- Peter Kavanagh (DLP), since 2006.
- David Koch (LIB), since 2006. Previously MLC for Western 2002-2006.
- Jaala Pulford (ALP), since 2006.
- Gayle Tierney (ALP), since 2006.
- John Vogels (LIB), since 2006. Previously MLC for Western 2002-2006.
Western Victoria covers parts of Victoria along the southern coast west of Port Phillip Bay to the South Australian border. It also covers the cities of Geelong and Ballarat.
Eight seats in Western Victoria are held by the ALP, along with two Liberal seats and one National seat.
|Democratic Labor Party||10,485||2.66||0.1595|
The ALP and the Liberal Party each achieved two full quotas. The ALP achieved half of a third quota, while the Greens polled half a quota and the Nationals polled a third.
The fifth seat was decided after a rather unusual distribution of preferences, going to Peter Kavanagh of the DLP, who was the sixth-highest polling party on primary votes. Kavanagh achieved this with some very convenient results that allowed him to overtake candidates who then preferenced him.
After elimination of minor candidates, the count reached this point:
- Ward (GRN) – 0.5275 quotas
- Carbines (ALP) – 0.5192
- McIntosh (NAT) – 0.3391
- Alderson (FF) – 0.2372
- Kavanagh (DLP) – 0.1978
- Bullen (LIB) – 0.1146
- Hodge (CA) – 0.0566
Upon the elimination of Hodge, Kavanagh overtook Alderson. Liberal preferences then flowed to the Nationals. At the key point, Kavanagh outpolled Alderson by only 309 votes.
Kavanagh was then 1090 votes ahead of McIntosh. Her preferences pushed Kavanagh into the lead at the next count:
- Kavanagh (DLP) – 0.8786
- Ward (GRN) – 0.5366
- Carbines (ALP) – 0.5305
ALP preferences flowed to Kavanagh, electing him ahead of the Greens’ Marcus Ward. The Greens outpolled the ALP by only 403 votes. If the ALP had outpolled the Greens, Greens preferences would have elected the ALP’s Carbines instead of Kavanagh.
The Liberal Party and Nationals are running a joint ticket:
The two Labor seats and the two Liberal seats are all reasonably secure. Peter Kavanagh’s hold on his seat, however, is extremely precarious.
Kavanagh was very close to falling behind first Family First and then the Nationals and key points during the count. If the Liberal Party polls slightly better they may also overtake Kavanagh at the key point in the count. While you can assume Kavanagh will increase his primary vote after four years as an incumbent MLC, he is still a long way from a quota in his own right.
If Kavanagh manages to get to the final round, he is quite far ahead of the Greens. That, however, assumes that the ALP will continue to preference in the same way. Following the 2004 Senate victory by Family First Senator Steve Fielding and the 2006 result in Western Victoria, the ALP has faced a backlash for using their preferences to elect right-wing candidates ahead of the Greens, and in 2007 and 2010 the ALP preferenced the Greens in the Senate in Victoria.
If they repeat this decision in the Victorian state election, Kavanagh’s chances immediately fall to close to zero. While the Greens only outpolled the ALP by a slim margin, the current political environment suggests that the Greens vote will increase and the ALP vote will decrease, making that margin wider. This suggests that the Greens would be the favourite to win the seat.
However, even if the ALP preferences the Greens, it is possible that the right could still gain the third seat. Adding together the final vote for Labor and the Greens, collectively they outpoll the DLP (including the preferences of Family First, Liberal and National) by 3.14%. A swing of just over 1.5% from, say, Labor to Liberal would likely see one of the right-wing candidates in close competition with the Greens for the final seat.