Greenway – Election 2010

ALP 5.7%

Incumbent MP
Louise Markus, since 2004.

Geography
Western Suburbs of Sydney. Greenway covers the eastern parts of the City of Blacktown and some parts of Parramatta and Holroyd council areas. Suburbs include Lalor Park, Seven Hills, Blacktown, Toongabbie, Girraween, Pendle Hill, The Ponds and Riverstone.

Redistribution
Greenway was radically redrawn for the 2007 election, and then again for the 2010 election. At the 2007 election, Greenway covered Hawkesbury, as well as northern parts of Blacktown council area and a small part of Penrith LGA. Indeed, less than half of the population on the new boundaries were contained within Greenway, with the rest contained in Chifley and Parramatta. The redistribution flipped the margin from 4.5% for the Liberal Party to 5.7% for the ALP, completely changing the seat. Looking at the history of Greenway’s boundaries, the 2007 boundaries were an anomaly, and the 2010 boundaries more align with those used at the 2004 election and before that.

History
Greenway was first created in 1984, and was held relatively comfortably by the ALP throughout the 1980s and 1990s.

The seat was first won by Russell Gorman in 1984. Gorman had previously held Chifley from 1983 until he moved to Greenway in 1984. He was succeeded by Frank Mossfield in 1996.

Mossfield retired at the 2004 election, and the ALP stood Ed Husic, while the Liberals stood Louise Markus. The ALP’s margin had been cut to 3% at the 2001 election, and in 2004 Markus managed to win the seat.

The 2007 election saw the seat redistributed radically, and the Liberal margin was increased from 50.6% to 61.3%. A swing of almost 7% was suffered against Markus, but she held on under the new boundaries. The recent redistribution saw the boundary changes largely reversed, and the new margin saw Markus shift to the neighbouring seat of Macquarie, which is currently held by the ALP.

Candidates

  • Michelle Rowland (Labor)
  • Jaymes Diaz (Liberal)
  • Michael Santos (Independent)
  • Tony Pettitt (Australia First)
  • Allan Green (Christian Democratic Party)
  • John Baiada (Building Australia)
  • Ronaldo Villaver (Democrats)
  • Joaquim De Lima (Liberal Democrats)
  • Amarjit Tanda (Independent)
  • Paul Taylor (Greens)
  • Iris Muller (Family First)

Political situation
This seat should return to the ALP on the new boundaries. While the seat was won by the Liberal Party on similar boundaries in 2004, they were in much more favourable circumstances for the Liberals.

2007 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Louise MarkusLIB40,33850.10-5.07
Michael VassiliALP30,97338.47+9.11
Leigh WilliamsGRN4,6175.73+0.20
John PhillipsCDP1,7112.12-0.07
F IvorIND1,3431.67+1.44
Joanne MullerFF1,3121.63+0.09
Goran RevesCEC2280.28+0.16

2007 two-candidate-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Louise MarkusLIB43,88154.50-6.85
Michael VassiliALP36,64145.50+6.85

Results do not take into consideration effects of the redistribution.

Booth breakdown
I have divided booths into three areas. Those north of Westlink, those south of Fitzwilliam Road and the railway line, and those in the centre. The ALP won a majority in all three areas, although it was a slim majority in the north, about 57% in the central area, and over 63% in the south.

Polling booths in Greenway, colour-coded according to each geographical area.
Voter groupGRN %ALP 2CP %Total votes% of ordinary votes
North3.6450.1327,40942.68
South4.3863.2120,60532.08
Central4.6456.9616,21125.24
Other votes6.3244.6514,109
Polling booths in Greenway, showing results of the 2007 election.

51 COMMENTS

  1. Russ Gorman not a great talent. Mossfield was a throw back to the old ALP tradition of safe seats as retirement packages for worthy unionists. Rowland (together with the new Bradfield Lib) will add to the debate on telecommunications. But when will Gorge Williams get a seat?

