IND 9.4% vs LIB
Incumbent MP
Zali Steggall, since 2019.
Geography
Northern Sydney. Warringah covers parts of the Northern Beaches and Lower North Shore of Sydney, including Manly, Mosman, North Sydney, Neutral Bay, Cremorne, Cammeray, Balgowlah, Freshwater, Brookvale, Curl Curl, Wollstonecraft and Allambie Heights. The seat covers the entirety of the North Sydney and Mosman council areas and southern parts of the Northern Beaches council area.
Redistribution
Warringah lost Forestville, North Curl Curl and Killarney Heights to Mackellar. Warringah then gained the remainder of the North Sydney council area from the abolished seat of North Sydney, including the suburbs of Cremorne, Cammeray, North Sydney and Wollstonecraft.
History
Warringah was first created at the 1922 election, and has never elected a Labor candidate, electing a conservative candidate at all but one election prior to 2019. That exception was in 1937 when an independent was elected, who proceeded to join the United Australia Party shortly after his election and went on to serve as a minister in a number of conservative governments.
The seat was first won by Granville Ryrie in 1922. Ryrie had been Member for North Sydney since a 1911 by-election and was elected to Warringah unopposed. The ALP challenged him in 1925 but he managed over 80% of the vote.
Ryrie was appointed High Commissioner to London in 1927 and the by-election was won by Archdale Parkhill, in a race where the two Labor candidates polled barely 18% between them.
Parkhill had been the Lynton Crosby of early 20th Century Australian politics, coordinating many campaigns for the early Liberal Party and Nationalists over two decades. Parkhill served as a minister in the Lyons government from 1932 until 1937, serving as Minister for Defence during Lyons’ second term.
Parkhill was defeated at the 1937 election by conservative independent Percy Spender, who won the seat in a close race on preferences after falling 15% behind on primary votes. Spender went on to join the UAP shortly after his victory. Spender served in the wartime governments of Robert Menzies and Arthur Fadden and served as Minister for External Affairs until 1951, when he retired at the election before being appointed Ambassador to the United States. Spender went on to serve as Australia’s first representative on the International Court of Justice at The Hague.
Spender was succeeded in 1951 by Francis Bland, who held the seat for ten years with massive majorities, polling over 70% on two occasions and being elected unopposed on a third. He retired without ever taking a ministerial role.
Bland was succeeded in 1961 by John Cockle, who held the seat until his death shortly before the 1966 election.
Cockle was succeeded by prominent Edward St John in 1966. St John caused controversy in 1969 attacking Prime Minister John Gorton, which led him to resign from the Liberal Party, and he was defeated at the 1969 election by Liberal candidate Michael MacKellar.
MacKellar served as a minister in the Fraser government until 1982, when a scandal involving the importation of a colour television saw him resign from the ministry.
MacKellar resigned from Parliament in 1994, and the ensuing by-election was won by Tony Abbott. Abbott went on to serve as a minister for the entirety of the Howard government from 1996 to 2007, becoming a senior member of Cabinet in the last two terms of the government.
Abbott had always held Warringah by large margins over the ALP, and the first serious threat to his hold on the seat came in 2001, when Peter Macdonald, former independent member for the state seat of Manly, challenged Abbott. Macdonald polled 27% of the primary vote and came within 6% of defeating Abbott.
Abbott served as Shadow Minister for Families, Community Services and Indigenous Affairs following the Howard government’s defeat in November 2007, serving in the role under leaders Brendan Nelson and Malcolm Turnbull.
Abbott resigned from the frontbench in November 2009 in protest at Malcolm Turnbull’s support for the Emissions Trading Scheme, which triggered the collapse of Turnbull’s leadership. Abbott won a slim majority in a party room ballot against Turnbull in December 2009 and was elected Leader of the Liberal Party.
Abbott led the Coalition into the 2010 election. The Labor government lost its majority, but managed to piece together a majority with the support of crossbench MPs. Abbott led the Coalition through the next term, before winning the 2013 election. Tony Abbott served as Prime Minister until he was defeated for the Liberal leadership in September 2015.
Abbott was re-elected in 2016, but in 2019 was defeated by independent Zali Steggall. Steggall was re-elected in 2022.
