Ballarat East – Victoria 2010

ALP 6.6%

Incumbent MP
Geoff Howard, since 1999.

Geography
Ballarat East covers eastern parts of Ballarat and regional areas to the east of Ballarat. The seat covers parts of the Ballarat, Golden Plains, Hepburn, Macedon Ranges and Moorabool local government areas.

History
Ballarat East first existed as a Victorian Legislative Assembly district from 1859 until 1927. It elected two members from 1859 until 1889, when it became a single-member district. The single member district was held by Liberal and Nationalist members from 1889 until 1924, when it was won by the ALP. The seat was abolished in 1927.

Ballarat East was recreated in 1992, and won by the Liberal Party’s Barry Traynor. He won with a slim 1.6% margin in 1992, which was cut to 1% in 1996, before he lost to the ALP’s Geoff Howard in 1999.

Howard increased his margin to 7.6% in 2002 before it was cut to 6.6% in 2006.

Candidates

 

 

 

Political situation
Ballarat East is held by a substantial margin, but was held by the Liberals when they were last in power and could be vulnerable.

2006 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Geoff Howard ALP 14,292 42.95 -5.87
Geoff Hayes LIB 11,183 33.60 +2.44
Michele Harvie GRN 3,915 11.76 -1.36
Dianne Hadden IND 2,199 6.61 +6.61
Grace Bailey FF 1,690 5.08 +5.08

2006 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Geoff Howard ALP 18,850 56.64 -0.97
Geoff Hayes LIB 14,429 43.36 +0.97

Booth breakdown
Polling booths in Ballarat East have been divided into three areas. Those booths in the Ballarat urban area have been grouped, while the rest of the seat has been divided into ‘north’ and ‘south’. The ALP won 57-58% in the Ballarat area and the north, winning a much smaller 1.8% margin in the south of the seat.

 

Polling booths in Ballarat East at the 2006 state election. Ballarat in blue, North in yellow, South in green.

 

Voter group GRN % ALP 2CP % Total votes % of votes
Ballarat 11.42 57.98 12,916 38.68
North 13.58 57.21 10,146 30.38
South 7.07 51.82 3,730 11.17
Other votes 12.32 56.71 6,604 19.77
Two-party-preferred votes in Ballarat East at the 2006 state election.
Greens primary votes in Ballarat East at the 2006 state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in the Ballarat urban area at the 2006 state election.
Greens primary votes in the Ballarat urban area at the 2006 state election.

4 COMMENTS

  2. Yeah the whole Mineral Springs/Natural Health region attracts lots of trendies and tree-changers. You see it starting to spill over into towns like Malmsbury as well.

  3. Ben, it looks like you’ve got a problem with the Ballarat West page – comments off, maps and past results gone, etc.

  4. Prediction: ALP hold, based on Newspoll suggesting no rural swing is on, and the strong firewall put up by Labor in the regional cities

Comments are closed.