Hinchinbrook by-election, 2025

Why on earth is Gympie suggesting a Labor win?

Gympie are you cracked? Labor couldn’t win this if they were only up against ONP. The only way labor can win here is if they were unopposed.

Must have a had a few too many last night

Either that or it’s Maurie Soars posting

Raue is there a tool you use to determine new margins? How is it calculated?

Reading [between the lines of] Chiesa’s screed, Labor was lavishing the pork barrel on Hinchinbrook since 2017 and Crisafulli nailed the lid shut.
That might explain why Dametto bailed for greener pastures?

@Gympie “Why would Katter retire in 2028?” Because it doesn’t take a lot to end up with significant changes to Kennedy after the 2026 Federal redistribution. Kennedy will get bigger – Kennedy, Leichardt, Maranoa, Capricornia, Herbert and Dawson are all under quota and getting worse.

The State redistribution is also problematic for Robbie Katter. I don’t think Hill will be abolished, but both Mirani and Hill will have significant changes. And since there’s no future little Katters on the horizon to pass the crown along it might be the perfect opportunity for Robbie to take the throne.

@John Not really. FFP can’t deliver preferences because they don’t staff up enough to put HTVs in the hands of voters. Irrespective of how they direct preferences, most of their voters are either FFP ALP or FFP LNP – once they vote FFP the preferences head back to their ideological roots.

To be fair, the only changes that are needed for Kennedy federally are minimal, and probably just scrape into the western part of Herbert, to make up for losing some southern Cairns suburbs.

If the Queensland state redistribution does abolish a rural seat, it won’t be north of Townsville City.

If Queensland gains an extra seat, you could very easily make an argument for both of Leichhardt and Kennedy to remain unchanged.

@gympie i imagine the Mayoralty is alot easier as he only has to deal with townsville rather then a whole electorate. meaning less travelling.

@mark did you mean Burdekin? Hill would probably only have minor changes.

@CJ best to move this conversation to the federal redistributions page https://www.tallyroom.com.au/62764/comment-page-4#comments keep Raue happy.

If the libs had of ran a community based candidate they may have actually been in the running to take the seat. Or more so.

Wayde Chiesa is a lifetime local, the problem is Hinchinbrook has never been a Liberal seat.
Between 1920 and 2017 it was either a Labor seat or a National Party seat.
Labor weren’t in the running in 2017, but a KAP win was still one less seat for the LNP at a time when LNP had 43 of the 89 seats.
I’d say LNP has turned off the Labor porkbarreling in Hinchinbrook, which doomed Dametto, but it’s likely to turn out badly for the LNP.
Only 1 year in, the only issue Crisafulli is rated above water on is the Olypics delivery, which is rated #1 by 1% of those surveyed.
In other words, they’re history in 2028, voters in Hinchinbrook might as well get in on the ground floor early and vote Labor.

Gympie please stop the exaggeration labor aren’t winning here in 2025 or govt in 2028. Labor could only win this seat if they were the only ones running

is there any news on the ground of pre poll how its going?

Situation in State sugar seats is the sitting member usually keeps getting returned because it’s his job [plus his staff], and jobs are hard to find in these areas.
The only Party changes in Hinchinbrook in a century have been the election following the Labor loss in 1957 and the LNP loss in 2015. Keep in mind that the State seat of Kennedy abolished in the 1949 redistribution was essentially Hinchinbrook.
Seeing as Hinchinbrook has never elected a Liberal MP and KAP is more or less a Labor proxy, i’m confident Labor will win on Saturday and Crisafulli will be on notice.

Gympie you keep telling yourself that even after labor fail to poll 20% rimary vote

Labor could win the next state election, but are next to no chance this Saturday in Hinchinbrook.

@Gympie if Labor get 15%, they should throw a party.

Real talk in order to win they need to dump smiles as leader. The lips should have had a larger majority but were hamstrung by Katter and the abortion debate. Robbie may well be off the Canberra before the next election. Once people realise that abortion was never on the table their vote in Brisbane should improve.

Anyway if the qlec were to remove the cassowary coast to bring Hinchinbrook back to quota. I don’t think it will have any effect on the margin or maybe a slight shift to lnp given the amount of voters there is minimal

“Gympie you keep telling yourself that even after labor fail to poll 20% rimary vote”
Tactical voting, Labor has been doing it in seats they couldn’t win long before the Teals showed up. Keeping Dametto in place denied the LNP a seat.
Now Hinchinbrook is up for taws again, KAP has no cards, they’ve never returned a Liberal before, who’s left?

Gympie labor haven’t won hinchinbrook since the Alkaline Battery was invented

One nation would win hinchinbrrok before labor did.

This bye-election has been pretty quiet in terms of reporting. There hasn’t any polling published in the media from what I have seen. There hasn’t been any predictions from state politcal commentators either probably due to a minor party causing it and whether there will be a backlash. I think these factors nobody wants to stick there neck out to make a prediction.

I remember Maryborough had a bye-election caused by a One Nation mp retiring dues to ill health. The major parties couldn’t seem to get any traction and it was won by independent Chris Foley. So there is a little more of a uncertainty around these bye-elections resulting from minor parties then the major parties.

Miles saved the furniture for the ALP and had a better campaign than Crisafulli, whose own candidates were undermining him on the abortion issue, never mind Katter. To the premier’s credit, the issue hasn’t surfaced in his term of government (yet).

If Palaszczuk had remained leader, I dont think she wins 35 seats.

Miles is also somewhat competitive in the preferred premier survey, certainly better than any other opposition leader who still has their job after this week.

A relatively poor result in Hinchinbrook (14% or less on primary) might put him under a fraction of heat but I doubt it will induce a challenge. Labor have no expectations of winning Hinchinbrook.