Assessment
Steggall holds this seat by a sizeable margin and should be re-elected.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Zali Steggall | Independent | 41,832 | 44.8 | +1.4 | 39.8 |
| Katherine Deves | Liberal | 31,129 | 33.4 | -5.7 | 34.3 |
| David Mickleburgh | Labor | 7,806 | 8.4 | +1.8 | 12.0 |
| Kristyn Glanville | Greens | 6,910 | 7.4 | +1.3 | 7.9 |
| Andrew Robertson | United Australia | 2,202 | 2.4 | +1.7 | 2.1 |
| Steven Tripp | One Nation | 1,980 | 2.1 | +2.1 | 1.8 |
| Kate Paterson | Animal Justice | 1,475 | 1.6 | +0.2 | 1.1 |
| Others | 1.1 | ||||
| Informal | 2,829 | 2.9 | -2.1 |
2022 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Zali Steggall | Independent | 56,892 | 61.0 | +3.7 | 59.4 |
| Katherine Deves | Liberal | 36,442 | 39.0 | -3.7 | 40.6 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Katherine Deves | Liberal | 48,001 | 51.4 | -0.7 | 50.7 |
| David Mickleburgh | Labor | 45,333 | 48.6 | +0.7 | 49.3 |
Warringah has been split into four areas: Manly, Mosman, North Sydney and Warringah. Polling places on the lower north shore have been divided along local government boundaries, while those booths in the Northern Beaches council area have been split between the two former council areas of Manly and Warringah.
Independents (either Steggall or North Sydney candidate Kylea Tink) won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 58.9% in North Sydney and Mosman to 65% in Manly.
| Voter group | IND 2CP | Total votes | % of votes |
| North Sydney | 58.9 | 19,026 | 16.9 |
| Warringah | 61.9 | 12,859 | 11.5 |
| Manly | 65.0 | 12,685 | 11.3 |
| Mosman | 58.9 | 8,146 | 7.3 |
| Pre-poll | 58.7 | 40,897 | 36.4 |
| Other votes | 56.1 | 18,650 | 16.6 |
Election results in Warringah at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Independent vs Liberal), two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for independent candidates, the Liberal Party and Labor.
Anonycat-I agree Steggall is likely to hold on-I doubt she will do so comfortably.She has been the beneficiary of large swings to her in previous elections and the pendulum is due to swing back.
You have overlooked that her electorate now includes North Sydney, so the unpopularity of North Sydney Council will have an impact.
Rates is a non-issue outside a few liberal party councilors trying to stir up trouble. Rates are still very low and when I moved from interstate I thought my annual rates were for a quarter cf the rates in other parts of the country. Also, being a completely unrepresentative part of the country where cost of living pressures equals two weeks skiing in whistler rather than three and the locals at Balmoral tell me the $20 per parking on Sunday should be higher to keep poor people (like me) away from their beach (I am serious – albeit they are in Mosman Council cf North Sydney) I won’t cry too much about an increase in rates…..
Zali to retain easily. Agree JR has been a better candidate than last time but ZS is now a better politician than what she was for the last two elections….
Based on youtube one would think that the only people running are Trumpets for Patriots. But haven’t seen much of a ground game.
@Pollster you’ve started to get Trumpet of Patriots ads already? Last time out I got a seven minute unskippable ad on YouTube. Ridiculous.
I saw some Liberal corflutes on Sydney Road this past weekend.
As for the council rates issue, people compare before and after in their own councils. A double digit rise per year would definitely agitate people.
driving from Warringah Mall through to the bridge on the weekend was 50/50 corflutes between steggall and the libs
On socials Steggall also saying that their is a truck driving around funded by “Australians for Prosperity” that has attack on her with a typo in her name (“steggal”) that also matches some recent vandalism of her campaign material
It is interesting the rates – I do some work for a Council on the North Shore (not quite the Northern Beaches but very close by) and they went for a rate rise. I provided them my rates notices for two properties within interstate CBDs and the Council staff were shocked by the amount of rates interstate (i.e. 2 * the North Shore Council rates). So rates are too low in NSW.