  2. I met Michelle for the 1st time at the shops recently and she is one of the most refreshing (and smart). I agree its about time the ALP put up a young female for the seat rather than keep it a retirement village.

  3. David, is this correct. Venus Priest was the running mate of George Bilic for ward 4 of Blacktown Council elections in 2008 and Jayme Diaz the brother of Ward 3 Councillor Jess Diaz. Both heavily involved in the filipino community of course.

  4. Saw Michelle at Quakers Hill station the other week. It was about -5 degrees out.That’s keen. I wonder how much support she will get from local Labor branches however, having been parachuted in. On the other hand, Liberal has a “non traditional” candidate , and I remember how Louise Markus won the seat when labor put up Ed Husic. The informal vote was also huge at that election. Also, Louise has deserted Greenway, which she originally won on similar boundaries. It will be interesting.

  5. I met Jaymes Diaz at my corner shops. Seems to have a good head on his shoulders, very friendly and positive. I will vote for him. Not fond of the way Rowland stole the candidacy from Vassilli. Doesnt seem fair play. How Labor is that!

  6. Gill, no one stole the candidacy off anyone. Please keep the partisan comments off this otherwise excellent website

  7. I have known Michelle Rowland for almost 10 years having first met her when she was a youngish lawyer. She is extremely intelligent and principled. She has a great sense of humour but most importantly has an extremely strong sense of duty and serving her community. She is a local woman, born and bred, and will make a great local member – only wish she could be my local member.

  8. So James, what about partisan comments now ?

    Michelles poster are everywhere – its getting a bit annoying

    I read on Jaymes flyer he is also a lawyer and born and bred in the area too, My children go to his old primary school St Anthonys and his family have given annual rewards their for the past 10 years.

    Seems like a nice down to earth community guy.

  9. Jamye says his role model is Atty Antonio Oposa, an extremist environmentalist.

    The party got rid of Malcolm Turnbull because Australians didn’t want extreme environmental policies, why have they now offered the people of Greenway this lunatic?

    I like my big car, my expensive air-conitioner and my well watered garden.

    Please dont let this Greenie in disguise into the parliament

  10. gee lunatic? That’s a little exaggerated.

    Since when has caring about the environment qualify them as a looney?

    Maybe the greens should give their preferences to him instead of the climate change ”citizens’ assembly” party.

    It will be a really interesting election this year.

  11. So I’ve been trying to put together all the Greenway candidates, and to sum up we’ve got:

    ALP – Michelle Rowland
    LIB – Jaymes Diaz
    GRN – Paul Taylor
    AFP – Tony Pettitt

    Anyone know of any other candidates at this stage?

  12. ballot draw today, can anyone confirm the candidates yet?

    Michelle is the only one you ever see, i know there is another 3 at least

  13. I read in local paper that there was a christian democrat who is a councillor too. Allan Green I think.

  14. I was handed a flyer today, at first i thought it was for one of those discount stores, then saw that it was Jaymes flyer.

    They are so cheap and poorly put together.

    Are the Libs even trying?

  15. Derik, if you think somethings cheap, maybe you should think about the fact that the labor government has sucked up all the money we all have left.

    If money is your conern…Just vote for the party that spends the most money…and alas we’ll have Labor in government for another three years.

    I have gotten three different flyers from the Liberals. All quality and informative. The Labor ones are all the same jargon…Rowland like us blaa blaa blaa. Who does she think ‘us’ is anyway?

  16. Yawn. Budget surplus within 3 years. Stimulus kept Australia out of a recession.

    This Government has plenty of faults, but its economic management over the past few years has been one of its strengths. That people believe the constant debt garbage circled by the Coalition cheerleaders in the media is an indictment of the laziness of the Australian voter.

    Now if that economic illiterate Hockey was Treasurer….

  17. Libs might regreat allowing Markus to run off, if NSW goes as some polls suggest they could had have a chance here
    as for stimulus its the only thing keeping the economy going, everything else is very flat, but will anybody about either leader about this?

