Essendon – Victoria 2022

ALP 15.8%

Incumbent MP
Danny Pearson, since 2014.

Geography
Western Melbourne. Essendon covers eastern parts of the City of Moonee Valley, specifically the suburbs of Ascot Vale, Ascot Vale West, Essendon, Essendon North, Flemington, Moonee Ponds, Strathmore and Strathmore Heights.

Redistribution
Essendon expanded slightly to the south, taking in Flemington from Melbourne.

History

Essendon has existed as an electoral district since 1904. Apart from one term in the 1950s when the seat was abolished, it has alternated between the ALP and conservative parties. At most elections since the 1950s it has been won by the party of government, with a few exceptions.

Essendon was first won by William Watt of the Liberal Party. He had previously served as Member for North Melbourne and East Melbourne since 1897.

Watt served as Premier for Victoria in two six-month stints from 1912 to 1914. In 1914 Watt resigned from Essendon to run for the federal seat of Balaclava for the Liberal Party. He served as a senior member of Billy Hughes’ Nationalist government before falling out with Hughes. He later served as Speaker from 1923 to 1926, and retired in 1929.

The 1914 by-election was won by the ALP’s Maurice Blackburn. He lost his seat in 1917, later returning as Member for Fitzroy and then Clifton Hill from 1925 to 1934, when he resigned to take the federal seat of Bourke. Blackburn regularly defied the ALP leadership and was expelled from the ALP in 1941, losing his seat in 1943.

Thomas Ryan won Essendon in 1917 and held it until his defeat in 1924 by the ALP’s Francis Keane. He held Essendon for one term before moving to Coburg in 1927, holding it until 1940.

In 1927, Essendon was won by Arthur Drakeford, who held it until his defeat in 1932. He held the federal seat of Maribyrnong from 1934 to 1955, serving as a minister in the Curtin and Chifley governments during  the 1940s and serving until he lost his seat in 1955 following the ALP split which caused the creation of the Democratic Labor Party.

James Dillon held Essendon for the United Australia Party from 1932 to 1943, when he lost to Samuel Merrifield. Merrifield moved to Moonee Ponds in 1945, holding it until his defeat in 1955. He then served as an upper house member for Doutta Galla province from 1958 to 1970.

Arthur Drakeford Jr won Essendon in 1945, holding it for one term before losing in 1947. He later won Pascoe Vale in 1955 and holding it until its abolition in 1958.

Allen Bateman held Essendon for the Liberal Party for one term from 1947 to 1950, when he was defeated by George Fewster of the ALP. He held the seat until 1955 when Essendon was abolished.

Essendon was restored after one term in 1958, when it was won by the Liberal Party’s Kenneth Wheeler. He held Essendon until 1979, serving as Speaker from 1973 until his retirement.

Essendon was held from 1979 to 1992 by Barry Rowe of the ALP. He served as a minister in the Labor government from 1989 to 1991. In 1992 he contested the seat of Gisborne unsuccessfully, while Essendon was won by the Liberal Party’s Ian Davis.

Davis held Essendon for one term, losing in 1996 to Judy Maddigan. Maddigan served as Speaker of the Legislative  Assembly from 2002 to 2006. Maddigan was re-elected in 1999, 2002 and 2006.

In 2010, Essendon was won by Justin Madden, a minister in the Labor government and a member of the Legislative Council. Madden had held a seat in Doutta Galla province from 1999 to 2006, and represented Western Metropolitan from 2006 to 2010.

Madden retired in 2014, and was succeeded by Labor candidate Danny Pearson. Pearson was re-elected in 2018.

Candidates

Assessment
Essendon is a safe Labor seat. The Greens poll strongly here but are a long way away from winning.

2018 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Danny Pearson Labor 19,173 46.2 +5.3 46.2
Gino Potenza Liberal 11,414 27.5 -8.3 27.5
James Williams Greens 6,971 16.8 -1.2 16.8
Richard Lawrence Independent 1,702 4.1 +0.7 4.1
Kate Baker Independent 1,356 3.3 +3.3 3.3
Dermot Connors Democratic Labour 856 2.1 +2.1 2.1
Informal 2,067 4.7 +0.8

2018 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Danny Pearson Labor 27,315 65.9 +7.2 65.8
Gino Potenza Liberal 14,157 34.1 -7.2 34.2

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into three areas: central, north and south.

Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, with 61% in the centre and north, and 77.5% in the south.

The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 10.3% in the north to 21.8% in the south.

Voter group GRN prim % ALP 2PP % Total votes % of votes
South 21.8 77.5 8,441 20.4
Central 14.2 61.1 5,665 13.7
North 10.3 61.4 3,387 8.2
Pre-poll 14.9 60.9 17,032 41.1
Other votes 20.9 69.5 6,947 16.8

Election results in Essendon at the 2018 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party and the Greens.

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5 COMMENTS

  1. Safe Labor seat, and comfortable hold. But, with no Liberal candidate announced, plus with AJP & Socialists preferences could we see Essendon as a wildcard Labor-Greens 2CP contest?

  2. Gap between LIB and GRN is 10.7% – less than Albert Park; And the ALP primary of 46% is a bit softer than in Footscray/Preston.

    And I’m presuming the Libs are putting Labor last per their ads – which is crucial here. The LIB vote is always going to be stronger in the north of this district to save them from completely cratering like elsewhere in the inner suburbs

    Wildcard is right. In an election where Liberal preferences come their way (especially with Lib voter attitudes towards Andrews,) I think this is winnable if they can get into 2nd. Don’t think the Greens are putting in any effort here this time, but it will probably be their next best target outside of the 6 often talked about.

  3. To me this seems a surprisingly poor result for the Greens, especially compared to the other inner Melbourne seats. Didn’t eat much into Labor’s primary and in fact went backwards themselves.

    I know this is slightly different with the more Liberal voting northern end, but the Big Green Surge didn’t seem to touch Flemington and Ascot Vale.

    Maybe this is the sort of seat where a Teal instead of a Green would be a better challenger for Labor?

  4. I can’t imagine the Greens spent much time or effort campaigning in this seat, knowing they had no shot at victory.

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