As a resident the rates rise is a weird thing to try to tie to Steggall, especially as she’s federal and was in a different area. As mentioned the rates we pay are very low (advantage of high density living) and people generally aren’t struggling to find money to feed themselves. The hatred is more around the reason for the rate rise, aka that damn pool which was Liberal party pork barreling so if anything if that becomes any sort of factor I’d expect it to hurt the Liberals (though to be honest I just don’t think it will feature at all)
Very strong swings to the teal in North Sydney LGA (comparing Zali Steggall with Kylea Tink).
https://www.tallyroom.com.au/60550
The senate primary votes show a tilt to the left.
Labor 36.6%
LNP 35.0%
Greens 15.1%
LCA 2.4%
PHON 2.0%
This is a question that has been stirring around my mind recently, but I don’t want to necropost on the threads for North Sydney or NSW redistribution, so I guess this would be the best place to ask considering North Sydney is now in Warringah.
In a hypothetical scenario where an expansion of Parliament reestablishes an electorate around North Sydney, should the North Sydney name be brought back or should it be retired forever in favour of honouring people like Ted Mack or John Howard (when he passes)
@Lurking Westie – I do concur with you. I also do support the name ‘Gibbs’ after May Gibbs, an author who’s home is located in Neutral Bay. Either of them works.
@lurking i would support the recreation of North Sydney the same as Higgins in Victoria. NSW will probbly get an additional 8 seats so plenty of other plaes
The AEC isn’t keen on using geographical names for electorates, especially ones that contain another electorate’s name. North Sydney contains another electorate’s name.
whihc electorate?
@james it doesnt matter where there persons house was/is. boundaries change. thats the same argument people in WA tried to use to change Bullwinkel to Beard
@John, North Sydney contains the name Sydney. The AEC doesn’t like that. I think that’s why the names Port Adelaide and Melbourne Ports got axed.
I mean North Sydney, Port Adelaide and Melbourne Ports contain another electorates’ names. I think they avoid such names to minimise confusion.
North Sydney was only abolished due to the numbers being so under quota on the north shore otherwise it would still exist.
Though while we are on the subject a name I’ve come up with for Victoria would be Kelly. After Ned Kelly.
AEC would be hangin’ out to name an electorate Johnson, though they’d be battlin’ to find a prominent Johnson.
Perhaps Les Johnson, longtime Labor MHR from the Whitlam era??
@John July 5, 2025 at 5:33 pm
I think Votante was referring to why North Sydney specifically was abolished when theoretically, any seat in Northern Sydney (Bradfield, Warringah, Mackellar, Bennelong) could have been abolished due to the general area being under quota.
Also I think Votante brings up an interesting, but minor issue that a potential expansion of parliament could run into: potential names that could be confused with existing electorate names. So names like Bland or Hawker can’t be used because it could potentially be confused with Brand and Hawke. Unfortunately this might mean we might not get an electorate named after Don Bradman or Nellie Melba because it could be confused with the existing electorate of Bradfield and Melbourne.
North Sydney was abolished because of the consensus the area was under quota it would be impossible to abolish warringah and Mackellar as they were corner seats so the logical choice was north Sydney. And it could be dived up easily by neighbouring seats. I suggested north Sydney for this reason.
@Lurking Westie, you read my mind there about the naming. There are two electorates beginning with ‘Brad’ – Bradfield and Braddon and so it’s unlikely we’ll see an electorate called Bradman anytime soon.
The majority of the old Warringah is a part of the current Warringah. My point is that the name North Sydney had to be retired sooner or later for the reasons that it is a suburb name and also adds to confusion as you’d mentioned.
I’ve always thought that Casey could be renamed to Melba after Nellie Melba, however I see a few issues:
1. There is Melbourne which sounds very similar/could cause confusion.
2. There’s a council ward around Lilydale (in the electorate) that is called Melba Ward.
3. Richard Casey, the namesake of Casey, was a very significant Australia with a high role in society. I do feel he is worthy of an electoral division name due to his contributions in society.
The net positive would be that the association with the City of Casey would be removed, reducing confusion between both areas.
I could see a Bradman in SA, but yes, having three is similar; however, they are in different states, and only AEC personnel might get confused on election night.
With absolutely no disrespect to the singer, “Melba” is an unusual-sounding name for many people. For those of us under a certain age, the first thing that comes to mind is teething problems for children.