  18. I agree, i went past seven hills shops a couple days ago.
    and Michelle Rowland had like 7 posters of her face in a row, i mean thats a bit much.
    And a little too desperate. Seriously 7 posters in the same one spot. Cmon.

    I got a Labour flyer in the mail yesterday and it was all jargon about putting more money into hospitals and nurses and gps.

    Labor has been in government for a while now.
    Being a nurse myself, i think its full of s***
    Losing my job due to government not having enough funding.
    Westmead hospital, supposedly the biggest hospital in western sydney, is absolutely broke and on a massive budget cut.
    if labor really intended on doing this, it takes more than words to be rectified.

    they’ve blown all our money.

    australia is a multicultural country, has been for many years, Jaymes Diaz been a local all his life isnt trying “too hard” like labor.
    And whoever said the flyers look cheap.
    You dont need expensive fliers to get the message across.
    Its pretty straight forward.

    Liberal all the way.

  19. Difficult decision – have been trying to place postal vote and do the right thing but have been so frustrated with all representatives for government. So, if Louise Marcus has been in power for greenway and having dealt with her department for an issue and found them inept and slow, I won’t be voting for the Libs again.
    This is a great website. I’m going to make my vote count and give Michelle a go. Hopefully she can make the difference for the people of the north west.

  20. So Mark, so all the propaganda in your mailbox worked on you aye.

    Well its nice to know smart people wont fall for Labor’s desperation and intimidation and fall for a vote for the Labor party.

    Michelle Rowland has done nothing but throw paper at me for the last few months. Makes me wonder how on earth the Greens can justify giving their preferences to them.

  21. Hamish – ‘Now if that economic illiterate Hockey was Treasurer….’, what, as opposed to the economic illiterate Prime Minister, or Treasurer for that matter? You know, the bloke who didn’t understand what an internal rate of return was when he first stuffed up the RSPT. I mean, please, do we really need that sort of inept bias?

    Jeremy C – I don’t think the Libs will win this one.

  22. I said to my neighbour ‘there are so many Michelle Rowland signs in our area in Lalor Park, where are Jaymes Diaz Liberal Signs?’

    My Neighbour said ‘Michelle Rowland ate them all’.

    my, this election is getting more and more interesting.

  23. My goodness, it is really easy to see who the fascists are in this forum. Politics really brings out the best in people. I hope that none of the major parties win (what a dreamer. eh?) The Libs had 12 years, Labs almost 4. The parties promise the world enticing idiots that they can provide foresight and direction but in the end the only winners are the idiots that think they’ve won. Thus the endless cycle of simple politicians. I’ve heard some doozies that some of you actually think make good policy.
    To the more intelligent people, (god, if I say this the simpletons are going to try and respond). Don’t try and make intelligent conversation with the political fascist in this forum, their poor little amoebic brains cannot cope with alternate views.
    Good Luck with your choices – make em count.

  24. I would have thought Labor would be a shoe-in here, but the recent Labor activity in this area (e.g. Gillard’s town hall forum in Blacktown) has me curious as to whether they’re worried the Libs could pinch it.

    Or are Labor just being overly paranoid about Western Sydney?

  25. I was at Blacktown RSL to listen to Ms Gillard. A few reports I hear were talking about the population issue and the asylum seekers. The audience seemed to make that a key point as if it was the major issue of the region.
    The group at the meeting were overwhelmingly Anglo saxon , in stark contrast to the overall population of Greenway. This is going to be a safe labor seat with recent immigrants voting very strongly for Labor.
    By holding the meeting at an RSL club, Ms Gillard missed an opprtunity to talk to electrote, instead focussed on a narrow focus group , not representing the ground realities and the issues that Western Sydney faces.

