Hinchinbrook by-election, 2025

Thanks for sharing John. And for those of you not on Facebook:
https://www.onenation.org.au/early-voting-hinchinbrook

So to summarise:
LNP 1 KAP 1
ONP>LNP ALP>KAP
FFP>KAP

Anyone seen the GRN or IND HTV?

We can just assume GRn>kap. One will prbly stay neutral vote 1 one number all squares

Ind*

Agreed greens will probably be
1. Green
2. labor
3. Katter
4. Liberal?
5. Family First?
6. Independent
7. One Nation

I’m not sure about the independent but given he’s former onp. If he did it would probably be.
1. Independent
2. One nation
3. LNP?
4. Family First?
5. Katter
6.Labor
7. Green

The fact the map candidate is a former labor member is probably what turned one nation off Katter this time.

With early voting already beginning there would obviously be a htv card for the greens maybe the ind anyone on the ground in Townsville able to check it out?

According to the Townsville Bulletin, a bit of trouble for the LNP: “Premier Crisafulli’s Hinchinbrook candidate is being given the cold shoulder by local LNP members, who’ve abandoned pre-polling booths, forcing the party to import Brisbane volunteers. LATEST: https://bit.ly/3LKNvcd ”

The Bulletin is the bastard child of the Courier Mail, so take what they say with a grain of salt.

this is problem for jobs for mates candidates

Could be a grain of truth in the story, LNP have had trouble finding volunteers since Abbott won, Brisbane blow ins are likely to be young, male and fairly abrasive.
Courier-Mail have been running hard against LNP on Health, have also noticed Police speed traps for the first time since the Newman Government went away and speed cameras appearing. That’s Brisbane, if it happening in Townsville too, which i’m thinking it is, then i’m predicting a Labor win.

Yea labor aren’t winning this

@Gympie Townsvillite here, I’ve seen plenty of speed traps around in recent months

The Labor candidate getting spicy at a polling booth. One of the imported LNP volunteers has been filming.

https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/queensland/shocked-and-ashamed-labor-candidate-threatens-to-take-out-lnp-volunteer-20251120-p5nh2f.html

Scart can you tell us what the ind is preferencing if at all and confirm the obvious grn > kap?

Here’s a thought don’t speed. Then you got nothing to worry about. That’s just like complaining you’ve been arrested for murder because someone dobbed you in.

The independent is saying choose you own preferences (called it). Greens are saying
1. Green
2. labor
3. Katter
4. Liberal
5. Independent
6. Family First
7. One Nation

(i only got the FF and Ind wrong)

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=1264367635736007&set=p.1264367635736007&type=3

Nick Dametto the big winner so far. Obviously no percentage in voting KAP just to elect a former Labor man, no wonder Katter was fired up at the last Question Time.
Noticeable Police Traffic enforcement presence after they’d spent 9 years back at the Station hurts the LNP even if it’s nothing to do with them.
Panic stations if they lose, which i’m predicting and a certain 1 Term Government.

wtf does policing have to do with the govt. only people to be concerned are criminals

Police is a state responsibility?

For what it’s worth, I haven’t noticed an increase or decrease in speed traps since the LNP was elected.

Bit early to declare the LNP one-term wonders.

@Real Talk
History points that way, though. Denham 1912-15; Moore 1929-32; Borbidge 1996-98; Newman 2012-15.
The Coalition Government 1957-89 is the outlier, the only Public Service boss Nicklin dismissed in 1957 was the Police Commissioner, who’d only been appointed that year.
Steven Miles also appointed a new Commissionere a few months before he lost office in 2024.

History also pointed to Labor losing seats at the federal election.

The 2012 and 2015 elections in themselves should be permanent pointers that anything is possible in Queensland.

Gympie so it’s the govt fault people are breaking the law?

Traffic Policing is proactive.
If the red light cameras are switched off and speed traps not set up, does that mean voters are obeying all Traffic laws while driving?

So it’s the governments fault for enforcing the law? So if someone has something and I want it and there’s no cops around I can just take it?

“History also pointed to Labor losing seats at the federal election.”

Yes and no. It gets often missed Bob Hawke didn’t win half or more of the seats in Queensland until his third election. Which Albo is mimicking with his steady increase of seats in Queensland. After only winning five Queensland seats in his first election in 2022.

I take your point nationally though. First federal government returning to retain every one of its seats since Harold Holt’s Coalition victory in 1966.

