Waikato – NZ 2014

NAT 47.23% vs LAB

Incumbent MP
Lindsay Tisch, since 2008. Previously Member for Karapiro 1999-2002, Member for Piako 2002-2008.

Geography
North Island. Waikato covers northern parts of the Waikato council area, southern parts of Matamata-Piako council area and a small part of Waipa council area. The seat stretches from Matamata in the east, through Huntly and Morrinsville, down to the outskirts of Hamilton, and up to Tuakau in the north-west.

Map of Waikato's 2011 and 2014 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Waikato’s 2011 and 2014 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Waikato lost areas to the west of Hamilton to Taranaki-King Country, and a small area to the two electorates in the Hamilton area. Its southern borders were shifted, gaining territory from Hunua and losing its northeastern corner to Coromandel. These changes increased the National margin from 46.5% to 47.2%.

History
An electorate by the name of Waikato was first created in 1871. That seat was abolished in 1963, and restored in 1969 before being abolished again in 1996. The current electorate was created in 2008.

Rob Storey held Waikato from 1984 to 1996, but left Parliament upon Waikato’s abolition in 1996.

Lindsay Tisch, the current Member for Waikato, was first elected in Karapiro in 1999. Karapiro covered some of the same areas as Waikato. Karapiro was abolished after two terms in 2002, and Tisch won the new seat of Piako.

Tisch was re-elected in Piako in 2005, and in 2008 won the restored seat of Waikato. He has been re-elected in Waikato once, in 2011.

Candidates

  • Mike Burrow (ACT #22)
  • Brian Dobbs (Conservative #12)
  • Christine Greer (Labour #44)
  • Katherine Ransom (Democrats #4)
  • Barbara Stewart (New Zealand First #5), list MP.
  • Lindsay Tisch (National #26)

Assessment
Waikato is a very safe National seat.

2011 election results

Electorate VotesParty Votes
CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedistVotes%SwingRedist
Lindsay Tisch National 19,81764.90+1.4765.2218,87559.98+2.5460.27
Kate Sutton Labour 5,61918.40-4.5217.985,17316.44-6.1316.18
Cameron Harper Green 1,9706.45+1.776.362,2087.02+3.086.97
Barbara StewartNew Zealand First1,5715.15+0.885.182,5498.10+2.818.34
Brian DobbsConservative1,1423.74+3.743.821,2844.08+4.083.97
Robin BoomACT3071.01-2.431.046071.93-4.541.95
John PembertonDemocrats1070.35-0.030.31410.13+0.010.10
United Future2430.77-0.110.72
Māori0.081860.59-0.140.58
Legalise Cannabis1700.54+0.160.52
Mana910.29+0.290.28
Libertarianz280.09+0.040.08
Alliance120.04-0.040.04
Polling places in Waikato at the 2011 general election. Central in green, East in red, Huntly in yellow, North in blue. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Waikato at the 2011 general election. Central in green, East in red, Huntly in yellow, North in blue. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Waikato have been divided into four areas. Polling places in Huntly have been grouped together. Those polling places in Matamata-Piako and Waipa council areas have been grouped as ‘East’. The remaining polling places in Waikato council area, but not in the Huntly area, have been split into ‘Central’ and ‘North’.

The National Party won large majorities in the three rural parts of the seat, with a party vote ranging from 60% in the north to 63% in central. Labour polled 13-17% in these three areas.

In Huntly, Labour narrowly outpolled National on both the electorate vote and party vote. The two parties both polled just over 40% of the electorate vote and 36-37% of the party vote.

New Zealand First came third, with a party vote peaking at 12.6% in Huntly. The Green Party came fourth, outpolling New Zealand First in the ‘Central’ area.

Voter groupElectorate votesParty votesTotal% of votes
NATLABNATLABNZFGRN
East68.5915.2862.9013.688.835.879,01430.25
Central67.9816.9363.1614.137.228.106,34221.28
North63.6916.4059.9515.059.216.875,82819.56
Huntly40.3140.4536.1937.1512.645.742,0326.82
Other votes66.9717.1761.6016.066.737.826,58422.09
National party votes in Waikato at the 2011 general election.
National party votes in Waikato at the 2011 general election.
Labour party votes in Waikato at the 2011 general election.
Labour party votes in Waikato at the 2011 general election.
National party votes in the Huntly area at the 2011 general election.
National party votes in the Huntly area at the 2011 general election.
Labour party votes in the Huntly area at the 2011 general election.
Labour party votes in the Huntly area at the 2011 general election.