Council margin – LNP 7.1%
Mayoral margin – LNP 8.7%
Incumbent councillor
Steve Toomey, since 2015.
Geography
North-western Brisbane. The Gap covers the suburbs of Ashgrove, Keperra, Ferny Grove and the Gap.
History
The Liberal Party’s Geraldine Knapp was first elected to represent the Gap in 1997. She was re-elected in 2000, and in 2004 with a 17% margin. She was re-elected with an increased 18.7% margin in 2008 despite an unfavourable redistribution, and again in 2012 with a 21.5% margin.
Knapp resigned in May 2015, and was replaced shortly after by the LNP’s Steven Toomey as a casual vacancy. No by-election was needed due to the impending 2016 election.
Toomey was elected to a full term in 2016 despite a massive 16% swing to Labor, but slightly improved his margin after a full term in 2020.
- Ann Aitken (Greens)
- Benjamin Long (Labor)
- Steven Toomey (Liberal National)
Assessment
The Gap will likely stay in LNP hands.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Steven Toomey | Liberal National | 12,872 | 50.6 | +1.0 |
| Daniel Bevis | Labor | 7,822 | 30.7 | -4.5 |
| Rebecca Haley | Greens | 4,317 | 17.0 | +1.8 |
| Allen Hassall | Independent | 443 | 1.7 | +1.7 |
| Informal | 504 | 1.9 |
2020 council two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Steven Toomey | Liberal National | 13,335 | 57.1 | +1.4 |
| Daniel Bevis | Labor | 10,039 | 43.0 | -1.4 |
| Exhausted | 2,080 | 8.2 |
2020 mayoral result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Adrian Schrinner | Liberal National | 13,559 | 50.4 | -1.6 |
| Pat Condren | Labor | 7,414 | 27.6 | -6.0 |
| Kath Angus | Greens | 4,857 | 18.1 | +6.7 |
| Karagh-Mae Kelly | Animal Justice | 554 | 2.1 | +2.1 |
| Jeff Hodges | Motorists Party | 194 | 0.7 | +0.7 |
| John Dobinson | Independent | 110 | 0.4 | +0.4 |
| Frank Jordan | Independent | 103 | 0.4 | +0.4 |
| Ben Gorringe | Independent | 64 | 0.2 | +0.2 |
| Jarrod Wirth | Independent | 51 | 0.2 | -0.2 |
| Informal | 547 | 2.0 |
2020 mayoral two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Adrian Schrinner | Liberal National | 14,193 | 58.7 | +1.6 |
| Pat Condren | Labor | 9,994 | 41.3 | -1.6 |
| Exhausted | 2,719 | 10.1 |
Booths in The Gap have been divided into three parts: central, east and north.
The Liberal National Party won the two-party-preferred vote in every area, ranging from 51.8% in the north to 57.8% in the east.
| Voter group | GRN prim council | LNP 2PP council | LNP 2PP mayoral | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 19.5 | 54.5 | 56.8 | 2,924 | 11.5 |
| North | 15.0 | 51.8 | 52.7 | 2,358 | 9.3 |
| East | 23.2 | 57.8 | 56.2 | 1,340 | 5.3 |
| Postal | 15.7 | 59.7 | 62.1 | 6,901 | 27.1 |
| Other votes | 16.1 | 54.1 | 55.1 | 6,257 | 24.6 |
| Pre-poll | 17.5 | 60.3 | 58.9 | 5,674 | 22.3 |
Council election results in The Gap at the 2020 Brisbane City Council election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal National Party, Labor and the Greens.
Mayoral election results in The Gap at the 2020 Brisbane City Council election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal National Party, Labor and the Greens.
Not sure why this ward has been completely slept on considering it mostly consists of federal Green territory and state Labor seats. Greens don’t seem to have been trying too hard here so not expecting a change but seems like this seat would be as credible as Holland Park or Enoggera at a glance?
Enoggera ward probably has better demographics for them- denser housing, better transit access (the Ferny Grove train line runs pretty much right through the middle of it), I’m guessing younger and less asset rich voters etc. The Gap ward has suburbs like Upper Kedron that would be very difficult for the Greens to ever do particularly well in. Having said that the Greens probably will try harder to win it next election (and Pullenvale. Maybe even Hamilton if things go really well for them). But I guess they figured they had to pare down the number of targets for this year into something achievable.
The obvious answer is resources: they could only manage to run a strong campaign in one more outside-chance ward, and ended up focusing on Enoggera over The Gap and Holland Park for whatever reason – it may just be that it’s the most marginal so if they don’t win it there’s a good chance they enable Labor to win it, it may be demographics, it may be the most convenient of the three given the resources that the local branches have.
That makes sense to me @Babalumba.
Although I could see this backfiring come Saturday evening. If there is a closer than expected result in Holland Park or The Gap then Enoggera, it would rightly raise questions about how they do their prioritisation at Greens HQ.
I’m more partial to Holland Park being a better target than The Gap, personally. I think the choice of prioritising Enoggera over Holland Park is intriguing.
I agree there, Holland Park does look generally better for them on paper – higher primary vote last BCC election, higher primary vote at the federal election, and it overlaps more with state election targets – Greenslopes and Miller are both obvious state election targets, while Ferny Grove and Stafford (which Enoggera overlaps) would be further down the list.