  26. I want to vote Labor, but they scare me, with all the spending giveaways; i think the ets will increase power bills, why should we pay extra when the rest of the world wont commit; i think the spending will cause interest rates to rise, more mortgage defaults, which will cause lower property values, the economy may suffer in the long term with a large debt. Although i do support trade schools, health/hospitals; will Julia still be there in 2014 when the train line is to be built? All the people on the dole or receiving handouts will be voting labor.. they have foxtel, ciggerettes, beer etc.. I dont spend my money on crap like that, have been working long term, studied hard, I live in Blacktown with a 30 yr mortgage.. Although my neighours on gov handouts live in the better houses in the street.. I say if you want to share in the mining boom then invest in mining; dont try to steal the money through taxes; It has only caused loss and no gain since the tax was announced and detered foriegn cash injections and investments from overseas.

    I also want to vote Liberal but am scared of industrial relations laws being reformed in the future; their is not enough focus on education and health. Although, mainly, i do think they will bring the buget back into surplus.. which is for the better for all australians… Imagine Howard had nothing in the coffers and the GFC hit… Lucky for Rudd there was a stockpile of cash to spend once he got in.. Although Howard was a coward when he introduced his changes to workplace relations laws. Workers need protection..

  27. Also do we need to spend $43 billion on faster internet; how will this help? downloading movies? Video conferencing is good, but 43 billion is not required…

    The rail line is only 2.3 billion in support?

  28. Greenway ended up being one of the closest seats after all. It’s good to see this happening. I was rooting for Jaymes, however I knew it would be a difficult one. He was only appointed as the candidate a few weeks before the campaign started, and Rowland had an 8 month head start campaigning.

    I think Diaz performed admirably considering the lack of time and resources (as he did not receive much support from the NLP the way Rowland did from the ALP).

  29. Jaymes Diaz was a great candidate. He Showed far more integrity than that of the Labor Candidate Michelle Rowland and her filthy tactics during this campaign.

    It is a comedy that so many people in greenway fell for the deceitful tactics is of labor.

    They broke the law and abused people along the way…and the people of greenway rewarded the labor party and michelle rowland for this disgusting behaviour.

    My message to Michelle Rowland, Leo Kelly and the sad sad Labor team that they sent into our neck of the woods for the last few months…

    ‘Don’t get too confident. The margin is smaller now…every dog has his day’. Enjoy yours’.

  30. Daniel, Sam Begum, I think the LPA deserve NO (bold, underlined, exclamation, etc) sort of congratulations on the Greenway campaign. I personally would have preferred to see the well liked Nick Tyrrell selected as the candidate, as did Tony Abbott and most federal MP’s with an interest in western sydney (and a federal Liberal Government). Except for David Clarke that is, who would prefer us to be in opposition thank you very much. With only six weeks to campaign, we needed someone with posters, a name, an army of volunteers, tens of thousands of dollars – everything ready to go. Without doubt Tyrrell would have added an extra three to five percent on the Diaz result – and that has been the difference between us being in Government and now sitting in opposition for another few years. It is no use crying to head office for more funds when Diaz couldn’t raise them himself like other candidates Clarke blocked had in their pocket. By the way I did not see one poster of Diaz, and I spend a great proportion of my life in Greenway, I consider it my spiritual home. If I wasn’t a political fan, I wouldn’t know what he looks like. Everyone has seen Rowlands air brushed face a thousand times.

    Well done to Michelle for running a phenominal campaign, dirty or not it was brilliant – it’s not rocket science, you work hard, you get the results. We were absolutely MIA and deserved to lose by 20%, not get so close.

  31. Peter, you should join the Labor Party along with Nick Tyrell. The fact that you call him ‘well liked’ shows how little you must know about the libs in the greenway area.

    If greenway is your spiritual home Peter, i thank the lord that you’re real home isnt.

    Diaz had plenty of poster up, all defaced by the dirty labor party or perhaps it was that by you and nick tyrell?

    The margin would not have been so close had Diaz not been able to tap into his filipino support base. Nick tyrells support base all lies only in the seat of mitchell along with his boss Alex Hawke.

    You obviously know nothing about Greenway.

