ALP 7.0% vs IND
Incumbent MP
Matthew Morris, since 2003.
Geography
Hunter. Charlestown covers northeastern parts of the City of Lake Macquarie, just south of Newcastle. Suburbs include Charlestown, Kahibah, Cardiff, Gateshead, Warners Bay and Kotara South.
History
The seat of Charlestown was first created for the 1971 election. A change in redistribution rules saw the lower Hunter included in the central zone, leading to a loss of a Newcastle seat. Kahibah and Hamilton were merged and Charlestown was created in their place.
The first member for Charlestown was the ALP’s Jack Stewart, who had previously held the seat of Kahibah from 1957 until its abolition in 1971. He held the seat for 18 months until his death in 1972.
The 1972 by-election was won by the ALP’s Richard Face. He held the seat for the next thirty years until his retirement in 2003, serving as Minister for Gaming and Racing from 1995 to 2003.
In 2003, the seat was won by the ALP’s Matthew Morris. In 2007, Morris retained his seat with a 7% margin over Lake Macquarie councillor Paul Scarfe, running as an independent.
Candidates
- Steven Camilleri (Christian Democratic Party)
- Bruce Foley (Family First)
- Craig Oaten (Fishing Party)
- Barry Johnston (Independent)
- Andrew Cornwell (Liberal)
- Ben McMullen (Independent)
- Matthew Morris (Labor)
- Adrian Schofield (Independent)
- Paula Morrow (Greens)
- Arjay Martin (Independent)
Political situation
The margin in this seat is based on a strong independent contender running against the ALP. This seat is a very weak one for the Liberal Party. If a strong independent runs, this seat could be vulnerable, considering that we have seen independent Greg Piper win in Lake Macquarie and John Tate come close in Newcastle.
2007 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Matthew Morris | ALP | 18,663 | 43.5 | -6.3 |
| Paul Scarfe | IND | 10,531 | 24.6 | +24.6 |
| Lindsay Paterson | LIB | 7,988 | 18.6 | -10.2 |
| Jane Smith | GRN | 4,378 | 10.2 | +1.7 |
| Jim Kendall | CDP | 1,342 | 3.1 | +0.9 |
2007 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Matthew Morris | ALP | 21,139 | 57.0 | |
| Paul Scarfe | IND | 15,924 | 43.0 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Charlestown have been divided into five areas: Newcastle at the northern end of the seat, Cardiff in the northwest, Warners Bay in the southwest, Gateshead in the southeast, and Charlestown in the centre of the seat.
The ALP vote varied from almost 56% in Gateshead to less than 37% in Newcastle. Independent Paul Scarfe performed strongest in Warners Bay with 28% and Charlestown with 27%. The Liberal Party’s vote peaked at over 20% in Warners Bay and Newcastle.
| Voter group | ALP % | IND % | LIB % | GRN % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Charlestown | 41.7 | 27.5 | 17.2 | 10.6 | 10,348 | 24.1 |
| Warners Bay | 39.1 | 28.2 | 20.8 | 8.6 | 8,801 | 20.5 |
| Newcastle | 36.9 | 26.5 | 20.2 | 13.0 | 5,914 | 13.8 |
| Gateshead | 55.9 | 19.5 | 12.3 | 9.4 | 5,773 | 13.5 |
| Cardiff | 46.9 | 24.2 | 17.1 | 8.7 | 3,950 | 9.2 |
| Other votes | 44.7 | 19.2 | 22.3 | 10.8 | 8,086 | 18.9 |
LIbs came within 100 votes in 1988 more vulnerable than it looks but Labor will hope that preferences exhaust.
Lib’s have a strong candidate in Andrew Cornwell and Matthew Morris is doing little to defray the current State Labor odour. Will be a crowded seat that will make it harder for the Lib’s as the primary vote will be split many ways. Geoff is correct…this will favour Morris who will be hoping the preferences don’t flow and that his base-line Labor vote will be sufficient. Past Labor voters will find the leap to Liberal very hard and may settle for Greens or independent Barry Johnston. Comes down then to preferences. One to watch for an upset…tipping Lib’s.
I have heard good things about Andrew who is the Liberal Candidate for Charlestown. It may be a 2 way tussle. If Barry Johnston and Paul Scarfe re nominate as Independents. Will be a interesting seat to watch.
The liberal party are devoting significant resources to this seat. They believe Labor’s primary vote will drop, split to independents, and the liberals could come up the inside and win on primaries or preferences in a tight 3-way race.