As far as Casey, what is the precedent for reusing a division name in another electorate not connected with the original?
https://www.aec.gov.au/electorates/redistributions/guidelines.htm
AEC says no, but I have never looked into it in the past.
Craig Bradman is more associated with nsw as that’s where he was born
Also several seat names have been abolished then recreated in the past in totally different areas Parkes, Cook, Watson, Scullin, Isaac’s, corinella, Burke,
Bradman would be in the Southern Highlands. You could also use Irwin and Warren as names; Irwin would be on the Sunny Coast and Warren would be in Sydney.
The only names that will come back are those of former Prime Ministers. Burke and Corinella are very unlikely to come back for a third go in the current climate and Corinella is geographical. If Isaacs was to go, it might come back as Isaac Isaacs was first Australian GG but in the current climate unlikely. As for names sounding ‘like’ other names that is a pretty specious for rejecting a name if the merit is there and is a serious underestimation of the nations intelligence. OK – Fraser and Frazer would be confusing or Smith and Smyth but otherwise …..
@np it doesnt need to be in a geographic region related to Bradman . i doubt the southern highlands will get another seat anytime soon. based on the current numbers the seats would be on the north and south coasts, the hunter and sw and nw sydney
who is Warren named after btw? also i think Irwin is almost a given at the next qld redistribution. hard to find an australian that has a beef with steve irwin or don bradman. both legendary australians
@redistributed are you saying that the AEC is anti-Semitic?
Sheriff
No. I am not saying that the AEC is anti-semitic. No, that the AEC does not have an appetite to name electorates after dead white males who were not PM.
Especially long dead white males.
@redistributed so your saying they sexist and racist?
Ned Kelly was a criminal who contributed nothing to Australia’s modern parliamentary democracy. You may as well name divisions Bond, Skase and Chopper.
As for the argument that a division name wouldn’t be rejected because it sounds like something else, let me remind you of the Division of Corangamite’s alternate name from a previous redistribution.
@Real Talk
And another alternate name for Corangamite from a previous redistribution merely for rhyming with something else!
(I’m not sure if that’s the full story but it’s funny nonetheless.)
@redistributed July 7, 2025 at 10:42 am
In terms of rejecting names that might sound similar to existing seat names I do admit that using Bradman-Bradfield might’ve been stretching the issue a bit too far; hence, I tried to phrase the Bradman example as a possibility but not a certainty. However, names like Hawker-Hawke and even Siggins (after Selina Siggins)-Higgins (VIC) could be confusing.
In terms of reviving electorate names, most should be able to come back in the event of a hypothetical expansion to the House of Representatives. The only names that would be rejected are geographical names, Bland (confusion with Brand), Tasmanian seats and names of figures that have been rejected by the community due to their personal roles in Aboriginal massacres like McMillan and Batman (despite not being rejected by the community I could see Stirling not being revived for the same reason).
@john July 7, 2025 at 11:10 am
I assume it might be Johnny Warren, a famous soccer/football player?
@Real Talk July 7, 2025 at 5:34 pm
The argument is that a name could be rejected because it would be similar to another existing seat in Parliament. As far as I can remember, no seat in Parliament has a similar sounding name to Tucker.
@Real Talk July 7, 2025 at 5:34 pm
Forgot to add this in my original comment but Ned Kelly is a significant Australian cultural figure who is positively seen by the public as a hero who rebelled against a corrupt and unfair police system. There is some merit to consider naming an electorate after him even if they didn’t specifically contribute to Australian democracy. I think the threshold was that they had to contribute to Australia in general, which is why we got Bullwinkel (nurse) and Kingsford Smith (aviator)
I wasn’t referring to the proposed Division of Tucker, but the proposed Division of Cox.
If we disqualified our politicians for rhyming with Tucker, there’d be nobody left.
@John, Warren would be named after Johnny Warren. Probably the most well known Socceroo isn’t alive anymore. And I agree, Irwin should certainly be a seat.
@Real Talk, where was Ned Kelly brought up? I can’t seem to find the comment.