  32. I was involved in the Greenway Campaign, neither for Labor or Liberal, I do believe Nick Tyrell could have won Greenway for the Liberals, and I say this as some one who has butted heads with him on more then one occasion. I know Nick, I dare say many people in both Chifley and Greenway do, the Liberal right in Western Sydney may not be a fan of him but the fact is he’s a really well liked person. Tony Abbott, Barry O’Farrel, Gladys Berejiklian and Alex Hawke, just some of the big names in the Liberal party who support him if I’m not mistaken.

    The defacement of posters goes in every direction, I saw like a street of Michele Rowland corflutes plastered in paper that said “STOP THE BOATS” and I saw a corflute from my own party that was set on fire.

    I was told by a LIBERAL volunteer that Jaymes Diaz slept in the car while his volunteers did all the work, I was at pre-poll almost everyday for full days and I saw Jaymes there for about half an hour, hour max in all of that time. The Liberals could have won Greenway but I don’t think Jaymes was enthusiastic enough in his campaign to get the votes and I also saw many deciteful tactics used by the Liberals (one lady told people that they HAD to follow the Liberal how to vote and another followed voters into the pre-poll building)

  33. Sam, thank you for replying. Your post proves 100% of what I was trying to say – that you and many others in the Liberal party truly believe sitting in opposition is better than having a candidate who is not from David Clarke’s faction stand. Here is a scenario, we have six weeks until an election and we have to pick a candidate. Name recognition for Diaz – who is a top bloke by the way – in that time was always going to be difficult. Tyrell ( I apologise for my poor spelling, it is easy to get confused with the legendary motorsport boss) would have been the best card carrying member of the Liberal Party from Greenway to achieve that – undeniable. Undeniable. As a sitting councillor he has 80% of his ward one constituents in Greenway, he has been in the local paper more than any other councillor bar the mayor and has achieved good results fighting for residents against the heritage laws in Riverstone, state government trying to build high rise in Stanhope and tackling graffiti in streets.

    You say I know little because I say he is “well liked”. You are correct in that my knowledge of the internal machinations of the Liberal machine in Greenway is poor. You are also right in that among Liberal supporters dominated by Clarke lunatics like yourself, Tyrell is not well liked as he is not with them – the same people who put David Barker in Chifley next door, by the way. This is not what is important however. Among the constituents, he is very well recognised and very well liked – and as someone who has worked and commuted in Greenway for over ten years, who has been a booth captain for Greenway at times in the last five federal elections, I am very strongly of the opinion that these people, from all three regions (Along the Richmond line line, the Windsor and old Windsor road section north of Vardys road, and the southern section) appreciate and would only vote for that sort of dedication and recognition. That was the opinion of none other than Tony Abbott as well, mind you.

    Experienced people on this website will know I pride myself on providing honest and insightful psephological comments, calling it how it is in all directions. If not being a party lackey who simply takes orders blindly means that I don’t belong in the Liberal Party, I am prepared to accept that fate despite my political views undoubtedly belonging there. As someone who volunteered the equivalent of ten working days campaigning in half a dozen electorates, I feel I am entitled to vent my frustration when people claim we did a great job in Greenway. Only by honest assessment of how it is and what the Liberal party did wring can they move forward. Saying Diaz and the Clarke Machine in Greenway did a good job is like saying the Titanic did a great job in its maiden voyage, as it got 90% of the way to America.

  34. I am not in Greenway or Lindsay and I traditionally support the Liberal Party and was a former Liberal Party member. My personal view is not so much the profile of the candidate unless they are coming up against a very high profile candidate (e.g. McKew), but error was the fact there was so much focus on Lindsay and not Greenway or Banks or others, yet in Greenway particularly, the Liberals went closer to winning it than Lindsay. To me this suggests the Liberals really missed an opportunity to snag this seat.

    I also heard it took an age to select a candidate there. That is not a good look for a professional alternative Government.

