Warnbro – WA 2013

ALP 10.1%

Incumbent MP
Paul Papalia, since 2008. Previously Member for Peel 2007-2008.

 

Map of Warnbro’s 2008 and 2013 boundaries. 2008 boundaries appear as red line, 2013 boundaries appear as white area. Click to enlarge.

Geography
Southern fringe of Perth metropolitan region. Warnbro covers coastal suburbs between Rockingham and Kwinana.

Redistribution
Warnbro lost one suburb to Kwinana, which increased the ALP’s margin from 9.7% to 10.1%.

History
Warnbro was newly created at the 2008 redistribution, but was a smaller version of the former seat of Peel. Peel was held by Labor continuously from its creation in 1989 until its abolition.

Norm Malborough had been first elected in Cockburn in 1986, and moved to Peel in 1989. He held the seat until his resignation under a cloud of scandal in 2006.

In early 2007, the by-election was won by Labor candidate Paul Papalia.

Papalia won the new seat of Warnbro in 2008.

Candidates

Assessment
Warnbro is a safe Labor seat.

2008 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Paul Papalia ALP 9,666 48.5 -4.4
Shane Bathgate LIB 6,412 32.1 +0.7
Colin Booth GRN 2,414 12.1 +5.7
Matt Pollock FF 1,457 7.3 +4.3

2008 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Paul Papalia ALP 11,907 59.7 -1.5
Shane Bathgate LIB 8,039 40.3 +1.5

 

Polling booths in Warnbro at the 2008 WA state election. North in green, South in blue.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into two halves: North and South.

The ALP won in both areas, but won by a larger margin in the north.

Voter group ALP % LIB % GRN % Total votes % of ordinary votes
North 49.74 30.86 11.41 11,109 71.30
South 45.25 36.12 12.10 4,471 28.70
Other votes 48.46 31.33 13.85 4,369
Labor primary votes in Warnbro at the 2008 WA state election.
Liberal primary votes in Warnbro at the 2008 WA state election.
Greens primary votes in Warnbro at the 2008 WA state election.

4 COMMENTS

  1. Baldivis (which has now gone to Kwinana) is the southern end of SOR Perth sprawl – that’s why losing it has increased the Labor margin. They now have an ALP vs Ind seat to vote in, so let’s see which side they pick.

    Fun fact: The Peel by-election in 2007 actually had a swing to Labor. Imagine that happening in Ryde or Penrith, or Altona.

    Fun fact #2: Labor would hold Warnbro by just 0.2% on federal 2010 figures, and the area could turn blue in September. None of Warnbro, Rockingham, Kwinana or Mandurah are at the slightest risk of being won by Barnett’s mob, but the fed Libs have been fighting a war of attrition since 2004 that has seen Labor sink to 3 seats out of 15 and made Brand marginal. (We didn’t really get the Ruddslide over here, that was an east coast thing.)

  3. Could be one to watch if todays newspoll is to be believed. Surely the Mandurah rail line helped Labor a lot here last ime, so these seats could over correct. Also if its line ball on a Federal basis, the nerspoll has the Lib up a couple of points on that.

  4. Gary Gray will be at Centrelink come the federal election as he is not well liked in his own electorate

Comments are closed.