LIB 19.1%
Incumbent MP
Michael Richardson, since 2007. Previously Member for The Hills 1993-2007.
Geography
Northwestern Sydney. Castle Hill covers parts of the Hills Shire, and a small part of Hornsby Shire. Suburbs include Carlingford, Castle Hill and West Pennant Hills.
History
Castle Hill was created in 2007, replacing the former seat of The Hills. The Hills had existed since 1962, and had always been held by Liberal MPs.
The Hills was first won in 1962 by Max Ruddock, a former president of Hornsby Shire. He served as a minister in the Coalition state government from 1975 to 1976. Shortly after the government lost power in 1976, Ruddock announced his retirement, and died six days later. His son Phillip was elected to the House of Representatives in 1973 and still serves there today.
The 1976 by-election was won by Fred Caterson. He held the seat until he resigned from Parliament in 1990.
Another by-election in 1990 was won by former car dealer Tony Packard. He was re-elected in 1991, but resigned in 1993 after being convicted of installing listening devices illegally when he worked as a car dealer.
The 1993 by-election was won by Liberal candidate Michael Richardson. He held The Hills until 2007, when he won election to the renamed seat of Castle Hill.
Candidates
- Ari Katsoulas (Family First)
- Alex Wallbank (Greens)
- Aileen Mountfield (Christian Democratic Party)
- Aaron Mendham (Independent)
- Dominic Perrottet (Liberal)
- Ryan Tracey (Labor)
Political situation
Castle Hill is a very safe Liberal seat.
2007 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Michael Richardson | LIB | 24,999 | 56.5 | +6.7 |
| Alex Mustafa | ALP | 10,138 | 22.9 | -5.9 |
| Carol Flanagan | GRN | 3,961 | 9.0 | +2.1 |
| Darryl Allen | CDP | 2,362 | 5.3 | +0.9 |
| Sheng Lin | UNI | 1,987 | 4.5 | +0.8 |
| Mervyn Foley | AAFI | 780 | 1.8 | +0.4 |
2007 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Michael Richardson | LIB | 27,340 | 69.1 | +8.3 |
| Alex Mustafa | ALP | 12,240 | 30.9 | -8.3 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Castle Hill have been divided into three areas. Booths in Hornsby Shire have been grouped as “northeast”, and booths in The Hills have been divided between “south” and “northwest”.
The Liberal Party two-party margin varied from 70.9% in the northwest to 65.3% in the south.
| Voter group | GRN % | LIB 2CP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Northwest | 8.4 | 70.9 | 14,282 | 32.3 |
| South | 9.4 | 65.3 | 12,931 | 29.2 |
| Northeast | 8.3 | 68.5 | 7,151 | 16.2 |
| Other votes | 9.8 | 71.9 | 9,863 | 22.3 |
I wonder if that small 90% booth can swing any higher…
That’s the Anglican retirement villages and there would be only 100 or so votes in each of them
Also entering the field here is 25 year-old independent Aaron Mendham.
Once was introduced to a Anglican retirement village resident who had been a British Labour campaign director in 1945 but she was in a very small minority
The 90% Lib booth is in the Anglican Retirement Village. Labor is often extremely short on the ground with many locals being called out to marginals.
In fact, the Federal seat of Mitchell only has 1 ALP branch in it. That branch controls both Castle Hill and Baulkham Hills
ARC is usually not staffed at all. Some campaigns letterbox how to vote cards in advance which must not have been done in 2007.
My prediction: Liberal retain, 5-10% swing.
Here is a link to Aaron Mendham’s website
A further candidate is Ari Katsoulas for Family First.