The premier, on the other hand, has been very prominent and visible in the LNP Hinchinbrook campaign. A relatively poor result (36% 2PP or less) there will reflect much worse on him given his personal investment in this seat, although his job is safe.

I will say one thing listening to Gympie offering the best Labor spin and John’s hype that the Liberals are one election away from world domination is entertaining…

I don’t think Labor will take any result of theirs in this seat too seriously, given they were LNPeer Pressured into running, and are most likely running dead anyway.

A swing to KAP on a 2CP basis is bad news for Crisafulli, as it signals a shift away from the LNP as a whole.

@Craig yes it’s certainly entertaining.

@CJ Labor didn’t take their campaign in Petrie too seriously either, and they won anyway, the MP asked a question this afternoon.
Byelections are notorious for protest votes, Crisafulli is like Newman, he hasn’t done anything so far for the bush, I wouldn’t imagine too many voters in Ingham care what a good job he’s done on the Brisbane Olympics.

Yea I wish they were…. I’m simply saying a labor win is fanciful. Gympie well that’s because Peter Dutton did labor’s campaigning for them. If anyone’s protesting they’ll be voting one nation not labor.

Real talk I think you forgot Jess Wilson in Victoria. But other than that I’d say it’s close. Speak a wasn’t doing such a bad job either his problem was visibility no one knew who he was. Don’t get me started on Susan Ley or Tarzia.

@cj if they get a swing away from them they got real problems given Dametto had such a personal vote

In terms of opposition parties who have the best chance of winning their next election, be it state or federal, I’d be ranking their likelihoods of winning as follows:

1. QLD Labor
2. VIC Coalition
3. NSW Coalition
4. WA Liberals/Nationals
5. Federal Coalition
6. NT Labor
7. TAS Labor
8. ACT Liberals
9. SA Liberals

It’s QLD Labor first, daylight second.

yea i can sorta agree to that. Now that Wilson is leader of Victoria id say Liberals are half a chance of taking government though. I cant see see the NSW libs winning in 2027 but i think they can push labor into a deeper minority. Queensland has a redistribution pending so thats a curveball to that list. WA i can see maybe the libs and nats being able to get together enough seats. currently i can see them getting to 27 seats (just short) but im also hoping the wa govt will add some more seats to solve the perth population problem. whcih is being imbalanced by the LDA propping up the regional ones. I cant see te Federal Liberals winning their next bout. NT is always a wildcard but dont think the current NT govt will lose. SA libs wont be winning the next election even if Malinauskas runs over a nun in Rundle Mall.

Tas Labor has declined to govern three times in the last two years. The biggest threat to Tas Labor getting into government is Tas Labor.

agreed they cant govern without the greens and they hate each others guts.

if labor were in such a running to win they wouldnt have needed the LNP to effectively dare them to run a candidate

Labor in Qld are always pessimistic.
Whether their polling lets them down, I don’t know, article in the C-M last week stated Labor were intending to dump Palaszczuk after the 2015 elections, right up to Election Day.
LNP polling had told them they were gone back in July 2014.

That was right before Abbott knighted Prince Phillip..

Newman should have called the election in September when Newspoll had them ahead 54-46

I like CJs list. I would say there is a huge gap between 3 & 4. We can run scenarios all day long about QLD Vic and NSW state elections but the rest are frozen unless something dramatic happens.

I think everyone expects a drop in the KAP margin in the by just as a matter of course but if Malachino wins comfortably I wonder what that says about Crisafulli since he invested some personal political capital into this race. He doesn’t seem to be as reactionary for a Liberal compared to the Federal party.

I would say that the wa libs are 3 and nsw is 4.

@John WA Labor would need a uniform swing of about 10% just to lose their majority.

*10% against them.

WA Liberals have more runway to work with and time will be sagging Labor more though, NSW Liberals just seem to have very little idea of who they are and Minns hasn’t made the sort of mistakes that condemn first term governments, for NSW Liberals just to save the furniture would be a mean feat

How I would rank odds of govt changing

1. VIC
Gap
2. QLD
3. TAS
Gap
4. WA
5. NSW
Gap
6. FED
7. ACT
8. NT
Literally fucking zero
9. SA

@cj just losing their majority is losing government….
Also that’s pending the redistribution.

The LNP have flown in volunteers from Brissie who are mostly young LNP uni types which is causing a cultural clash with the other parties who are relying on local volunteers. This could come back to bite them- nothing like a uni student from Brissie wearing R M Williams and a brand new Akubra cosplaying as a North QLDer.

Political commentator Paul Williams has said the Katter Australia Party are a shoo-in to retain Hinchinbrook on Saturday.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-11-27/crisafulli-kap-hitchinbrook-by-election-north-queensland/106054982

Agreed its hard enough for a govt to take seat off the opposition at.a by election. Let alone and minority party that’s built on populism. Labor and greens sending preferences will ensure they retain.

@CJ @Scart some interesting thoughts there.

I would rank it as of right now:

1. Victoria (55%) — unpopular government

2. Queensland (33%) — competent government, rebuilt opposition
3. NSW (28%) — competent government and opposition
4. Tassie (23%) — competent government and a divided opposition
5. WA (18%) — hard to build from with so few seats
6. **Federal** (17%) — again hard to build on from so few seats even if Labor are unpopular
7. *Brisbane* (15%) — competent and popular incumbents and an opposition who spent years being incompetent and thus barely winning any seats
7. ACT (13%) — aging government but quite a progressive jurisdiction
8. NT (12%) — competent and popular government, small opposition off the back of a historic landslide loss
9. SA (3%) — competent and popular government with a divided opposition

Clearly the three most populous states look the most competitive.