South Metropolitan – WA 2013

Incumbent MLCs

  • Kate Doust (Labor), since 2001.
  • Phil Edman (Liberal), since 2009.
  • Sue Ellery (Labor), since 2001.
  • Nick Goiran (Liberal), since 2009.
  • Lynn MacLaren (Greens), since 2009. Previously MLC for South Metropolitan February-May 2005.
  • Simon O’Brien (Liberal), since 1997.

Geography
South Metropolitan covers suburbs of Perth south of the Swan River, along the coast from Victoria Park, South Perth and Alfred Cove in the north to Warnbro in the south.

The region covers the electoral districts of Alfred Cove, Bateman, Cannington, Cockburn, Fremantle, Jandakot, Kwinana, Riverton, Rockingham, South Perth, Southern River, Victoria Park, Warnbro and Willagee.

Seven seats are held by Labor, five by the Liberal Party and two by independents.

The region includes three marginal Liberal seats (Jandakot, Riverton and Southern River). The ALP also holds one seat which is extremely marginal, against an independent. The two independent-held seats are also held by slim margins.

There are another six Labor and two Liberal seats held with margins between 9% and 15%.

History
South Metropolitan was created as a five-member electorate in 1989.

At the first election in 1989, South Metro elected three Labor and two Liberal MLCs. For five successive elections, the left (Labor and Greens) won three seats to two Liberals.

In 1993, the ALP lost their third seat to the Greens’ Jim Scott – the first Green to win a seat in the WA Parliament.

The split of 2 Labor, 2 Liberal and 1 Greens was maintained at the 1993, 1996 and 2001 elections.

Jim Scott retired at the time of the WA state election in 2005, and he was succeeded in the Greens seat by Lynn MacLaren, who then failed to win re-election, and only held the term for a few months.

The ALP regained a third seat at the expense of the Greens in 2005.

In 2008, South Metropolitan became a six-seat region. The ALP lost their third seat to the Greens’ Lynn MacLaren, while the Liberal Party gained a third seat.

2008 result

GroupVotes%Quota
Labor113,95740.612.8430
Liberal108,22938.572.7001
The Greens33,42611.910.8339
Family First5,9812.130.1492
Christian Democratic Party5,6052.000.1398
Others13,3854.770.3339

On primary votes, the ALP and the Liberal Party each won two seats. The final two seats were a contest between the ALP (0.84), the Greens (0.83) and the Liberal Party (0.70).

After the elimination of minor candidates, the final five candidates held the following proportions of a quota:

  • MacLaren (GRN) – 0.8994 quotas
  • Henderson (ALP) – 0.8561
  • Edman (LIB) – 0.8267
  • Tremain (CDP) – 0.2169
  • Lindsey (FF) – 0.1982

While it appeared that the Greens and Labor were leading in the race to win the two remaining seats, the combined vote for the conservative candidates was more than a quota.

The elimination of Lindsey saw most of Family First’s preferences flow to the CDP:

  • MacLaren – 0.9035
  • Henderson – 0.8579
  • Edman – 0.8306
  • Tremain – 0.4051

The elimination of the CDP candidate pushed the Liberal candidate over quota, and the remainder of the CDP preferences flowed to the Greens candidate, electing her over the ALP.

  • MacLaren – 1.0856
  • Edman – 1.0016
  • Henderson – 0.8642
  • Tremain – 0.0457

The final margin between the Greens and Labor was 0.22 quotas, or 3.2%.

Overall, the Liberal Party comfortably won three seats, and three seats were solidly in the left block. The final seat was a close contest between Labor and the Greens, although it was ultimately conservative preferences which decided the final left seat.

Candidates

  • Family First
    • Jim McCourt
    • Steve Bolt
  • Shooters and Fishers
    • Ian Blevin
    • Michael Glover
  • Labor
    • Sue Ellery
    • Kate Doust
    • Anne Wood
    • Dominic Rose
    • Sharon Thiel
    • Sandy Bird
  • Australian Christians
    • Bob Burdett
    • Ka-ren Chew
  • The Greens
    • Lynn MacLaren
    • Tammy Solonec
    • Jean Jenkins
  • Liberal
    • Simon O’Brien
    • Nicolas Goiran
    • Phil Edman
    • Gabriel Moens
    • Michelle Jack
  • John Tucak
  • Keith Wilson
  • Jim Grayden

Preferences
The race in South Metro is primarily between the two major parties, the Greens and three small conservative parties.

 

The Greens and Labor have swapped preferences. After the Greens, Labor preferences the Shooters, Christians, Family First, then Labor. The Greens preference the Liberals ahead of the right-wing minors.

The Liberals preference the Australian Christians first, with their preferences putting Labor last and the Greens second-last.

All three of the right-wing minors preference the other two first and second, followed by the Liberals. The Australian Christians (previously known as the CDP) gain the second preferences of Family First, the Shooters and the Liberals, and give their second preference to Family First.

The Liberals preference the Greens ahead of Labor, whereas Family First and the Australian Christians preference Labor ahead of the Greens.

The Shooters and Fishers diverge from the other right-wing minors. After preferencing the Australian Christians and Family First, they preference the Greens ahead of the Liberals and Labor.

Assessment
Any swing to the Liberal Party should solidify the party’s hold on their third seat, but is unlikely to be enough to give the Liberals or another right-wing candidate a chance at another seat.

The race is between Labor and the Greens. In 2008, the Greens beat Labor by 0.22 quotas, although most of this lead was due to preferences from the Christian Democratic Party.

The most likely outcome will see the ALP vote decline and the Liberal vote increase. If the Liberals poll over a quota, their preferences should assist the Greens, but this is likely to be balanced out by preferences to Labor from the Christians and Family First. Overall the Greens are tipped to retain the seat due to Labor’s current poor polling.