    We used to have the same issue in Banks. Daryl Melham who was on the Board of the Revesby Workers Club could always claim the seat before we even voted. Until 1996 when the Liberals got to 2.2% and then in 1998 when they got to 1.4%. And now today, even though there has been a redistribution in the seat it is down to about 1.1% (with a 9% swing). I am not in Banks now either, or Hughes (which the north/western Georges River suburbs are now in – Picnic Point, Milperra, Revesby Heights, Panania).

    The learning here for The Liberals is that these seats are winnable with a bit of effort. Have a look at Peter Brent’s blog on the Western Sydney seats over the last 20 years. Even if there are swings required of 8-9%, the Liberals can win them if they are focussed enough and have the party support.

    In Banks, Ron Delezio is the best candidate one could have. He gained a 9% swing to him. Yet I am told that not all of the booths were manned and there were no ‘how to vote Liberal’ in many of the entrances of the polling booths. This is just poor organisation and it could literally have cost him the seat.

    I think the Liberal Party really needs to think about Sydney’s outer suburns as becoming the heartland of the new aspirationals. And it needs to plan accordingly. A proper approach could be the leg it needs to forming a new government next time.

  35. HEHEEHEHEHEHEE Nick tyrell a good candidate for a FEDERAL election? HEHEHEEE!

    I actually live in his ward (kellville ridge) and i saw the way he ran his campaign for council.

    In fact it was Nick Tyrell’s poor effort and cheesy plastic nature that made me vote INDEPENDENT for the first time in MY WHOLE LIFE.

    Nick tyrell as a federal candidate would have been a complete disaster.
    (To say Abott wanted him as a candidate shows you really truly do not know anything about the Libs not just in our area but on a national level also.)

    Poking your head into every photo the local paper takes does not make you a good councillor it makes you a media Who*re.

    Peter, you really do not know anything about our area. Part of the reason why so many of my neighbours also voted independent in the last council election was because:

    Nick was young and clearly a ONE TERM NOTHING that would NOT be in our area for the long haul.

    But saying that, i wish him (and you) all the best in Riverstone pre selections in 2015.

    Long live Alex Hawke and his Kids Army. *Salute*

  36. I don’t think Liberal people should be too harsh on the party for not running harder in Greenway, Lindsay and Banks.

    The first two didn’t come onto the radar until a few weeks before the election, and Banks not at all.

    Arguably you guys should be more cheezed off at the campaign in Robertson, Dobell, E-M and Page, especially the first two, which should have fallen on that swing.

  37. Seeing as it’s become the topic of some discussion, let me just say a couple of things about Greenway.

    Firstly, Jaymes Diaz did an exceptional job of campaigning in a seat that few people thought we could win, and with very little time to catch up to the full-time campaign that Rowland had been running since April.

    To get within one percent of Labor, when up against their well-oiled, well-funded campaign speaks volumes about the amount of effort Diaz and his supporters brought to bear in the short time we had.

    Secondly, as a party we do have an opportunity to improve our selection processes, and no doubt we’ll undertake reviews that will ensure we have candidates in the field as early as possible next time around. It was similar in the council elections of 2008 when (although less important than a federal election), candidates for Council had very little time in between preselections & the election date. For the record though, there were seats on far smaller margins than Greenway & Lindsay that didn’t fall to us, where there was a candidate selected up to twelve months out. Again, I have to make the point that Diaz did exceptionally well to achieve the swing he did.

    Thirdly, I commend Ben Hammond and others that don’t take the easy & opaque option of hiding behind pseudonyms on sites like this. Hurling abuse and anonymous accusations here does little to advance worthwhile discussion.

    Lastly, and most definitely least important: Peter, you got my last name right the first time. It’s the same as the ill-fated racing team and somewhat more successful wine label.

    There are lessons to be learned from this federal election, but there was no single factor that cost us Greenway, or silver bullet that would have made all the difference.

    Hopefully we’ll have the opportunity to learn the lessons quickly, and position ourselves to take Greenway for the Liberals at the next election.

Comments are closed.