Lachlan – anyones seat. Independent most likely.
Morris has hardly inspired the community. He appears to often be missing in action and is living proof that you don’t have to do much to hold onto a seat in Newcastle.
Anyone got a Dice to roll? It’s the only way I would be calling this seat.
The notional 2PP margin ALP v Lib here is 14.6%. It’s not that weak an area for Libs and they’d have a strong sniff if it weren’t for the Independents complicating the picture.
Barry Johnston is definitely running, and has a website:
http://barryjohnstonforcharlestown.com.au/
I believe he was elected as an ALP councillor in 2004, but quit the party and was re-elected to council as an independent in 2008. My recollection could be wrong so please correct me if I’m wrong because I haven’t double-checked to confirm that.
Another candidate listed on Antony Green’s guide is Bruce Foley for Family First.
My prediction: I think Barry Johnston will win this by a margin between 4-8%, but this all depends on who finishes with the highest primaries.
Matthew Who? Morris has done nothing for Charlestown just like his predecessor Richard Face did for 30 years. Speak up Charlestown,take a stand and get behind someone who cares – Andrew Cornwell.
There are four other candidates here. Craig Oaten for the Fishing Party, and no less than 3 other independents.
Adrian Schofield is an insurance risk consultant who is reportedly campaigning on a platform of zero tolerance for anti-social behaviour, particularly graffiti and vandalism.
I can’t find much on the other two, Ben McMullen and Arjay Martin.
Nick C, any candidate that runs on the platform of zero tolerance for policing will get nowhere, I have sat with police in community meetings for over 20 years and they have stated no way. Their reasons are simple, they don’t have enough police and for every person they have to arrest it takes them off the street and back to the station to charge them. Juveniles get a ‘hands off’ approach anyway and get to conciliate with the victims of their crimes, then they go straight back out and do it all again. Most nights in the Charlestown electorate there are only 2 general duty police cars on and perhaps 1 highway patrol, they are 44 officers down on authorised strength in Lake Macquarie. Politicians need to stop talking and show some action on this, also detectives need an increase so they can investigate crime properly.
If the Libs form government then what are their platforms going to be on policing. They need an influx of extra police to replace the ones that are leaving in droves, and no its not necessarily the money (thought they deserve more), its the fact they are continually getting bashed by blokes younger than themselves and end up going off on HOD (Hurt on Duty), if they want to leave it takes years for them to get paid out. I would be interested to hear what Andrew Cornwall has to say about this?
I’d suggest the ALP is the least likely of the 3 to win this now. Johnston has to be favourite, but wouldn’t be surprised if the Liberal got up.
Libs are having a good go at this one. Morris, and should be, worried. Barry Johnston is a strong show as well, but the key is flow of preferences. Nobody will go close to winning on primaries, and the main three candidates will be very close to each other on primary vote. Morris’s 18000 votes will come down to maybe 13-14000 or less, Ind vote up by 2000, libs up a few thousand at least, and Greens will be steady or up slightly. Geez it’s gonna be close. Whoever finishes ahead on primaries of Johnston and Cornwall should take the seat, as long as preferences flow
With a big pre-poll we won’t know the result of this for days.
As an aside, Ben, have you ever thought of doing an analysis of the startling and major growth of pre-poll in recent elections. It really is a psephological phenomena.
My problem with Barry Johnson is the fact that he was originally Matthew Morris’s campaign manager when he first got in. Then Johnson was voted onto Lake Macquarie Council under the ALP banner, he didn’t stick with his party on votes and went on to vote for developers which put him against the ALP. Is he just going this to get back at Morris?
Johnston and the Liberals are swapping preferences. The Greens meanwhile are not directing preferences. Presumably whoever finishes ahead out of Johnston or Cornwell will win.
Hey Elizabeth, I mean Verita, I think you need to close your laptop and put some cartoons on, how can someone who is from Coffs, now living in Sydney, be “Johnny on the spot” whenever anything happens in the hunter????? Be it Charlestown, Swansea or any other electorate……. If I had to guess, I would say that you are closely linked to the Labor Party. If you have anything to say that is heresay or blatant lies, as you have been caught out before, I think you should best keep it to yourself and not start any muck on here…….
END OF SOAPBOX MOMENT….
I was the Liberal Candidtae inCharlestown NSW in 1988 and on first count lost the election by 3 votes after an exhaustive recount and three weeks later I lost by 64 votes. Congratulations to the new Member for Charlestown..