ALP 23.3%
Incumbent MP
Jodie Hanns, since 2021.
- Geography
- Redistribution
- History
- Candidate summary
- Assessment
- 2021 results
- Booth breakdown
- Results maps
Geography
South West. Collie-Preston lies to the south of Perth, covering the Collie, Dardanup and Donnybrook-Balingup local government areas, and part of the Capel council area. The coal-mining town of Collie is the largest population centre in the electorate.
Redistribution
Collie-Preston shifted south, gaining Balingup and Mullalyup from Warren-Blackwood and losing Peppermint Grove to Vasse and a small area to Murray-Wellington.
History
The seat of Collie-Preston is the successor to the seat of Collie, which existed under that name from 1904 until the name was changed to Collie-Wellington in 2005 and then Collie-Preston in 2008.
The seat was held by Labor continuously for eighty-one years from 1908 until 1989.
In 1989, the seat was by the National Party’s Hilda Turnbull. Turnbull defeated Labor candidate Mick Murray in 1993 and 1996. In 2001, Murray defeated Turnbull by 34 votes.
In 2005, Murray was re-elected to the renamed seat, and a combination of a friendly redistribution and a 6.7% swing saw him hold the seat with a 9.3% margin.
Most of Murray’s margin was wiped out in the 2008 redistribution, but Murray held on with a small positive swing, leaving him with a 1% margin. He was re-elected by only 56 votes in 2013, but won more comfortably in 2017.
Murray retired in 2021, and Labor’s Jodie Hanns won the seat with ease.
Assessment
Collie-Preston looks like it has a large margin, but it is Labor’s 29th-safest seat. If there was a sufficient swing to bring the election result close to being in doubt, Collie-Preston would be one of those key seats that would decide whether Labor could retain its majority.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Jodie Hanns | Labor | 16,085 | 62.2 | +12.3 | 61.6 |
| Jane Goff | Liberal | 3,778 | 14.6 | -3.3 | 14.5 |
| Wayne Sanford | Nationals | 2,245 | 8.7 | -4.3 | 8.9 |
| Gordon Scantlebury | Greens | 889 | 3.4 | -0.9 | 4.1 |
| Clinton Thomas | Shooters, Fishers & Farmers | 773 | 3.0 | -0.9 | 2.9 |
| Michael Williams | One Nation | 533 | 2.1 | -6.6 | 2.0 |
| Christine Merrifield | No Mandatory Vaccination | 487 | 1.9 | +1.9 | 1.9 |
| Emily Wilkinson | Legalise Cannabis | 458 | 1.8 | +1.8 | 1.7 |
| Russell J Sheridan | Independent | 385 | 1.5 | +1.5 | 1.5 |
| Graham Butler | Sustainable Australia | 149 | 0.6 | +0.6 | 0.6 |
| Jackie Tomic | WAxit | 71 | 0.3 | +0.3 | 0.3 |
| Informal | 1,082 | 4.0 |
2021 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Jodie Hanns | Labor | 18,963 | 73.4 | +8.7 | 73.3 |
| Jane Goff | Liberal | 6,879 | 26.6 | -8.7 | 26.7 |
Polling places have been split into four parts, mostly based on local government boundaries.
Labor’s two-party-preferred vote ranged from 62.4% in Capel to 85.1% in Collie.
| Voter group | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Dardanup | 70.1 | 4,084 | 16.2 |
| Donnybrook-Balingup | 63.5 | 2,102 | 8.4 |
| Capel | 62.4 | 1,832 | 7.3 |
| Collie | 85.1 | 1,198 | 4.8 |
| Pre-poll | 77.2 | 11,549 | 45.9 |
| Other votes | 72.1 | 4,399 | 17.5 |
Election results in Collie-Preston at the 2021 WA state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party, the Nationals and the Greens.
Mick Murray never held it by much except in 2005. And of course 2017 in the landslide.
Based on what i expect to happen at the redistribution I’m gonna go ahead and say labor will lose here. However I’m not sure to who. The redistribution may help the nats make the 2pp.
I think Labor will eventually loose by 2033 at the latest once Coal is finally closed It will then become like Morwell. I think Libs should not go too quickly to win this seat because if they become too pro-Coal then Teals can win Churchlands, Nedlands etc. WA is the most centralised state where 80% of the population lives in Perth. Perth is rapidly growing and new seats will be created in Perth which state Labor can win to offset this.
