Greenway – Election 2010

ALP 5.7%

Incumbent MP
Louise Markus, since 2004.

Geography
Western Suburbs of Sydney. Greenway covers the eastern parts of the City of Blacktown and some parts of Parramatta and Holroyd council areas. Suburbs include Lalor Park, Seven Hills, Blacktown, Toongabbie, Girraween, Pendle Hill, The Ponds and Riverstone.

Redistribution
Greenway was radically redrawn for the 2007 election, and then again for the 2010 election. At the 2007 election, Greenway covered Hawkesbury, as well as northern parts of Blacktown council area and a small part of Penrith LGA. Indeed, less than half of the population on the new boundaries were contained within Greenway, with the rest contained in Chifley and Parramatta. The redistribution flipped the margin from 4.5% for the Liberal Party to 5.7% for the ALP, completely changing the seat. Looking at the history of Greenway’s boundaries, the 2007 boundaries were an anomaly, and the 2010 boundaries more align with those used at the 2004 election and before that.

History
Greenway was first created in 1984, and was held relatively comfortably by the ALP throughout the 1980s and 1990s.

The seat was first won by Russell Gorman in 1984. Gorman had previously held Chifley from 1983 until he moved to Greenway in 1984. He was succeeded by Frank Mossfield in 1996.

Mossfield retired at the 2004 election, and the ALP stood Ed Husic, while the Liberals stood Louise Markus. The ALP’s margin had been cut to 3% at the 2001 election, and in 2004 Markus managed to win the seat.

The 2007 election saw the seat redistributed radically, and the Liberal margin was increased from 50.6% to 61.3%. A swing of almost 7% was suffered against Markus, but she held on under the new boundaries. The recent redistribution saw the boundary changes largely reversed, and the new margin saw Markus shift to the neighbouring seat of Macquarie, which is currently held by the ALP.

Candidates

  • Michelle Rowland (Labor)
  • Jaymes Diaz (Liberal)
  • Michael Santos (Independent)
  • Tony Pettitt (Australia First)
  • Allan Green (Christian Democratic Party)
  • John Baiada (Building Australia)
  • Ronaldo Villaver (Democrats)
  • Joaquim De Lima (Liberal Democrats)
  • Amarjit Tanda (Independent)
  • Paul Taylor (Greens)
  • Iris Muller (Family First)

Political situation
This seat should return to the ALP on the new boundaries. While the seat was won by the Liberal Party on similar boundaries in 2004, they were in much more favourable circumstances for the Liberals.

2007 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Louise MarkusLIB40,33850.10-5.07
Michael VassiliALP30,97338.47+9.11
Leigh WilliamsGRN4,6175.73+0.20
John PhillipsCDP1,7112.12-0.07
F IvorIND1,3431.67+1.44
Joanne MullerFF1,3121.63+0.09
Goran RevesCEC2280.28+0.16

2007 two-candidate-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Louise MarkusLIB43,88154.50-6.85
Michael VassiliALP36,64145.50+6.85

Results do not take into consideration effects of the redistribution.

Booth breakdown
I have divided booths into three areas. Those north of Westlink, those south of Fitzwilliam Road and the railway line, and those in the centre. The ALP won a majority in all three areas, although it was a slim majority in the north, about 57% in the central area, and over 63% in the south.

Polling booths in Greenway, colour-coded according to each geographical area.
Voter groupGRN %ALP 2CP %Total votes% of ordinary votes
North3.6450.1327,40942.68
South4.3863.2120,60532.08
Central4.6456.9616,21125.24
Other votes6.3244.6514,109
Polling booths in Greenway, showing results of the 2007 election.

51 COMMENTS

  1. I agree with Nick Tyrrell. Jaymes Diaz did exceptionally well in the short time available to him. I manned a booth all day for him and it was obvious how well resourced the ALP / Rowland campaign was. At one stage, I was outnumbered 5-1, mostly by people brought in from a certain law firm.

    Apart from resources, it was clear that Labor was extremely adept at marshalling support among the area’s large Punjabi community. This is something for the Liberal Party to address in coming elections.

    By the way: I was also a scrutineer. One factor that surprised me was the unacceptably high informal vote – around 9.5 per cent at my booth. This was well above the national average and very disappointing for a booth in a relatively affluent neighbourhood. Not all blame can be apportioned to Mark Latham. Anecdotally, it seemed to me that people were using the NSW / optional preferential system (i.e. putting only 1, 2 and 3 – or simply ‘1’). Both major parties suffered from this and need to review their ‘How to vote’ cards.

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