Palmerston North – NZ 2014

LAB 10.2% vs NAT

Incumbent MP
Iain Lees-Galloway, since 2008.

Geography
Palmerston North covers the town of the same name. The electorate’s northern and western boundaries follow the local government boundary, with the Manawatu River on the southern boundary. The electorate is entirely surrounded by Rangitīkei, which covers semi-rural parts of Palmerston North council area.

Redistribution
No change.

History
The Palmerston North electorate has existed since 1890, and has been held by Labour continuously since 1978.

Steve Maharey won the seat in 1990, and held the seat until his retirement in 2008. He served as a minister in the Labour government from 1999 to 2008.

In 2008, the Labour margin in Palmerston North dropped from 17.2% to 3.3%, when Maharey was succeeded by Iain Lees-Galloway.

In 2011, Lees-Galloway was re-elected, and increased his margin to 10.2%.

Candidates

  • Darroch Ball (New Zealand First #10)
  • Pani Farvid (Internet #14)
  • Iain Lees-Galloway (Labour #24), Member for Palmerston North.
  • Jono Naylor (National #51), Mayor of Palmerston North.
  • Mark Pearce (Conservative)

Assessment
Palmerston North is held by Labour by a 10.2% majority, which is substantially less than the 17.2% margin in 2005. Lees-Galloway has now held the seat for two terms and should be a strong candidate, but will face strong opposition in the National Party’s Jono Naylor, the local Mayor. Lees-Galloway only held on by 3.3% in 2008, which suggests Labour’s hold on Palmerston North is less than solid. Despite all these matters, Labour is the favourite to win this seat.

2011 election results

Electorate VotesParty Votes
CandidatePartyVotes%SwingVotes%Swing
Iain Lees-Galloway Labour 16,52551.32+4.5011,19433.88-6.80
Leonie Hapeta National 13,24041.12-2.4314,57744.12+3.46
Corrina Tucker Green 1,4854.61+0.193,46910.50+3.99
Andrew MarquetConservative6752.10+2.109973.02+3.02
Daniel StrattonACT1670.52-0.712450.74-1.99
Mohamed EusoffUnited Future1090.34-0.422100.64-0.60
New Zealand First1,8705.66+1.61
Māori1680.51-0.20
Legalise Cannabis1570.48+0.07
Mana940.28+0.28
Alliance230.07+0.02
Libertarianz190.06+0.01
Democrats150.05+0.03
Polling places in Palmerston North at the 2011 general election. Central in green, East in yellow, Hokowhitu in blue, West in orange. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Palmerston North at the 2011 general election. Central in green, East in yellow, Hokowhitu in blue, West in orange. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Palmerston North have been divided into four areas:

  • Central – Milson, Palmerston North and West End
  • East – Kelvin Grove, Parkland, Roslyn and Terrace End
  • Hokowhitu
  • West – Awapuni, Cloverlea, Highbury, Takaro

The Labour Party won a majority of the electorate vote in three out of four areas, with a vote ranging from 51.7% in Central to 58.2% in West. National won 50.2% in Hokowhitu.

The Labour party vote is much lower, ranging from 24.1% in Hokowhitu to 40.7% in West. Labour only outpolled National in West. The National party vote ranged from 38.7% in West to 53.3% in Hokowhitu.

The Green Party came third, with a party vote ranging from 7.% in West to 12.4% in Hokowhitu.

Voter groupElectorate votesParty votesTotal% of votes
LABNATGRNNATLABGRNNZF
Central51.7040.205.2843.6833.0411.555.928,33025.87
West58.2135.573.3638.7340.747.817.246,55020.34
East53.3439.523.8143.2035.608.915.766,24319.39
Hokowhitu43.2750.153.8253.3224.0812.354.374,48113.92
Other votes47.5443.166.3144.6533.1712.024.606,59720.49
National party votes in Palmerston North at the 2011 general election.
National party votes in Palmerston North at the 2011 general election.
Labour party votes in Palmerston North at the 2011 general election.
Labour party votes in Palmerston North at the 2011 general election.
Green party votes in Palmerston North at the 2011 general election.
Green party votes in Palmerston North at the 2011 general election.
Labour candidate votes in Palmerston North at the 2011 general election.
Labour candidate votes in Palmerston North at the 2011 general election.
National candidate votes in Palmerston North at the 2011 general election.
National candidate votes in Palmerston North at the 2011 general election.

1 COMMENT

Comments are closed.