate except in affluent Anglo Drummoyne. But what they do with their preference card may be decisive.
I mean Greens vote is “negligible” of course
HG, Frank Alafaci was the losing preselection candidate. He previously occupied an unwinnable spot on Labor’s LegCo ticket at last year’s state election.
Bill Shorten has visited Reid at least twice so far to my knowledge, TV crews and Angelo in tow… An ABC TV report tonight, which listed the seats where the leaders were spending a disproportionate amount of their time (i.e. they considered either winnable or at risk) included Reid.
I see this seat holding on for the Liberal Party off the back of a Sophomore Surge. Laundy has actually done a pretty good job connecting with the local community.
Sportsbet has this being pretty close.
Coalition 1.55, Labor 2.25.
Coalition have strengthened significantly, here. With Labor at 3.75, it’s now outside of the range I’m going to keep tracking.
I drove apre-poll voting friend out to Strathfield yesterday, the only booth open in Reid this week. Not that it matters in this seat, but Labor’s HTV has Christian Democrats as no 2, as did the Libs.
There were only Lib, Labor (lots) and CDP people around, but checking online just now, the Greens do have Labor as 2 on their HTV. If Labor has any chance here (and I think they might), it will be on the back of those Greens preferences. Symbolism like not returning a favour matters doesn’t it? At the very least, its not very nice… And Reid isn’t the sort of seat where Lab-Grns animosity is toxic – unlike neighbouring Grayndler.
ps. CDP had an open HTV, so their 1 or 2% could go either way
I feel a bit guilty because in my submission to the AEC I suggested moving Reid to centre on Canada Bay LGA, which is more or less what they did. :p It just didn’t make much sense for Auburn and Drummoyne to be in the same electorate.
Nicolas Weston
Why the guilt ??. Reid’s boundaries are largely the best outcome that could be achieved, & make more sense than most.
NW, feeling “guilty”? Are you a Labor voter who did your own side in? ;-p
These boundaries are a vast improvement on the previous boundaries. It just so happens that the change favoured the Liberal party quite strongly. That happens sometimes…a sensible change ends up being partisan in outcome. I’ve dealt with it many times before(!).
The local paper (Inner West Courier) held a candidate’s forum at Five Dock last thursday. They combined Reid with Grayndler, which made for a strange
evening. These two inner west electorate are sooo different!
Highlights:
1. Angelo Tsirekas and Craig Laundy icily snubbing one another. All the others were chummy and polite, especially Craig and the Jim Casey (Greens for Grayndler) who appeared to get on like a house on fire.
2. Albo the total pro effortlessly ploughing through the noise of the Greens Westconnex protestors – the only ones who went there to yell and disrupt. Nothing fazes this man.
3. Grayndler pollies looking confused by Reid constituents concerns… Small business tax, superannuation, various Chinese government’s policies, even a Chinese organ donation scandal! Craig was onto it. Its a different inner west out here, one that still has a diverse ethnic mix. Grayndlers’ politics are way more parochial – all about how a motorway might affect its $2m property values.
5. Denied a place on stage, Grayndler’s desperate Socialist Equality guy (a thin whiny man in a suit) trying to draw attention to himself. It was embarrassing to watch
5. Alice Mantel being ignored (except by a gracious debate moderator)
6. Grayndlers Lib candidate (whoever he is) didn’t even turn up. But he’s right, there were only 200- 300 people there, and no one goes to these events to change their mind.
I go for the theatre, and for that it was great…
Galaxy poll 2PP has this at Lib 52%, ALP 48%
Yappo – Tsirekas has also blown out to $5.00 on Sportsbet overnight for what that’s worth (Laundy shortening to $1.15).
On top of “labor sources” comments reported this past week that Reid is a “write-off” I’d say Laundy looks like he’ll be returning with an increased margin.
My prediction: The outer inner-west of Sydney (particularly areas on the river like Drummoyne and Concord) has been trending Liberal, and combined with Craig Laundy’s strong performance as an MP, and areas around Auburn being removed in the redistribution, Laundy is favoured in a tight contest.
I saw that 52/48 poll for Laundy on thursday, and suspect it may be right… Though if the the “corflute in front ward war” is in any guide, Tsirekas would win by 90:10 (at least in Drummoyne and Five Dock). These can’t all be ALP party people, Tsirekas has a big network of loyal troops in parts of Reid. Though they were out in force at the 2011 state election too, and we all now how that went…
The Libs chose Reid for the launch today, and that can’t be a coincidence. They want to keep Laundy, and truth is, the Libs would be the poorer if he lost. Most people I know (Labor voters generally) who have met him or observed closely are impressed. As I was at the the candidates forum at Club Five Dock – he came across as genuine, committed and on top of the issues of his constituents. What more can anyone want in an MP?
And demographic changes (ironically, largely initiated and championed by Tsirekas himself as mayor of Canada Bay) may mean that this is the last time this increasingly affluent Lib seat is in doubt.
“confute in front yard”. Dam predictive typing…
I’d say the potential for an upset swing towards the Liberals here has been dampened by Labor’s good candidate selection. Otherwise, I wouldn’t be surprised if Laundy was returned with an increased margin, much like his state counterpart, John Sidoti was in 2015.
W of S
IMV Laundy will receive a significant swing. 2 -3 % . However it may blow out to over 5% . Either way this will take Reid out of marginal territory.
The demographic change here will be an overwhelming influence.
HG – I’m not even sure it’s his “loyal troops.”
I’ve heard from people who have had both come to their door that Angelo’s campaign has actually been putting the pressure sell on people to place coreflutes in their yard when door knocking, as opposed to Laundy’s door knocking which is essentially just saying “g’day”.
Have also heard of one of the local veterans groups who refused that he leant on them so hard that the secretary nearly came to blows with him.
Prediction: Liberal retain, minimal swing