Tbf Labor did pick up Dawson prior to the 1966 election, and held it later that year. But yes.

Labor won’t be repeating that in 2028. Id be surprised if labor wins any seats at the next election. Of course that depends on the coalition actually improving……..

It’s been reported Bob Katter and Pauline Hanson have had a heated phone call about the One Nation preferencing LNP over KAP in the Courier Mail. You do wonder if this preference decision will cost KAP the seat as it did in Mirani at the state election. One Polling has improved since then.

The parties had a falling out, understood to be over KAP luring MP Stephen Andrew from One Nation and teaming up with former Senator Gerrard Rennick at the federal election.

PN – I was referring to a government gaining seats at its first re-election, something that hadn’t happened since Federation. I was also referring to the entire nation, not just Queensland. Most of the intelligent commentariat here were pining for minority government as a best case scenario. Any predictions for an election that is years away is little more than fan fiction at this stage.

Holt is a terrible comparison as he was a fresh face leading a seven-term government and was running for re-election against a fossil.

I think KAP should still retain. They’ve got labor greens and ff preferences and I dare say the inds voters will favor KAP as he’s come out against “the.majors”. Any increase in onp will be at the expense of both Kap and lnp. Though with the loss of personal vote and the Kap candidates history. I will say this could be close. Won’t be shocked at an lnp win. But I’m tipping Kap by anywhere from 2-6%.

The lnp have 2 things working against them. National polling and the captains pick.

Real talk they were able to gain seats due to the incompetence of the liberal party. Maybe a bit of trump. Mediscare and vote buying just iced the cake

John, I was there.

Everyone seems to be missing the main point. Just because something happened or didn’t happen in the past, doesn’t mean it won’t or will definitely happen in the future.

under normal circumstances history is usually pretty constant. the same with bellwether seats. the liberal party atm is diabolical. dutton ran a pretty disciplined opposition and the party towed the line. but when the campaign started the wheels fell off. they got into a fight over working from home when they should have just let it pass. the lnp did something similar with 50c fares. they probly didnt want to continue it but labor would have made it an election issue and won votes because who wouldnt want cheap fares? i think the lnp will keep it going til the next election then they should scrap it because its a huge revenue loss.it was sold as a cost of living issue and that cant continue forever,

Bob Katter is the day before yesterday’s man, Dametto saw the writing on the wall and left for greener pastures while he still could.
15% PV for KAP would be a good result, preferences deals will get Labor over the line here.

15% PV for KAP would be a good result, preferences deals will get Labor over the line here.

@Gympie

Gympie Labor’s not winning this seat. They weren’t even going to contest because they have no chance. But gave in to pressure that local branch members and voters should have a candidate to support.. This prediction is way out of the realm of being plausible or realistic. It will be between LNP and KAP.

Gympie labo cannot win this seat and wont not while KAP is contesting. Labor will be lucky to get 15% PV. i think im thinkingit might be 30% PV for KAP 35% LNP. Dametto s Personal vote is gonna show here.

@PN i think labor also wanted to keep it off the LNP by making ure their preferences got to KAP.

if KAP scores 15% PV the LNP are winning this by about 10%. KAP has taken an each way bet. couple that with ONP preferencing Libs and i think they should get at least 10% PV. around 15% for Labor and 55 each for the greens and the Ind. townsville makes up about 75% of the seat if memory serves me correctly. the regional vote would still swing it in the LNP favour if it came down to LIB v LAB.

@Political Nightwatchman
Labor policy is to contest all seats. Of course they don’t put resources into seats they don’t consider winnable, but they won Petrie anyway with an unknown unresourced candidate.
Katter’s habit of playing Ducks ‘n drakes on preferences has caught up with him, Hanson has finally woken up.
Problem for LNP is the tide has gone out for them pretty quickly everywhere now it’s clear that they can’t wield political power because they don’t have any.

Gympie while true they usually never contest by elections they cant win. especially by elections they wont even make the 2pp. their motive here i assume is to stop the lnp winning the seat.Petrie was won off the back of a poor liberal campaign and maybe trump. dollars to donuts they will lose it again in 2028. assuming the federal lnp can find a spine. Lbaor wont win this and il bet anything wont make the 2pp. labor would need a bare minimum of about 35-40% PV to win here. its been about 20 years since their vote was that high here. labor havent won this seat in 3/4 of a century.

The Labor candidate has turned into something of a crank – he was caught threatening to cut the b*lls off of a younger LNP volunteer.