@Nicholas, it was a lack of notability plus the risk of vandalism if I recall correctly. The letter T can easily be vandalised to become an F. Maybe if it was another letter the story might’ve been different (e.g Rucker). As for Cox I believe that was similarly for a lack of notability and the absurdity of being “the member for Cox” (despite Bonner and Dickson existing already). Australia has a lot of funny place names but I guess being the member for that place is where we draw the line?
@NP – John’s contribution on July 5, 2025 at 5:33 pm
There’s no need for a new electorate name anytime soon in NSW because NSW’s share of the Australian population is declining. This is unless the share grows or parliament expands.
When new electorates are to be named after people, I prefer that those people be long-term Australian residents and preferrably died post-federation. Even though Flinders and Bass were never residents here, I’m ok with their electorate names. Ned Kelly was executed before federation. I doubt that the AEC would want to memorialise a convicted criminal.
Naming an electorate Groo is dodgy, imo. Who the hell remembers Lyttleton Groom?
Flynn is another one, John Flynn was in my Social Studies textbook in 1964, but who remembers him now? He was also a racist, which one might think would be disqualifying?
Herbert has certain connotations in England since Alec Guinness gave it as his first name when arrested for cottaging in the Fifties. However, Herbert existed before that, so the AEC gets a pass there.
I’d assumed Blair commemorated Colonial era Premier Sir James Blair, but in fact it’s named for Aboriginal Opera singer Eric Blair. The only contemporary Blair that comes to mind fro that time is the late ABC personality Blair Edmonds.
real talk that depends on who you ask i say he was man pushed to the edge by corrupt police officers who had it in for him. he stood against corruption and injustice. also it would be Read not Chopper. Chopper was a nickname for Mark Read.
Lurking ive never heard of Johnny Warren tbh. but you would be hard to find an australian that hasnt heard of Donald Bradman.
Also yes i agree on Ned Kelly he was viewed positively by the public both in his time and still today. he stould against a corrupt and unfair system specifically against police. i have personally had my own tustle with victoria police and i can tell you that the same culture still exists. how many times do you see police ganging up and beating/assaulting disabled people? or throughout covid when they sent 8 cops to arrest a woman who organised a protest and you overhanded tactics towards elderly ladies sitting alone on a park bench. but they cant stop a group of thugs walking down the streets of sydney and occupying the opera house chanting “gas the jews”? they think they are above the law simply because they have a badge and gun issued by the state. they are nothing more then a gang at times the only difference is they have the backing of the state.
@votante we are refering to if/when the parliament eventually expands
also in regards to ned kelly being a convicted criminal. one could argue that conviction was a result of the persecution of the state against him
At least 30,000 people opposed Ned Kelly’s execution and signed a petition seeking a reprieve. Additionally, a crowd of 5,000 gathered outside Melbourne Gaol on the day of his execution. There was also a petition with 60,000 signatures opposing the execution, which was one-fifth of Melbourne’s population at the time. ultimately its a matter for the people to oppose such a name isnt it?
It makes you wonder why there hasn’t been a Division of Kelly created in the 124 years of federal parliament. It’s almost like its not an appropriate name, either then or now.
Thanks for the correction re: Read. Didn’t want to get it confused with the existing Division of Reid. 🙃
because noone suggested it.
@Real Talk July 8, 2025 at 12:38 pm
Far worse people than Ned Kelly have had an electorate named in their honour. My main example here being Angus McMillan, the main perpetrator of the Gippsland Massacres against the Gunaikurnai people.
yea but i think ned kelly is probably viewed a bit more positively by the population and if you asked them who both Ned Kelly was and Angus McMillan was most people would recognise Ned Kelly and have no idea who McMillan was
@john:
Amazing figures for Ned Kelly, it was a different Australia, that’s for sure. On naming, there was a mix up when Leichhardt was created in 1949. He went missing in what is now Kennedy, while Kennedy was speared in Cape York, Leichhardt since 1949.
I humbly suggest swapping the names and naming a new west of Toowooba seat Jerome, after Jerry Jerome, famous professional foot runner and champion boxer from the 1890s to 1920. He also ran 100 yards backwards in 14 s. Don Bradman never did that, let alone Gladys Moncrieff.
If the best argument for naming a federal division after someone is ‘well, they’re famous and people like them’, then we’re one step away from the Division of Farnham, the Division of Warne, and the Division of Skippy.