Nimaln based on preliminary redistribution ive done i can see it losing australind to Murray. Gaining Capel from Vasse. Now depending on what direction in goes in. Either further into Vasse east in roe or south in WB depending on where the numbers go. So either way labor loses. If it goes into roe the nats could get over the libs and win it. I can’t see them holding here. If the coalition gets even half the swing they got this year. I dont think the libs will have any issue holding chrchlands in fact I expect Basil to increase his margin. In regards to seats I played around abit abolished Pilbara and created another regional seat on the outskirts of Perth. However i think the problem is so much so in regards to that issue of the population being mainly in Perth that the LDA is gonna be so distributed that they need at least 1 more seat.
I anticipate the coalition to win Kalgoorlie as well. BUNBURY 50/50. I expect that seat to be lineball but the libs should probly just get over the line. I think O’Donnell probly cost th pe coalition the seat due to vote splitting. I also think if the nats made the 2pp they would of won it. And think they are better placed to win it. The libs might be in a more competitive position in Albany as well. Overall i think the coalition can repeat its 2025 result in doubling its seats. I can see them probly scrounging 26=28 seats. Still just short of government. They would then have to hope a couple Independents can get up.
Collie-
Expect lab to retain unless very strange boundaries
Bunbury
Kalgoorlie
Bellwether country seats will go with
Government
Doubtful. I’d say coalition will gain both collie and Kalgoorlie with Bunbury to be lineball. There is an obvious city-regional divide in wa. Roe and mid west are already lib v nat seats. I would expect central wheatbelt to follow. Kalgoorlie has a history of being a an ejector seat. Incumbency/vote splitting is the only thing that saved her. Collie is low hanging fruit compared to the rest of the state. The only thing keeping collie in the labor column is that strong labor vote in collie and parts of australind. Collie would fall long before govt. Bunbury however is on the same margin as the govt 2pp. So yea that might be true there.
In fact geraldton may end up being lib. V nat as well. Kalgoorlie although strong for labor since its inception has trended right. Labor only won it due to their unexpectedly high vote due to the McGowan landlside of 2021. I’d expect Kalgoorlie to be unwinnable except in a landslide for labor in future
@john
See next election what happens
I’m expecting around a 6% tpp swing. Barring a controversy. Lib/nats to win at least 12 seats. I’d expect the 2pp in collie to be around 52% post redistribution. Labor can’t even sustain 1/2 the swing from year even on current boundaries. In regards to murray-wellington the margin might even mpbe notionally labor if it gains the rest of australind and loses parts of Murray. Though I’d expect the swing to the libs to overcome the deficit and notionally retain it. With the exception of Fremantle these seats should be liberal targets.
Pilbara Kevin Michel ALP 0.6
Fremantle Simone McGurk ALP 0.8 v IND
Dawesville Lisa Munday ALP 1.3
Kalgoorlie Ali Kent ALP 1.6
South Perth Geoff Baker ALP 1.6
Bateman Kim Giddens ALP 3.3
Kingsley Jessica Stojkovski ALP 3.5
Forrestfield Stephen Price ALP 4.1
Riverton Jags Krishnan ALP 4.2
Collie-Preston Jodie Hanns ALP 4.3
Scarborough Stuart Aubrey ALP 5.0
Darling Range Hugh Jones ALP 5.1
Fairly safe
Joondalup Emily Hamilton ALP 6.3
Jandakot Stephen Pratt ALP 6.4
Bunbury Don Punch ALP 7.1
Swan Hills Michelle Maynard ALP 8.4
Of all these seats i can see labor holding Scarborough but the others would be too hard to hold. Don Punch will be 73 at the next election so him retiring would probly sink Bunbury. Although if she’s gonna lose Collie, Jodie Hanns could switch over there.
Given its low margin if Pilbara survives I’d imagine it would flip notionally to the coalition. Of the 5 LDA seats theres not enough quota even with LDA if you exclude Kalgoorlie and Roe which can make quota. Between Pilbara Mid West and Kimberley they are probably about 0,5 quota short.
Pilbara would certainly lose most of east Pilbara including Newman. At worst it loses all of EP and Port hedland. They could try spreading this deficit across the region but why forestall the inevitable? The next redistribution would see it happen anyway.
When is next redistribution?
2027