I tend to agree with John on this one. I see a KAP victory, and a margin of 2-6% seems reasonable.

Bob Katter is vintage – a relic of the past for anyone under the age of 45, no more evident than that tirade a couple of months ago that made the rounds on TikTok. That said, KAP is popular in Northern QLD and probably will endure for some time.

If Labor bucked the odds in May against 2022, the odds will undoubtedly be longer in 2028. That is assuming the Liberals are in one piece by then. I just watched a vignette of Kellie Sloane’s interview on 10News, and she basically said that the Federals do one thing, we do another in response to a question about Net Zero and the state Liberals’ continued commitment. The Liberals are at an inflexion point in their history, much like the ALP in the 50s with the DLP. So anything could happen.

@craig i will confrim that isnt entireely true i met Katter in April at the pub test with Hanson and Canavan in tweed heads. i called in sick to work to meet him. i live and work in albury but happened to be on the GC for supanova that weekend but when i found out he was gonna be there i stayed an extra day and told work my train was late getting home. (it may well have been as sometimes is) just to meet Katter and get a photo with him. i also asked his staff if i could get a signed Katter Yard Sign (which im still waiting for)

@PN i think labor also wanted to keep it off the LNP by making ure their preferences got to KAP.

@John

No. They would prefer Katter Party to win, but not that much for the sake of contesting. Actually, there is an argument Labor may help Katter Australia Party more by not contesting. The non-LNP vote may solidify more behind the Katter party candidate rather than splinter. Obviously, the Greens vote would benefit from Labor not providing a candidate too. I know Labor didn’t contest the Toowoomba South bye-election for this reason; it was going to make the LNP job harder to win. Where the Labor vote solidified behind the independent former Toowoomba mayor Di Thorley.

@PN look how that turned out in Prahran

Well, I am sure Old Bob is a fine bloke in the right setting, but anyone who feels threatened by their heritage in this day and age is living in the past. It’s like when your conspiracy-theory uncle is fighting with your perpetual-victim auntie at the far end of the Christmas lunch table.

If you live in Albury, I will take a wild guess that you put Emma Hicks #1.

ON usually preferences against incumbents but I don’t know why they would want to see an expanded LNP majority. If KAP wins, they will probably be safe in the seat. If the LNP wins, they would be under threat from KAP and/or ON in the next election.

Athol Thomas actually i moved from Wodonga. so i was still registed in Indi.

but my mum did. my reasoning was whoever gets the PV gets the $. libs still get the vote.

ON usually preferences against incumbents but I don’t know why they would want to see an expanded LNP majority.

@Craig

Because KAP did the dirty on them, recruiting then Mirani MP Stephen Andrew from One Nation. They are no longer going to be prefernce buddies anymore, which they see as an act of treason. Realistically, One Nation usually preference against the LNP in the contests that don’t matter to them. They do preference deals with the LNP in the regions. It’s a difficult juggling act because some of their working-class regional base have Labor sympathies, so they don’t want to alienate them. So they are careful not to be seen as too close to the LNP for this reason. They pretend to nuance their position to avoid looking like a preference harvester for the LNP.

PN One Nation also preference against moderates who they see as too left leaning. There is also the fact the KAP candidate is a former labor member which might have influence the decision. if ONP had of preference KAP it would of been a slam dunk retain for KAP now id say the LNP have half a chance at winning. although current federal polling and the jobs for mates candidate might hurt them

One Nation also preference against moderates who they see as too left leaning. There is also the fact the KAP candidate is a former labor member which might have influence the decision.

@john

It’s not the real reason that they have stated publicly, they are just using that just an excuse. One Nation has preference Labor Mp’s Joanne Miller and Leanne Linard in the past. Linard was done because they preference an LNP MP under threat in his marginal seat on the Gold Coast. But preferencing Linard in Nudgee, a seat the LNP had no chance of winning, was just giving them cover for looking like they were not working in tandem with the LNP. So I can’t see how they would have a problem with the Katter candidate being a former member of the Labour Party. One Nation gave former federal Labor leader Mark Latham a winnable state senate seat for goodness’ sake.

Looks like One Nation has foreseen a Labor win in Hinchinbrook and don’t want to carry the can for it.
Sure, the Labor candidate may be a bit wild, but horses for courses, what plays well in Clayfield may not resonate in the North.

Yeah, I dont see Labor winning this.